Muchos más demócratas registrados votaron por correo que republicanos registrados. [16] [17] Como resultado de una gran cantidad de votos por correo, algunos estados clave sufrieron demoras en el recuento y la presentación de los votos; esto llevó a los principales medios de comunicación a retrasar su proyección de Biden y Harris como presidente y vicepresidente electos hasta la mañana del 7 de noviembre, tres días y medio después de la elección. Las principales cadenas de medios proyectan un estado para un candidato una vez que existe una alta confianza estadística de que es poco probable que los votos pendientes impidan que el ganador proyectado gane en última instancia ese estado. [18]
Biden finalmente recibió la mayoría en el Colegio Electoral con 306 votos electorales, mientras que Trump recibió 232. Trump fue el primer presidente en perder la reelección desde George HW Bush en 1992. La clave para la victoria de Biden fueron sus victorias en los estados de tendencia demócrata del Cinturón del Óxido de Michigan , Pensilvania y Wisconsin , que Trump ganó por un estrecho margen en 2016 y cuyos 46 votos electorales combinados fueron suficientes para inclinar la elección a favor de cualquiera de los candidatos. Los totales de votos electorales (306 votos electorales comprometidos ganados por Biden y 232 votos electorales comprometidos ganados por Trump) fueron idénticos al número de votos electorales comprometidos ganados por Trump y Hillary Clinton respectivamente en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016 , sin considerar los ajustes debidos a electores infieles . Biden también se convirtió en el primer demócrata en ganar una elección presidencial en Georgia desde 1992 y en Arizona desde 1996 , así como en el segundo distrito del Congreso de Nebraska desde 2008 . [19] [20]
Antes, durante y después del día de las elecciones, Trump y muchos otros republicanos participaron en un intento agresivo y sin precedentes [21] de subvertir la elección y anular los resultados , [22] alegando falsamente un fraude electoral generalizado y tratando de influir en el proceso de recuento de votos en los estados clave [23] en lo que se ha descrito como un intento de autogolpe de estado . [24] [25] El fiscal general William Barr y los funcionarios de cada uno de los 50 estados no encontraron evidencia de fraude generalizado o irregularidades en las elecciones. [26] [27] Las agencias federales que supervisan la seguridad electoral dijeron que fue la más segura en la historia de Estados Unidos. [28] [29] [30] La campaña de Trump y sus aliados, incluidos los miembros republicanos del Congreso , [31] continuaron participando en numerosos intentos de anular los resultados de las elecciones mediante la presentación de numerosas demandas en varios estados (la mayoría de las cuales fueron retiradas o desestimadas), [32] difundiendo teorías de conspiración que alegaban fraude, [33] presionando a los funcionarios electorales estatales republicanos (incluido, en particular, el Secretario de Estado de Georgia , Brad Raffensperger , en una llamada telefónica que luego se hizo ampliamente publicitada ) y a los legisladores para cambiar los resultados, [34] presionando al Departamento de Justicia para que declarara las elecciones "corruptas" e interviniera, [35] [36] objetando la certificación del Colegio Electoral en el Congreso, [37] [38] y negándose a cooperar con la transición presidencial de Joe Biden . [25] Después de que Trump prometiera que nunca concedería la elección y exhortara a sus seguidores a "luchar como el infierno", una turba de partidarios de Trump atacó el Capitolio de los Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021, durante la sesión conjunta del Congreso celebrada para certificar el recuento del Colegio Electoral. [39] El 7 de enero, Trump reconoció a la administración entrante sin mencionar el nombre de Biden. [40] Biden y Harris tomaron posesión el 20 de enero de 2021; rompiendo con la tradición, Trump no asistió a la toma de posesión de su sucesor. [41] Trump fue acusado el 1 de agosto de 2023 de cuatro cargos relacionados con conspirar para anular los resultados.
Fondo
Procedimiento
El artículo dos de la Constitución de los Estados Unidos establece que para que una persona pueda ejercer como presidente, debe ser ciudadano por nacimiento de los Estados Unidos , tener al menos 35 años de edad y haber residido en los Estados Unidos durante al menos 14 años. Los candidatos a la presidencia suelen buscar la nominación de uno de los diversos partidos políticos de los Estados Unidos. Cada partido desarrolla un método (como una elección primaria ) para elegir al candidato que el partido considera más adecuado para postularse al cargo. Las elecciones primarias suelen ser elecciones indirectas en las que los votantes emiten su voto para una lista de delegados del partido comprometidos con un candidato en particular. Luego, los delegados del partido nominan oficialmente a un candidato para que se presente en nombre del partido. El candidato presidencial generalmente elige a un compañero de fórmula para vicepresidente para formar la candidatura de ese partido , que luego es ratificada por los delegados en la convención del partido (a excepción del Partido Libertario , que nomina a su candidato a vicepresidente por votación de los delegados independientemente de la preferencia del candidato presidencial). Las elecciones generales de noviembre también son elecciones indirectas, en las que los votantes emiten su voto para una lista de miembros del Colegio Electoral ; estos electores luego eligen directamente al presidente y vicepresidente. [42] Si ningún candidato recibe el mínimo de 270 votos electorales necesarios para ganar la elección , la Cámara de Representantes de los Estados Unidos seleccionará al presidente entre los tres candidatos que recibieron la mayor cantidad de votos electorales, y el Senado de los Estados Unidos seleccionará al vicepresidente entre los candidatos que recibieron los dos totales más altos. La elección presidencial se llevó a cabo simultáneamente junto con las elecciones para la Cámara de Representantes , el Senado y varias elecciones a nivel estatal y local . [43]
En agosto de 2019, la Legislatura de Maine aprobó un proyecto de ley que adoptaba el sistema de votación por orden de preferencia (RCV, por sus siglas en inglés) tanto para las primarias presidenciales como para las elecciones generales. [44] [45] La gobernadora Janet Mills permitió que el proyecto de ley se convirtiera en ley sin su firma, lo que retrasó su entrada en vigor hasta después de las primarias demócratas de 2020 en marzo y convirtió a Maine en el primer estado en utilizar el RCV para una elección general presidencial. El Partido Republicano de Maine presentó firmas para un referéndum de veto para impedir el uso del RCV para las elecciones de 2020, pero el Secretario de Estado Matthew Dunlap determinó que no había suficientes firmas válidas para calificar para la boleta. Un desafío en la Corte Superior de Maine tuvo éxito para el Partido Republicano de Maine, pero la Corte Suprema Judicial de Maine [46] [47] suspendió el fallo pendiente de apelación el 8 de septiembre de 2020. [48] Sin embargo, las papeletas comenzaron a imprimirse más tarde ese día sin el referéndum de veto e incluyendo RCV para la elección presidencial, [49] [50] y la Corte falló a favor del secretario de estado el 22 de septiembre, permitiendo que se utilizara RCV. [51] Una apelación de emergencia a la Corte Suprema fue denegada el 6 de octubre. [52] La ley continúa el uso del método del distrito del Congreso para la asignación de los electores de Maine ( Nebraska es el único otro estado que distribuye sus votos electorales de esta manera). [53] Si bien no se necesitaron múltiples rondas de recuento de votos debido a que un solo candidato recibió una mayoría de votos de primera opción en todo el estado y en cada distrito, el uso de RCV complica la interpretación del voto popular nacional porque los votantes son más propensos a votar por candidatos de terceros partidos o independientes. [54]
El 14 de diciembre de 2020, los electores comprometidos de cada candidato, conocidos colectivamente como el Colegio Electoral de los Estados Unidos , se reunieron en los capitolios de sus estados para emitir sus votos oficiales. De conformidad con los procesos establecidos por la Ley de Recuento Electoral de 1887, los certificados de verificación que enumeran los nombres de los electores y los certificados separados que registran sus votos se distribuyen a varios funcionarios de las ramas del gobierno. [55] [56] [57] El Congreso recién elegido, presidido por el vicepresidente en su papel de presidente del Senado, se reunió en una sesión conjunta para abrir formalmente los certificados y contar los votos, que comenzó el 6 de enero de 2021, fue interrumpida por el ataque al Capitolio de los Estados Unidos del 6 de enero y terminó al día siguiente. [58]
Elecciones simultáneas
Las elecciones presidenciales se llevaron a cabo simultáneamente con las elecciones al Senado y la Cámara de Representantes . También se celebraron elecciones para gobernador y legislatura en varios estados. Para las elecciones posteriores, se realizó la distribución de los escaños de la Cámara entre los 50 estados en función de los resultados del censo de los Estados Unidos de 2020 , y los estados llevaron a cabo la redistribución de distritos de los distritos legislativos estatales y del Congreso. En la mayoría de los estados, el gobernador y la legislatura estatal llevan a cabo la redistribución de distritos, aunque algunos estados tienen comisiones de redistribución de distritos . A menudo, un partido que gana una elección presidencial experimenta un efecto de arrastre que también ayuda a otros candidatos de ese partido a ganar elecciones. [59] El partido que ganó las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 también podría haber obtenido una ventaja significativa en el trazado de nuevos distritos legislativos estatales y del Congreso, que permanecerían en vigor hasta 2032. [60]
Nominaciones
Partido Demócrata
El Partido Demócrata eligió a su candidato en las primarias presidenciales del Partido Demócrata de 2020. Joe Biden se convirtió en el candidato presunto del Partido Demócrata el 5 de junio de 2020, cuando consiguió suficientes delegados para asegurar su nominación en la convención nacional. [61] Biden eligió a Kamala Harris como su candidata a la vicepresidencia, y la fórmula fue nominada formalmente en la convención el 18 de agosto. [62]
Partido Republicano
El presidente en ejercicio Donald Trump y el vicepresidente en ejercicio Mike Pence lograron fácilmente la nominación después de que Trump recibiera suficientes delegados en las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2020. Fueron nominados formalmente en la Convención Nacional Republicana el 24 de agosto de 2020. [63] [64]
Partido Libertario
Jo Jorgensen , quien fue compañera de fórmula del autor Harry Browne en 1996 , recibió la nominación libertaria en la convención nacional el 23 de mayo de 2020. [65] Logró acceso a las boletas en los 50 estados y el Distrito de Columbia. [66]
Partido Verde
Howie Hawkins se convirtió en el candidato presunto del Partido Verde el 21 de junio de 2020 y fue nominado oficialmente por el partido el 11 de julio de 2020. [67] [68] Hawkins consiguió acceso a las papeletas electorales en 29 estados y el Distrito de Columbia, lo que representa 381 votos electorales, y acceso por escrito en 16 estados más, lo que representa 130 votos electorales. [69] [70] [e]
La Convención Nacional Demócrata de 2020 se programó originalmente del 13 al 16 de julio en Milwaukee , Wisconsin , [73] [74] [75] pero se retrasó al 17 al 20 de agosto debido a los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19 . [76] El 24 de junio de 2020, se anunció que la convención se llevaría a cabo en un formato mixto en línea en persona, con la mayoría de los delegados asistiendo de forma remota, pero algunos todavía asistiendo al sitio físico de la convención. [77] El 5 de agosto, la parte en persona de la convención se redujo aún más; los discursos principales, incluido el de Biden, se cambiaron a un formato virtual. [78]
La Convención Nacional Republicana de 2020 se llevó a cabo del 24 al 27 de agosto en Charlotte, Carolina del Norte , y en varios lugares remotos. Originalmente, se había planeado una convención de tres días para celebrarse en Carolina del Norte, pero debido a la insistencia de Carolina del Norte en que la convención siguiera las reglas de distanciamiento social por el COVID-19, los discursos y las celebraciones se trasladaron a Jacksonville, Florida (los asuntos oficiales de la convención todavía estaban obligados por contrato a realizarse en Charlotte). [79] [80] Debido al empeoramiento de la situación con respecto al COVID-19 en Florida, los planes allí se cancelaron y la convención se trasladó de nuevo a Charlotte en una capacidad reducida. [81]
La Convención Nacional Libertaria de 2020 originalmente estaba programada para celebrarse en Austin, Texas , durante el fin de semana del Día de los Caídos del 22 al 25 de mayo, [82] [83] pero todas las reservas en el JW Marriott Downtown Austin para la convención se cancelaron el 26 de abril debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. [84] El Comité Nacional Libertario finalmente decidió que el partido celebraría dos convenciones, una en línea del 22 al 24 de mayo para seleccionar a los candidatos presidenciales y vicepresidentes y otra en una convención física en Orlando, Florida , del 8 al 12 de julio para otros asuntos. [85]
La Convención Nacional Verde de 2020 originalmente iba a celebrarse en Detroit , Michigan , del 9 al 12 de julio. [75] Debido a la pandemia de COVID-19, la convención se celebró en línea, sin cambio de fecha. [86]
Esta es la segunda vez que un presidente ha sido sometido a un juicio político durante su primer mandato mientras se postula para un segundo mandato. [90] [i] Trump continuó realizando mítines de campaña durante el juicio político. [92] [93] Esta es también la primera vez desde que se establecieron las primarias presidenciales modernas en 1911 que un presidente ha sido sometido a un juicio político mientras la temporada de primarias estaba en marcha. [94] El proceso de juicio político se superpuso con las campañas primarias, lo que obligó a los senadores que se postulaban para la nominación demócrata a permanecer en Washington para el juicio en los días anteriores y posteriores a las asambleas electorales de Iowa. [95] [96]
Efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19
Estados y territorios con al menos una elección primaria local, estatal o federal con fecha o método de votación modificados a partir del 5 de agosto de 2020.
Varios eventos relacionados con las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 se alteraron o pospusieron debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en curso en los Estados Unidos y sus efectos, como las órdenes de quedarse en casa y las pautas de distanciamiento social de los gobiernos locales. El 10 de marzo, después de las elecciones primarias en seis estados, los candidatos demócratas Joe Biden y Bernie Sanders cancelaron los eventos de la noche de campaña planificados y más campañas en persona y mítines de campaña. [97] [98] El 12 de marzo, Trump también declaró su intención de posponer más mítines de campaña. [99] El 11.º debate demócrata se celebró el 15 de marzo sin público en los estudios de CNN en Washington, DC. [100] Varios estados también pospusieron sus primarias a una fecha posterior, incluidos Georgia, [101] Kentucky, [102] Luisiana, [103] Ohio, [104] y Maryland. [105] Al 24 de marzo de 2020, todos los candidatos presidenciales de los principales partidos habían suspendido las campañas presenciales y los actos de campaña por temor al COVID-19. Los analistas políticos especularon en ese momento que la moratoria a las campañas tradicionales, sumada a los efectos de la pandemia en la nación, podría tener efectos impredecibles en la población votante y, posiblemente, en la forma en que se llevarán a cabo las elecciones. [106] [107] [108]
Un trabajador electoral desinfecta una cabina electoral en Davis, California
Algunas elecciones primarias presidenciales se vieron gravemente perturbadas por cuestiones relacionadas con la COVID-19, como largas colas en los centros de votación, un gran aumento de las solicitudes de papeletas de voto en ausencia y problemas tecnológicos. [109] Debido a la escasez de trabajadores electorales capaces o dispuestos a trabajar durante la pandemia, el número de centros de votación se redujo considerablemente. La mayoría de los estados ampliaron o fomentaron la votación por correo como alternativa, pero muchos votantes se quejaron de que nunca recibieron las papeletas de voto en ausencia que habían solicitado. [110]
La Ley de Ayuda, Alivio y Seguridad Económica por el Coronavirus de marzo de 2020 incluyó dinero para que los estados aumentaran el voto por correo. En mayo, Trump y su campaña se opusieron firmemente al voto por correo, alegando que causaría un fraude electoral generalizado, una creencia que ha sido desacreditada por varios medios de comunicación. [111] [112] La respuesta del gobierno al impacto de la pandemia por parte de la administración Trump, junto con las diferentes posiciones adoptadas por los demócratas y republicanos del Congreso con respecto al estímulo económico , se convirtió en un tema de campaña importante para ambos partidos. [113] [114]
El 6 de abril, la Corte Suprema y los republicanos de la Legislatura estatal de Wisconsin rechazaron la solicitud del gobernador de Wisconsin, Tony Evers, de trasladar las elecciones de primavera del estado a junio. Como resultado, las elecciones, que incluyeron una primaria presidencial, se llevaron a cabo el 7 de abril como estaba previsto. [115] Al menos siete nuevos casos de COVID-19 se rastrearon hasta esta elección. Los defensores del derecho al voto expresaron su temor a un caos similar a escala nacional en noviembre, recomendando que los estados avancen para ampliar las opciones de voto por correo. [116]
El 20 de junio de 2020, la campaña de Trump celebró un mitin en persona en Tulsa, Oklahoma , después de que la Corte Suprema de Oklahoma dictaminara que el evento podía seguir adelante a pesar de las continuas preocupaciones por el COVID-19. [117] La asistencia al mitin fue mucho menor de lo esperado, siendo descrito como un "fracaso", y provocó un empeoramiento significativo de las relaciones entre Trump y su director de campaña, Brad Parscale . [118] 7,7 millones de personas vieron el evento en Fox News, un récord de audiencia del sábado para ese canal. [119] Tres semanas después del mitin, el Departamento de Salud del Estado de Oklahoma registró cifras récord de casos de COVID-19, [120] y el ex candidato presidencial republicano Herman Cain murió a causa del virus, aunque no se confirmó que contrajera la enfermedad debido a su asistencia al mitin. [121]
El 2 de octubre de 2020, Trump y la primera dama Melania Trump dieron positivo por SARS-CoV-2 luego de una prueba positiva de su asesora principal, Hope Hicks , como parte del brote más amplio de COVID-19 entre el personal de la Casa Blanca . Tanto el presidente como la primera dama entraron inmediatamente en cuarentena, lo que impidió que Trump siguiera haciendo campaña, en particular en los mítines de campaña. [122] [123] [124] Más tarde ese día, el presidente fue ingresado en el Centro Médico Militar Nacional Walter Reed con fiebre baja, donde se informó que había recibido un tratamiento experimental con anticuerpos. [125] [126] El diagnóstico de Trump se produjo solo dos días después de haber compartido el escenario con Biden en el primer debate presidencial y planteado la posibilidad de que Biden hubiera contraído el virus de Trump; Biden dio negativo. [127] [128] Trump fue dado de alta del hospital el 5 de octubre. [129]
El hecho de que a Trump le hayan diagnosticado COVID-19 fue visto ampliamente como un efecto negativo en su campaña y desvió la atención del público hacia el COVID-19, un tema que generalmente se considera una responsabilidad para Trump, debido a que su respuesta a la pandemia de COVID-19 sufrió bajos índices de aprobación. [130] [131] Estar en cuarentena también significó que Trump no pudo asistir a los mítines, que fueron una parte importante de su campaña. Como resultado de que Trump contrajo COVID-19, Biden continuó haciendo campaña, pero dejó temporalmente de publicar anuncios de ataque en su contra. [132] [133] El 12 de octubre, una semana después de su alta del hospital, Trump reanudó los mítines en persona. [129] Trump continuó viajando a estados en disputa y celebrando mítines masivos, a veces dos o tres en un día. Sus mítines fueron criticados por su falta de distanciamiento social o uso de mascarillas, y algunas encuestas sugirieron que los votantes lo veían con menos favor por poner en peligro potencialmente a los asistentes. [134] [135]
Interferencia extranjera
Los funcionarios estadounidenses acusaron a Rusia , China e Irán de intentar influir en las elecciones estadounidenses de 2020. [136] [137] El 4 de octubre de 2019, Microsoft anunció que " Phosphorus ", un grupo de piratas informáticos vinculado al gobierno iraní , había intentado comprometer las cuentas de correo electrónico pertenecientes a periodistas, funcionarios del gobierno estadounidense y la campaña de un candidato presidencial estadounidense. [138] [139] La Voz de América, propiedad del gobierno estadounidense, informó en abril de 2020 que "los investigadores de seguridad de Internet dicen que ya ha habido señales de que piratas informáticos aliados de China han participado en los llamados ataques de ' spear-phishing ' contra objetivos políticos estadounidenses antes de la votación de 2020". El portavoz chino Geng Shuang negó las acusaciones y dijo que "esperaría que el pueblo de Estados Unidos no arrastrara a China a su política electoral". [140]
El 13 de febrero de 2020, funcionarios de inteligencia estadounidenses informaron a los miembros del Comité de Inteligencia de la Cámara de Representantes que Rusia estaba interfiriendo en las elecciones de 2020 en un esfuerzo por lograr la reelección de Trump. [141] [142] La sesión informativa fue realizada por Shelby Pierson , el principal funcionario de seguridad electoral de la comunidad de inteligencia y asistente del director interino de Inteligencia Nacional , Joseph Maguire . El 21 de febrero, The Washington Post informó que, según funcionarios estadounidenses anónimos, Rusia estaba interfiriendo en las primarias demócratas en un esfuerzo por apoyar la nominación del senador Bernie Sanders . Sanders emitió una declaración después de la noticia, diciendo en parte: "No me importa, francamente, quién quiere Putin que sea presidente. Mi mensaje a Putin es claro: manténgase fuera de las elecciones estadounidenses y, como presidente, me aseguraré de que lo haga". [143] Sanders reconoció que su campaña fue informada sobre los supuestos esfuerzos de Rusia aproximadamente un mes antes. [144] En una sesión informativa de febrero de 2020 ante el Comité de Inteligencia de la Cámara de Representantes, los funcionarios de inteligencia estadounidenses advirtieron al Congreso que Rusia estaba interfiriendo en la campaña de 2020 para apoyar la campaña de reelección de Trump; Trump se enojó porque el Congreso había sido informado de la amenaza, y al día siguiente de la sesión informativa castigó al director interino de inteligencia nacional, Joseph Maguire , por permitir que la sesión informativa siguiera adelante. [145] [146] China y algunas personas chinas vinculadas al gobierno han sido acusadas de interferir en las elecciones para apoyar la candidatura tanto de Biden como de Trump, [147] aunque si realmente lo está haciendo es algo que se discute entre la comunidad de inteligencia. [146] [148]
El 21 de octubre, se enviaron correos electrónicos amenazantes a los demócratas en al menos cuatro estados. Los correos electrónicos advertían: "Votarán por Trump el día de las elecciones o iremos a por ustedes". [149] El director de Inteligencia Nacional, John Ratcliffe, anunció esa noche que los correos electrónicos, utilizando una dirección de remitente falsa, habían sido enviados por Irán. Añadió que se sabe que tanto Irán como Rusia han obtenido datos del registro de votantes estadounidenses, posiblemente de información disponible públicamente, y "Estos datos pueden ser utilizados por actores extranjeros para intentar comunicar información falsa a los votantes registrados con la esperanza de que cause confusión, siembre el caos y socave su confianza en la democracia estadounidense". Un portavoz de Irán negó la acusación. [150] En su anuncio, Ratcliffe dijo que la intención de Irán había sido "intimidar a los votantes, incitar al malestar social y dañar al presidente Trump", lo que planteó dudas sobre cómo ordenar a los demócratas que votaran por Trump sería perjudicial para Trump. Más tarde se informó de que la referencia a Trump no había estado en los comentarios preparados de Ratcliffe tal como los firmaron los otros funcionarios en el escenario; Lo había añadido por su cuenta. [151] El 18 de noviembre de 2021, el Departamento de Justicia acusó a dos piratas informáticos iraníes de intentar intimidar a los votantes estadounidenses antes de las elecciones estadounidenses de 2020 enviando correos electrónicos amenazantes y difundiendo información falsa. [152]
A lo largo del período electoral, varios legisladores colombianos y el embajador de Colombia en los Estados Unidos emitieron declaraciones de apoyo a la campaña de Donald Trump, que ha sido vista como potencialmente dañina para las relaciones entre Colombia y los Estados Unidos . [153] [154] El 26 de octubre, el embajador de Estados Unidos en Colombia, Philip Goldberg , solicitó que los políticos colombianos se abstuvieran de involucrarse en las elecciones. [155]
El Departamento de Justicia está investigando si el Comité de Victoria de Trump aceptó una donación de 100.000 dólares del empresario malasio y fugitivo internacional Jho Low , acusado de ser el cerebro detrás del escándalo multimillonario 1Malaysia Development Berhad, que involucra a un fondo soberano de riqueza de Malasia, 1MDB . [156] [157]
El posible rechazo de Trump a los resultados electorales
Durante la campaña, Trump indicó en publicaciones de Twitter , entrevistas y discursos que podría negarse a reconocer el resultado de las elecciones si fuera derrotado; Trump sugirió falsamente que las elecciones estarían amañadas en su contra. [161] [162] [163] En julio de 2020, Trump se negó a responder si aceptaría los resultados, tal como lo hizo en las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 , y le dijo al presentador de Fox News Chris Wallace que "tengo que ver. No, no voy a decir simplemente que sí. No voy a decir que no". [164] [165] [166] [167] Trump afirmó repetidamente que "la única forma" en que podría perder sería si las elecciones estuvieran "amañadas" y se negó repetidamente a comprometerse con una transición pacífica del poder después de las elecciones. [168] [169] Trump también atacó la votación por correo durante toda la campaña, afirmando falsamente que la práctica contiene altas tasas de fraude; [170] [171] [172] En un momento, Trump dijo: "Veremos qué pasa ... Desháganse de las papeletas y tendrán una situación muy pacífica; no habrá una transferencia, francamente. Habrá una continuación". [173] Las declaraciones de Trump han sido descritas como una amenaza "para trastocar el orden constitucional". [174] En septiembre de 2020, el director del FBI, Christopher A. Wray , quien fue designado por Trump, testificó bajo juramento que el FBI "no ha visto, históricamente, ningún tipo de esfuerzo coordinado de fraude electoral a nivel nacional en una elección importante, ya sea por correo o de otra manera". [175]
Varios republicanos del Congreso insistieron en que estaban comprometidos con una transición de poder ordenada y pacífica, pero se negaron a criticar a Trump por sus comentarios. [176] El 24 de septiembre, el Senado aprobó por unanimidad una resolución que afirmaba el compromiso del Senado con una transferencia pacífica del poder. [177] Trump también declaró que esperaba que la Corte Suprema decidiera la elección y que quería una mayoría conservadora en caso de una disputa electoral, reiterando su compromiso de instalar rápidamente un noveno juez luego de la muerte de Ruth Bader Ginsburg . [178]
Sugerencia de aplazamiento de elecciones
En abril de 2020, Biden sugirió que Trump podría intentar retrasar las elecciones, diciendo que "va a intentar retrasar las elecciones de alguna manera, encontrar alguna justificación por la que no se pueden celebrar". [179] [180] El 30 de julio, Trump tuiteó que "con el voto por correo universal (no el voto en ausencia, que es bueno), 2020 será la elección más INEXACTA Y FRAUDULENTA de la historia" y preguntó si debería retrasarse hasta que la gente pueda emitir su voto en persona de manera segura. Los expertos [ ¿quiénes? ] indicaron que, para que las elecciones se retrasen legalmente, tal decisión debe ser tomada por el Congreso. [181] [182] Y la Constitución establece el final de los mandatos presidencial y vicepresidencial el 20 de enero, una fecha límite estricta que no puede ser alterada por el Congreso excepto mediante una enmienda constitucional. [183] [184]
Voto por correo
Gráfico de la encuesta de opinión de julio de 2020 sobre la probabilidad de votar por correo en las elecciones de noviembre, en comparación con 2016 [185]
El voto por correo en los Estados Unidos se ha vuelto cada vez más común: en 2016 y 2018, el 25% de los votantes enviaron su papeleta por correo. Para junio de 2020, se predijo que la pandemia de COVID-19 causaría un gran aumento en el voto por correo debido al posible peligro de congregarse en los lugares de votación. [186] Un análisis estado por estado de agosto de 2020 concluyó que el 76% de los estadounidenses eran elegibles para votar por correo en 2020, una cifra récord. El análisis predijo que se podrían emitir 80 millones de votos por correo en 2020, más del doble de la cifra de 2016. [187]
El Servicio Postal envió una carta a varios estados en julio de 2020, advirtiendo que el servicio no podría cumplir con los plazos del estado para solicitar y emitir votos en ausencia de último momento. [188] Además del alto volumen previsto de votos enviados por correo, la predicción se debió en parte a numerosas medidas adoptadas por Louis DeJoy , el recién instalado Director General de Correos de los Estados Unidos , incluida la prohibición de las horas extras y los viajes adicionales para entregar el correo, [189] lo que provocó retrasos en la entrega del correo, [190] y el desmantelamiento y la retirada de cientos de máquinas de clasificación de correo de alta velocidad de los centros postales. [191] El 18 de agosto, después de que la Cámara de Representantes fuera convocada de su receso de agosto para votar sobre un proyecto de ley que revertía los cambios, DeJoy anunció que revertiría todos los cambios hasta después de las elecciones de noviembre. Dijo que restablecería las horas extra, revertiría las reducciones del servicio y detendría la eliminación de las máquinas de clasificación de correo y los buzones de recogida. [192]
La Cámara de Representantes votó una subvención de emergencia de 25.000 millones de dólares para la oficina de correos con el fin de facilitar la avalancha prevista de papeletas de voto por correo. [193] Aunque Trump ha denunciado repetidamente el voto por correo, ha enviado papeletas por correo debido a que se encuentra en un estado diferente al que vota en el momento de la elección. [194] En agosto de 2020, Trump admitió que la oficina de correos necesitaría fondos adicionales para gestionar la votación por correo adicional, pero dijo que bloquearía cualquier financiación adicional para la oficina de correos para evitar cualquier aumento de la votación por correo. [195]
Al final, se estima que el 42 por ciento de los votos se emitieron por correo en 41 estados informantes, [196] aproximadamente 65,6 millones de votos de 154,6 millones emitidos por todos los métodos. [197]
La campaña de Trump presentó demandas para bloquear el uso de urnas oficiales en Pensilvania en lugares distintos a las oficinas electorales, y también buscó "impedir que los funcionarios electorales cuenten las papeletas de voto por correo si un votante olvida poner su papeleta en una funda de confidencialidad dentro del sobre de devolución de la papeleta". [198] Tanto la campaña de Trump como el Partido Republicano no lograron presentar ninguna prueba de fraude en la votación por correo después de que un juez federal les ordenara hacerlo. [198]
El día de las elecciones, un juez ordenó a los inspectores de correos que buscaran papeletas en "las instalaciones de correos en... estados clave en disputa". [199] La agencia se negó a cumplir la orden y casi el 7% de las papeletas en las instalaciones de USPS el día de las elecciones no se procesaron a tiempo. [200]
Cuestiones de la Comisión Federal Electoral
La Comisión Federal Electoral , que fue creada en 1974 para hacer cumplir las leyes de financiamiento de campañas en las elecciones federales, no ha funcionado desde julio de 2020 debido a vacantes en su membresía. En ausencia de quórum, la comisión no puede votar sobre quejas ni brindar orientación a través de opiniones consultivas. [201] Al 19 de mayo de 2020, había 350 asuntos pendientes en el expediente de cumplimiento de la agencia y 227 asuntos en espera de acción. [202] Al 1 de septiembre de 2020, Trump no había nominado a nadie para cubrir las vacantes de la FEC. [203]
Vacante en la Corte Suprema
El presidente Donald Trump con Amy Coney Barrett y su familia, justo antes de que se anunciara a Barrett como candidata, el 26 de septiembre de 2020
El 18 de septiembre de 2020, la jueza Ruth Bader Ginsburg falleció. El líder de la mayoría del Senado, Mitch McConnell, dijo inmediatamente que el precedente que había establecido con respecto a la nominación de Merrick Garland no funcionaba y que se votaría un reemplazo lo antes posible, lo que preparó el escenario para una batalla de confirmación y una intrusión inesperada en la campaña. [204] La muerte de la jueza Ginsburg resultó en grandes aumentos en el impulso tanto para los demócratas como para los republicanos. [205] [206] El presidente, [207] el vicepresidente [208] y varios miembros republicanos del Congreso dijeron que se necesitaba un tribunal supremo completo para decidir las próximas elecciones. [209] [210]
El 26 de septiembre, el día después de que el cuerpo de la jueza Ginsburg fuera velado en el Capitolio , Trump celebró una ceremonia en el Jardín de las Rosas de la Casa Blanca para anunciar y presentar a su candidata, Amy Coney Barrett . [211] Después de cuatro días de audiencias de confirmación, el Comité Judicial del Senado votó la nominación fuera del comité el 22 de octubre, [212] y el 26 de octubre, Barrett fue confirmada en una votación partidaria de 52 a 48, sin que ningún demócrata votara por su confirmación. [213] Esta fue la confirmación a la Corte Suprema más cercana a una elección presidencial, y la primera nominación a la Corte Suprema desde 1869 sin votos de apoyo del partido minoritario. [213] También fue uno de los plazos más rápidos desde la nominación hasta las confirmaciones en la historia de Estados Unidos. [214] [215]
Litigios preelectorales
En septiembre de 2020, se habían presentado cientos de casos legales relacionados con las elecciones. [216] Alrededor de 250 de ellos tenían que ver con la mecánica de la votación en relación con la pandemia de COVID-19. [216] La Corte Suprema se pronunció sobre varios de estos casos, [217] principalmente emitiendo suspensiones de emergencia en lugar de seguir el proceso normal debido a la urgencia. [218] En octubre de 2020, se especuló con que la elección podría decidirse a través de un caso de la Corte Suprema, como sucedió después de las elecciones de 2000. [ 219] [220]
Sitios de las elecciones generales presidenciales de 2020 () y vicepresidente () debates
El 11 de octubre de 2019, la Comisión de Debates Presidenciales (CPD) anunció que se celebrarían tres debates electorales generales en el otoño de 2020. [221]
Un intercambio que se destacó particularmente fue cuando Trump no denunció directamente al grupo supremacista blanco y neofascista Proud Boys , sino que respondió que deberían "dar un paso atrás y esperar". [229] [230] [231] Al día siguiente, Trump le dijo a los periodistas que el grupo debería "retirarse" al tiempo que afirmaba que no sabía qué era el grupo. [232] [233] El debate fue descrito como "caótico y casi incoherente" debido a las repetidas interrupciones de Trump, lo que provocó que el CPD considerara ajustes al formato de los debates restantes. [234]
El debate vicepresidencial se llevó a cabo el 7 de octubre de 2020 en la Universidad de Utah en Salt Lake City . [235] Se consideró que el debate fue moderado, sin un vencedor claro. [236] [237] Un incidente que fue particularmente comentado fue cuando una mosca se posó en la cabeza del vicepresidente Pence y permaneció allí sin que él lo supiera durante dos minutos. [238] [239]
El segundo debate se programó inicialmente para celebrarse en la Universidad de Michigan en Ann Arbor, Michigan , pero la universidad se retiró en junio de 2020, por preocupaciones con respecto a la pandemia de COVID-19 . [240] El debate planeado fue reprogramado para el 15 de octubre en el Centro Adrienne Arsht para las Artes Escénicas en Miami ; debido a que Trump contrajo COVID-19, el CPD anunció el 8 de octubre que el debate se llevaría a cabo de manera virtual, en el que los candidatos aparecerían desde ubicaciones separadas. Trump se negó a participar en un debate virtual y la comisión anunció posteriormente que el debate había sido cancelado. [241] [242]
El tercer debate programado tuvo lugar el 22 de octubre en la Universidad de Belmont en Nashville, Tennessee , y fue moderado por Kristen Welker . [243] [244] Los cambios en las reglas del debate, que incluyeron que los micrófonos de los candidatos se silenciaran mientras el otro hablaba, [245] dieron como resultado que se considerara generalmente más civilizado que el primer debate. [246] Se elogió el desempeño de Welker como moderadora, y se consideró que había hecho un buen trabajo al evitar que los candidatos se interrumpieran entre sí. [247] En general, se consideró que Biden había ganado el debate, aunque se consideró poco probable que alterara la carrera en un grado considerable. [248] [249] [250]
El siguiente gráfico muestra la posición de cada candidato en los agregadores de encuestas desde septiembre de 2019 hasta noviembre de 2020. El ex vicepresidente Joe Biden , el candidato demócrata, tenía una ventaja promedio en las encuestas de 7,9 puntos porcentuales sobre el presidente en ejercicio Donald Trump , el candidato republicano. Biden ganaría el voto popular nacional por 4,4 puntos porcentuales.
De cuatro vías
Los promedios calculados no son comparables con los de las encuestas de Biden vs. Trump. Como las encuestas con terceros partidos han sido muy limitadas, las encuestas incluidas en el promedio suelen ser diferentes.
Estados indecisos
El siguiente gráfico muestra la diferencia entre Joe Biden y Donald Trump en cada estado clave en los agregadores de encuestas desde marzo de 2020 hasta las elecciones, con los resultados electorales para comparación.
Predicciones
Respaldos
Estimación del costo total
OpenSecrets estimó el costo total de las elecciones de 2020 en casi 14 mil millones de dólares, lo que las convierte en las elecciones más caras de la historia y el doble de caras que el ciclo electoral presidencial anterior. [276]
Problemas de campaña
Pandemia de COVID-19
La pandemia de COVID-19 fue un tema importante de la campaña, y las respuestas de Trump fueron duramente criticadas. El presidente difundió mensajes contradictorios sobre el valor de usar mascarillas como protección, incluso criticó a Biden y a los periodistas por usarlas, pero también alentó su uso en ocasiones. [277] Durante la campaña, Trump celebró muchos eventos en todo el país, incluso en puntos críticos de COVID-19, donde los asistentes no usaban mascarillas ni respetaban el distanciamiento social; al mismo tiempo, se burló de quienes usaban mascarillas. [278] [279] [280]
Biden abogó por la expansión de la financiación federal, incluida la financiación en virtud de la Ley de Producción de Defensa para pruebas, equipos de protección personal e investigación. [281] Trump también invocó la Ley de Producción de Defensa para controlar la distribución de máscaras y respiradores, [282] pero su plan de respuesta dependía significativamente de que se lanzara una vacuna a fines de 2020. [281] En el segundo debate presidencial, Trump afirmó que Biden lo había llamado xenófobo por restringir la entrada de ciudadanos extranjeros que habían visitado China, pero Biden respondió que no se había referido a esta decisión. [283]
Economía
Tasas de pago del plan fiscal propuesto por grupo de ingresos como porcentaje de los ingresos, incluido el seguro médico obligatorio
Trump se atribuyó el mérito de la expansión económica constante de los primeros tres años de su presidencia, con el mercado de valores en su período de crecimiento más largo de la historia y el desempleo en su nivel más bajo en cincuenta años. Además, ha promocionado el repunte del tercer trimestre de 2020, en el que el PIB creció a una tasa anualizada del 33,1%, como prueba del éxito de sus políticas económicas. [284] Biden respondió a las afirmaciones de Trump repitiendo que la fuerte economía bajo la presidencia de Trump fue heredada de la administración Obama, y que Trump ha agravado el impacto económico de la pandemia, incluida la necesidad de que 42 millones de estadounidenses soliciten el desempleo. [285]
La Ley de Reducción de Impuestos y Empleos de 2017 , que redujo los impuestos sobre la renta para muchos estadounidenses y redujo la tasa impositiva corporativa del 35% al 21%, fue un componente importante de la política económica de Trump. Biden y los demócratas generalmente describen estos recortes como un beneficio injusto para la clase alta. Biden planea aumentar los impuestos a las corporaciones y a quienes ganan más de $400,000 por año, mientras mantiene los impuestos reducidos en los tramos de ingresos más bajos y aumenta los impuestos a las ganancias de capital a un tramo máximo del 39,6%. En respuesta, Trump dijo que los planes de Biden destruirían las cuentas de jubilación y el mercado de valores . [286]
Ambiente
Las opiniones de Trump y Biden sobre la política ambiental difieren significativamente. Trump afirmó que el cambio climático es un engaño, aunque también lo calificó como un tema serio. [287] Trump condenó el Acuerdo de París sobre la reducción de gases de efecto invernadero y comenzó el proceso de retirada . Biden planeaba volver a unirse a él y anunció un plan de 2 billones de dólares para combatir el cambio climático. Biden no había aceptado por completo el Green New Deal . Biden no planeaba prohibir el fracking , sino más bien prohibir el fracking en tierras federales. En un debate, Trump afirmó que Biden quería prohibirlo por completo. Otras políticas ambientales de Trump incluyeron la eliminación de los estándares de emisión de metano y una expansión de la minería. [288]
Cuidado de la salud
La atención médica fue un tema divisivo tanto en la campaña primaria demócrata como en la campaña general. Mientras Biden, así como otros candidatos, prometieron la protección de la Ley de Atención Médica Asequible , los progresistas dentro del Partido Demócrata abogaron por reemplazar la industria de seguros privados con Medicare para Todos . El plan de Biden implica agregar una opción pública al sistema de atención médica estadounidense, [289] y la restauración del mandato individual para comprar atención médica, que fue eliminado de la Ley de Atención Médica Asequible por el proyecto de ley de reducción de impuestos de 2017, [290] así como restaurar la financiación para Planned Parenthood . Trump anunció planes para derogar la Ley de Atención Médica Asequible, calificándola de "demasiado cara", pero no dijo qué la reemplazaría. [291] En el momento de la elección, la administración Trump y funcionarios republicanos de 18 estados tenían una demanda ante la Corte Suprema, pidiendo a la corte que derogara la Ley de Atención Médica Asequible. [292]
Como resultado del asesinato de George Floyd y otros incidentes de brutalidad policial contra afroamericanos, combinados con los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19, una serie de protestas y un período más amplio de disturbios raciales estallaron a mediados de 2020. A esto le siguió el movimiento Black Lives Matter , que protestó por la brutalidad policial contra los negros , y se convirtió en un punto central de la campaña presidencial de 2020. [293] Las protestas fueron en su mayoría pacíficas; menos del 4% involucraron daños a la propiedad o violencia (la mayoría de esta última dirigida a los propios manifestantes de BLM). [294] Según una estimación de septiembre de 2020, los incendios provocados, el vandalismo y los saqueos causaron alrededor de $1 a 2 mil millones en daños asegurados entre el 26 de mayo y el 8 de junio, lo que convierte a esta fase inicial de las protestas de George Floyd en el evento de desorden civil con el mayor daño registrado en la historia de los Estados Unidos. [295] [296]
En respuesta, Trump y los republicanos sugirieron enviar al ejército para contrarrestar las protestas, lo que fue criticado, especialmente por los demócratas, como de mano dura y potencialmente ilegal. [297] Trump se refirió a los manifestantes de Black Lives Matter que se enfrentaron a los comensales en un restaurante como "matones", [298] y llamó a una pintura callejera del eslogan un "símbolo de odio". [299] Particularmente controvertida fue una sesión de fotos que Trump tomó frente a la Iglesia de San Juan en Washington, DC , antes de la cual la policía militar había desalojado por la fuerza a los manifestantes pacíficos del área. [290] Biden condenó a Trump por sus acciones contra los manifestantes; describió las palabras de George Floyd " No puedo respirar " como una "llamada de atención para nuestra nación". También prometió que crearía una comisión de supervisión policial en sus primeros 100 días como presidente y establecería un estándar de uso uniforme de la fuerza, así como otras medidas de reforma policial. [300]
Más de 158 millones de votos fueron emitidos en la elección. [301] Más de 100 millones de ellos fueron emitidos antes del día de la elección mediante votación anticipada o por correo , debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en curso . [302] La elección vio la participación electoral más alta como porcentaje de votantes elegibles desde 1900 , [303] con cada una de las dos candidaturas principales recibiendo más de 74 millones de votos, superando el récord de Barack Obama de 69,5 millones de votos de 2008. [304] La candidatura Biden-Harris recibió más de 81 millones de votos, la mayor cantidad de votos en una elección presidencial de EE. UU . [10] [11] También fue la novena elección presidencial consecutiva en la que el candidato victorioso de un partido mayoritario no recibió una mayoría de voto popular por un margen de dos dígitos sobre el o los candidatos perdedores de un partido mayoritario, continuando la secuencia más larga de tales elecciones presidenciales en la historia de los EE. UU., que comenzó en 1988 y en 2016 eclipsó la secuencia más larga anterior, la de 1876 a 1900. [305] [nota 1] [306] En 2020, el 58 por ciento de los votantes estadounidenses vivían en condados con victorias aplastantes , [307] una disminución respecto del 61 por ciento en 2016. [308]
Trump se convirtió en el undécimo presidente en ejercicio en la historia del país, y el primero desde 1992 , en perder un intento por un segundo mandato. El 51,3% del voto popular de Biden fue el más alto para un rival de un presidente en ejercicio desde 1932. [ 309] [310] [311] [m] Biden es el sexto vicepresidente en convertirse en presidente sin suceder en el cargo tras la muerte o renuncia de un presidente anterior. [312] Además, la derrota de Trump marcó la tercera vez que un presidente electo perdió el voto popular dos veces, siendo los primeros John Quincy Adams en la década de 1820 y Benjamin Harrison en las décadas de 1880 y 1890. [313] Esta fue la primera vez desde 1980, y la primera para los republicanos desde 1892 , que un partido fue derrotado después de un solo mandato de cuatro años. Esta fue la segunda elección en la historia de Estados Unidos en la que el presidente en ejercicio perdió la reelección a pesar de haber obtenido una mayor proporción del voto popular que en la elección anterior, después de 1828. También es la tercera elección en la que los dos candidatos que recibieron votos electorales ganaron el mismo número de estados. Esto también sucedió en 1880 y 1848 .
Biden ganó 25 estados, el Distrito de Columbia y un distrito congresional en Nebraska, totalizando 306 votos electorales. Trump ganó 25 estados y un distrito congresional en Maine, totalizando 232 votos electorales. Este resultado fue exactamente el inverso de la victoria de Trump, 306 a 232, en 2016 (excluyendo a los electores infieles ). [314] Biden se convirtió en el primer demócrata en ganar la elección presidencial en Georgia desde 1992 y en Arizona desde 1996 , [19] y el primer candidato en ganar a nivel nacional sin Florida desde 1992 y Ohio desde 1960 , lo que pone en duda el estatus continuo de Ohio como un estado referente . [315] Biden ganó cinco estados ganados por Trump en 2016: Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Pensilvania y Wisconsin . También se convirtió en el primer demócrata desde 2008 en ganar el segundo distrito del Congreso de Nebraska , ganando un voto electoral del estado. Trump no ganó ningún estado ganado por Clinton en 2016. Las tres ganancias de Biden en el Cinturón del Óxido (Míchigan, Pensilvania y Wisconsin) fueron ampliamente caracterizadas como una reconstrucción del muro azul , un término ampliamente utilizado en la prensa para los estados ganados consistentemente por los demócratas de 1992 a 2012, roto por Trump en 2016 cuando ganó por poco esos tres estados del Cinturón del Óxido. [316] [317] [318] [319] Sin embargo, en medio de la derrota nacional y electoral de Trump, su obtención de victorias decisivas en Ohio, Iowa y Florida por segunda vez, después de haber respaldado a Obama dos veces, ha llevado a muchos comentaristas a concluir que han pasado de estados indecisos perennes a estados rojos confiables . [320] [321]
A la luz de los intentos de impugnar los resultados electorales, una pregunta importante es cuántos votos habrían tenido que cambiar en determinados estados para producir un resultado diferente en el Colegio Electoral. Si las tres victorias estatales más ajustadas de Biden (Wisconsin, Georgia y Arizona, todas las cuales ganó por menos de un punto porcentual) hubieran sido para Trump, habría habido un empate de 269 electores para cada candidato, [322] [323] lo que habría provocado que la Cámara de Representantes decidiera una elección contingente , donde Trump tenía la ventaja. (Aunque los demócratas controlaban la Cámara, las elecciones contingentes se determinan por delegaciones estatales en las que cada estado recibe solo un voto, y dado que una ligera mayoría de estados en 2020 contenía más representantes republicanos que demócratas, los republicanos habrían tenido más votos en una elección de ese tipo). Este escenario habría requerido un cambio en el voto popular del 0,63% o menos en cada uno de estos tres estados, un total de aproximadamente 43.000 votos, el 0,03% de los votos emitidos a nivel nacional. [324] Esta situación fue paralela a la de 2016, cuando un cambio de 0,77% o menos en cada uno de los tres estados más disputados (Wisconsin, Michigan y Pensilvania), o alrededor de 77.000 votos, habría dado como resultado que la ganadora del voto popular, Hillary Clinton, también ganara en el Colegio Electoral.
Esta fue la primera vez desde 1948 que los demócratas ganaron el voto popular en cuatro elecciones consecutivas. Biden fue el segundo ex vicepresidente (después de Richard Nixon en 1968 ) en ganar la presidencia, así como el primer vicepresidente desde George H. W. Bush en 1988 en ser elegido presidente. [325]
Casi todos los condados que antes se consideraban indicadores fiables de un eventual éxito en las elecciones presidenciales votaron por Trump en lugar de Biden, lo que significa que no continuaron su racha como condados de referencia . Esto se atribuyó a la creciente polarización política en todo el país y a la división entre zonas urbanas y rurales. [326]
Aunque Trump seguía dominando la América rural en su conjunto, hubo zonas rurales en las que perdió. Biden ganó el 50,5% de los condados rurales que tenían mayoritariamente votantes no blancos, particularmente en el Sur y el Oeste. [327] Los condados rurales del Sur en los que ganó Biden tenían mayores dificultades económicas que los que ganó Trump; en el Noreste, sucedió lo contrario. [327] En el Oeste, Biden obtuvo resultados especialmente buenos en los condados rurales que tenían una alta proporción de trabajadores empleados en el ocio y la hostelería. [327] Asimismo, dichos condados tenían grandes distritos electorales de inmigrantes de otros estados. [327] Cada estado en el que ganó Biden obtuvo más votos que aquellos por los que Hillary Clinton ganó el estado. El margen de votos combinado de estos estados fue igual a la ganancia de Biden sobre Hillary Clinton. [328] Biden se convirtió en el presidente de mayor edad jamás elegido, superando el récord de Ronald Reagan en 1984, y el no titular de mayor edad de la historia, superando a Trump en 2016. De los 3153 condados, distritos y ciudades independientes que presentaron sus resultados, Trump ganó la mayor cantidad de votos populares en 2595 (82,30 %), mientras que Biden obtuvo 558 (17,70 %).
Convocatorias electorales
Cartograma hexagonal del número de votos del colegio electoral. Los estados con resultados opuestos a los de 2016 están sombreados .
Las principales organizaciones de noticias proyectan un estado para un candidato cuando existe una alta confianza matemática de que es poco probable que los votos pendientes impidan que el ganador proyectado gane en última instancia el estado. Las proyecciones electorales son realizadas por equipos de toma de decisiones compuestos por politólogos y científicos de datos. [18]
La gente celebra en las calles cercanas a la Casa Blanca luego de que las principales cadenas proyectaran a Biden como el ganador de las elecciones del 7 de noviembre.El senador Chuck Schumer se dirige a una multitud que celebra en Times Square , en la ciudad de Nueva York , poco después de que se declarara ganador a Biden.
En la madrugada del 4 de noviembre, The Associated Press declaró a Donald Trump como ganador de Florida a las 12:35 a.m. EST, lo que le dio 164 votos electorales. A la 1:06 a.m. EST, declaró a Trump como ganador de Texas, lo que le dio 202 votos electorales, en comparación con los 224 de Joe Biden. Arizona y Maine fueron declarados ganadores de Biden a las 2:51 a.m. y 3:06 a.m. EST, respectivamente. A la 1:24 p.m. EST de esa tarde, The Associated Press declaró a Trump como ganador del segundo distrito del Congreso de Maine, lo que le dio 203 votos electorales. Luego, Biden ganó Wisconsin y Michigan, a las 2:16 p.m. y 3:58 p.m. EST, respectivamente, lo que lo llevó a 264 votos electorales, a solo 6 de la presidencia. En la mañana del 7 de noviembre, aproximadamente a las 11:25 a. m. EST, aproximadamente tres días y medio después del cierre de las urnas, ABC News , NBC News , CBS News , Associated Press , CNN y Fox News anunciaron la elección y los 20 votos electorales de Pensilvania para Biden, basándose en proyecciones de votos en Pensilvania que lo mostraban liderando fuera del umbral de recuento (0,5% en ese estado), lo que lo colocaba con 284 votos electorales. [329] [330] [331 ] [332] [333] [334] [335] Esa noche, Biden y Harris dieron discursos de victoria en Wilmington, Delaware. [336]
Observación electoral por parte de la OSCE
Por invitación del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos, la Oficina de Instituciones Democráticas y Derechos Humanos (OIDDH ) de la Organización para la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa (OSCE ), que ha estado observando las elecciones estadounidenses desde 2002 (como lo hace para las elecciones importantes en todos los demás países miembros de la OSCE), envió 102 observadores de 39 países. [337] [338] [339] El grupo de trabajo estaba formado por observadores de largo plazo de la oficina de la OIDDH (dirigido por la ex diplomática polaca Urszula Gacek ) desplegados en 28 estados a partir de septiembre y que cubrían 15 estados el día de las elecciones, y un grupo de legisladores europeos que actuaban como observadores de corto plazo (dirigidos por el parlamentario alemán Michael Georg Link ), informando desde Maryland, Virginia, California, Nevada, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin y DC [337] [339] Debido a la pandemia de COVID-19, se redujo a una "misión de observación electoral limitada" de los 100 observadores de largo plazo y los 400 observadores de corto plazo originalmente planificados. [337]
An interim report published by the OSCE shortly before the election noted that many ODIHR interlocutors "expressed grave concerns about the risk of legitimacy of the elections being questioned due to the incumbent President's repeated allegations of a fraudulent election process, and postal vote in particular."[337][340] On the day after the election, the task force published preliminary findings,[338] with part of the summary stating:
The 3 November general elections were competitive and well managed despite legal uncertainties and logistical challenges. In a highly polarized political environment, harsh campaign rhetoric fuelled tensions. Measures intended to secure the elections during the pandemic triggered protracted litigation driven by partisan interests. The uncertainty caused by late legal challenges and evidence-deficient claims about election fraud created confusion and concern among election officials and voters. Voter registration and identification rules in some states are unduly restrictive for certain groups of citizens. The media, although sharply polarized, provided comprehensive coverage of the campaign and made efforts to provide accurate information on the organization of elections.[341]
Link said that "on the election day itself, we couldn't see any violations" at the polling places visited by the observers.[338] The task force also found "nothing untoward" while observing the handling of mail-in ballots at post offices, with Gacek being quoted as saying: "We feel that allegations of systemic wrongdoing in these elections have no solid ground. The system has held up well."[339] The OSCE's election monitoring branch published a more comprehensive report in early 2021.[339][342]
Electoral results
Candidates are listed individually below if they received more than 0.1% of the popular vote. Popular vote totals are from the Federal Election Commission report.[1]
Results by state
Two states, Maine and Nebraska, allow their electoral votes to be split between candidates by congressional districts. The winner of each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.[348][349]
States and EV districts that flipped from Republican to Democratic
The Brookings Institution released a report entitled "Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden's win" on November 12, 2020. In it, author William H. Frey attributes Obama's 2008 win to young people, people of color, and the college-educated. Frey contends Trump won in 2016 thanks to older White without college degrees.[354] Frey says the same coalitions largely held in 2008 and 2016, although in key battleground states Biden increased his vote among some of the 2016 Trump groups, particularly among White and older Americans.[354] Trump won the white vote in 2016 by 20% but in 2020 by only 16%. The Democratic Party won black voters by 75%, the lowest margin since 1980. Democrats won the Latino vote by 32%, which is the smallest margin since 2004, and they won the Asian American vote by 27%, the lowest figure since 2008.[354] Biden reduced the Republican margin of white men without college educations from 48% to 42%, and the Democrats made a slight improvement of 2% among white, college-educated women. People age 18 to 29 registered a rise in Democratic support between 2016 and 2020, with the Democratic margin of victory among that demographic increasing from 19% to 24%.[354]
Post-election analysis using verified voter data found the Associated Press's Votecast was more accurate than the exit polls.[355][356]
Voting patterns by ethnicity
Hispanic and Latino voters
Biden won 65% of the Latino vote according to Edison Research, and 63% according to the Associated Press. Voto Latino reported that the Latino vote was crucial to the Biden victory in Arizona. 40% of Latino voters who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2016, and 73% of those Latino voters voted for Biden (438,000 voters).[357]Florida and Texas, which have large Latino populations, were carried by Trump. In Florida, Trump won a majority of Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida.[358] The Latino vote was still crucial to enable Biden to carry states such as Nevada.[359] Latino voters were targeted by a major Spanish-language disinformation campaign in the final weeks of the election, with various falsehoods and conspiracy theories being pushed out by WhatsApp and viral social media posts.[360][361][362]
Demographic patterns emerged having to do with country of origin and candidate preference. Pre- and post-election surveys showed Biden winning Latinos of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Dominican,[363] and Spanish heritage,[364] while Trump carried Latinos of Cuban heritage. Data from Florida showed Biden holding a narrow edge among South Americans.[365]
Black voters
Biden won 87% of the Black vote, while Trump won 12%.[366] Biden's advantage among Black voters was crucial in the large cities of Pennsylvania and Michigan; the increase in the Democratic vote in Milwaukee County of about 28,000 votes was more than the 20,000-vote lead Biden had in the state of Wisconsin. Almost half Biden's gains in Georgia came from the four largest counties – Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb – all in the Atlanta metro area with large Black populations.[367] Trump improved his overall share of the Black vote from 2016 by 4% and doubled the Black vote that Mitt Romney received in 2012.[368][369][366]
Asian American and Pacific Island voters
Polls showed that 68% of Asian American and Pacific Island (AAPI) voters supported Biden/Harris, while 28% supported Trump/Pence. Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political science professor at the University of California Riverside and founder of AAPI Data, said Asian Americans supported Biden over Trump by about a 2:1 margin. Korean Americans, Japanese Americans, Indian Americans, and Chinese Americans favored Biden by higher margins overall compared to Vietnamese Americans and Filipino Americans.[370] Many voters were turned off by Trump's language some of which was widely considered racist such as ("China virus" and "kung flu") but, according to Vox reporter Terry Nguyen, many Vietnamese voters (and especially elderly, South Vietnamese migrants who populated coastal centers in the 1970s) appreciated his strong anti-China stance.[371]
Indian American voters
Data from FiveThirtyEight indicated 65% of Indian American voters backed Joe Biden, and 28% supported Donald Trump.[370] Some Indian Americans self-identified with Kamala Harris, but others approved of Donald Trump's support of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[372] In a speech given to 50,000 Indian-Americans during his 2019 visit to the US, Modi praised Trump with remarks that were interpreted as an indirect endorsement of his candidacy.[373] Indian right-wing organizations like the Hindu Sena had performed special havans and pujas for Trump's electoral victory.[374]
American Indian and Alaska Native voters
Pre-election voter surveys by Indian Country Today found 68% of American Indian and Alaska Native voters supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden.[375] In particular, the Navajo Reservation, which spans a large quadrant of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, delivered up to 97% of their votes per precinct to Biden,[376] while overall support for Biden was between 60 and 90% on the Reservation.[377] Biden also posted large turnout among Havasupai, Hopi, and Tohono O'odham peoples,[378] delivering a large win in New Mexico and flipping Arizona.
Trump's strongest performance among Native tribes was with the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina, where he won a strong majority in Robeson County and flipped Scotland County from Democratic to Republican.[380] Trump had campaigned in Lumberton, in Robeson County, and had promised the Lumbeesfederal recognition.[380]
Polling accuracy
Although polls generally predicted the Biden victory, the national polls overestimated him by three to four points, and some state polling was even further from the actual result and greater than 2016's error (one or two points).[381] The numbers represented the highest level of error since the 1980 presidential election.[382] This polling overestimation also applied in several Senate races, where the Democrats underperformed by about five points relative to the polls,[383] as well as the House elections, where Republicans gained seats instead of losing as polls predicted. Most pollsters underestimated support for Trump in several key battleground states, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin. The discrepancy between poll predictions and the actual result persisted from the 2016 election despite pollsters' attempts to fix problems with polling in 2016, in which they underestimated the Republican vote in several states. The imprecise polls led to changes in campaigning and fundraising decisions for both Democrats and Republicans.[381]
According to The New York Times, polling misses have been attributed to, among other issues, reduced average response to polling; the relative difficulty to poll certain types of voters; and pandemic-related problems, such as a theory which suggests Democrats were less willing to vote in person on Election Day than Republicans for fear of contracting COVID-19.[381] According to CNN, research presented to the American Association for Public Opinion Research indicated one of the primary problems was an inability by pollsters to include a certain segment of Trump supporters, either due to inaccessibility or lack of participation.[382]New Statesman data journalist Ben Walker pointed to Hispanics as a historically difficult group to poll accurately, leading to pollsters underestimating the level of Trump support within the demographic group.[384] Election analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight argued that the polling error in 2020 was normal by historical standards.[385]
Siena College Research Institute reported that a significant source of polling error was the discounting of partial responses by "mistrustful Trump supporters" who "yelled" at their callers; when someone would "say 'I’m voting for Trump—fuck you,' and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey," it would not be counted as a response. Such "partials" made up "nearly half of Siena’s error rate."[386]
Election night, November 3, ended without a clear winner, as many state results were too close to call and millions of votes remained uncounted, including in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.[387] Results were delayed in these states due to local rules on counting mail-in ballots.[388] Mail-in ballots became particularly prevalent in the 2020 election due to the widespread outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over roughly 67 million mail-in ballots were submitted, over doubling the previous election's 33.5 million.[389] In a victory declared after midnight, Trump won the swing state of Florida by over three percentage points, an increase from his 1.2 percentage point margin in 2016, having seen significant gains in support among the Latino community in Miami-Dade County.[390]
Shortly after 12:30a.m.EST, Biden made a short speech in which he urged his supporters to be patient while the votes are counted, and said he believed he was "on track to win this election".[391][392] Shortly before 2:30a.m.EST, Trump made a speech to a roomful of supporters, falsely asserting that he had won the election and calling for a stop to all vote counting, saying that continued counting was "a fraud on the American people" and "we will be going to the U.S. Supreme Court."[393][394] The Biden campaign denounced these attempts, claiming the Trump campaign was engaging in a "naked effort to take away the democratic rights of American citizens".[395]
Late counting
In Pennsylvania, where the counting of mail-in ballots began on election night, Trump declared victory on November4 with a lead of 675,000 votes, despite more than a million ballots remaining uncounted. Trump also declared victory in North Carolina and Georgia, despite many ballots being uncounted.[396] At 11:20p.m.EST on election night, Fox News projected Biden would win Arizona, with the Associated Press making the same call at 2:50a.m.EST on November 4;[397][398] several other media outlets concluded the state was too close to call.[399][400] By the evening of November 4, the Associated Press reported that Biden had secured 264 electoral votes by winning Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada remaining uncalled.[401] Biden had a 1% lead in Nevada[402] and maintained a 2.3% lead in Arizona by November 5,[403] needing only to win Nevada and Arizona or to win Pennsylvania to obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes.[401]
Some Trump supporters expressed concerns of possible fraud after seeing the president leading in some states on Election Night, only to see Biden take the lead in subsequent days. Election experts[404] attributed this to several factors, including a "red mirage" of early results being counted in relatively thinly populated rural areas that favored Trump, which are quicker to count, followed later by results from more heavily populated urban areas that favored Biden, which take longer to count. In some states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican-controlled legislatures prohibited mail-in ballots from being counted before Election Day, and once those ballots were counted they generally favored Biden, at least in part because Trump had for months raised concerns about mail-in ballots, encouraging his supporters instead to vote in person. By contrast, in states such as Florida, which allowed counting of mail-in ballots for weeks prior to Election Day, an early blue shift giving the appearance of a Biden lead was later overcome by in-person voting that favored Trump, resulting in the state being called for the president on Election Night.[405][406][407]
On November 5, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by the Trump campaign to stop vote-counting in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign had alleged that its observers were not given access to observe the vote, but its lawyers admitted during the hearing that its observers were already present in the vote-counting room.[408] Also that day, a state judge dismissed another lawsuit by the Trump campaign which alleged that in Georgia, late-arriving ballots were counted. The judge ruled no evidence had been produced that the ballots were late.[409] Meanwhile, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[410] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[411]
On November 6, Biden assumed leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia as the states continued to count ballots, and absentee votes in those states heavily favored Biden.[412] Due to the slim margin between Biden and Trump in the state, Georgia Secretary of StateBrad Raffensperger announced on November6 that a recount would be held in Georgia. At that point, Georgia had not seen "any widespread irregularities" in this election, according to the voting system manager of the state, Gabriel Sterling.[413]
Also, on November 6, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito issued an order requiring officials in Pennsylvania to segregate late-arriving ballots, amid a dispute as to whether the state's Supreme Court validly ordered a 3-day extension of the deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive.[414] Several Republican attorneys general filed amicus briefs before the U.S. Supreme Court in subsequent days agreeing with the Pennsylvania Republican Party's view that only the state legislature could change the voting deadline.[415]
By November 7, several prominent Republicans had publicly denounced Trump's claims of electoral fraud, saying they were unsubstantiated, baseless or without evidence, damaging to the election process, undermining democracy and dangerous to political stability while others supported his demand of transparency.[416] According to CNN, people close to Donald Trump, such as his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner and his wife Melania Trump, urged him to accept his defeat. While Donald Trump privately acknowledged the outcome of the presidential election, he nonetheless encouraged his legal team to continue pursuing legal challenges.[417] Trump expected to win the election in Arizona, but when Fox News declared Biden the victor of the state, Trump became furious and claimed the result was due to fraud.[418]Trump and his allies suffered approximately 50 legal losses in four weeks after starting their litigation.[419] In view of these legal defeats, Trump began to employ "a public pressure campaign on state and local Republican officials to manipulate the electoral system on his behalf".[418][420][421][422]
Spontaneous celebration of Trump's loss at Frederick Douglass Circle in New York City on November 7, 2020
Election protests
Protests against Trump's challenges to the election results occurred in Minneapolis, Portland, New York, and other cities. Police in Minneapolis arrested more than 600 demonstrators for blocking traffic on an interstate highway. In Portland, the National Guard was called out after some protesters smashed windows and threw objects at police.[423] At the same time, groups of Trump supporters gathered outside of election centers in Phoenix, Detroit, and Philadelphia, shouting objections to counts that showed Biden leading or gaining ground.[423] In Arizona, where Biden's lead was shrinking as more results were reported, the pro-Trump protesters mostly demanded that all remaining votes be counted, while in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Trump's lead shrank and disappeared altogether as more results were reported, they called for the count to be stopped.[424]
False claims of fraud
Screenshot of a tweet from Trump's Twitter account where he repeatedly and falsely claimed he had won.[425][426]To sow election doubt, Trump escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections—the statements described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.[427]
Trump and a variety of his surrogates and supporters made a series of observably false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked.[428][429] On November 9and 10, The New York Times called the offices of top election officials in every state; all 45 of those who responded said there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the coronavirus pandemic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots.[27] On November 12, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting "[t]here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."[29] Five days later, Trump fired the director of CISA, whom he had appointed in 2018.[430]
As ballots were still being counted two days after Election Day, Trump falsely asserted that there was "tremendous corruption and fraud going on", adding: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us."[431] Trump has repeatedly claimed as suspicious that mail-in ballots showed significantly more support for Biden.[432] This blue shift phenomenon is believed to occur because more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote by mail, and mail ballots are counted after Election Day in many states. Leading up to the 2020 election, the effect was predicted to be even greater than usual, as Trump's attacks on mail-in voting may have deterred Republicans from casting mail ballots.[433]
In early January 2021, Trump falsely proclaimed that he had by rights won all 50 states in the presidential election and a 535 to 3 electoral college victory. On January 2, during his phone call to Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia Secretary of State, Trump said, "As you know, every single state. We won every state; we won every statehouse in the country... But we won every single statehouse."[434] Two days later, on January 4, Trump appeared at a campaign rally in Dalton, Georgia, supporting Republican Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. During his speech at the rally, Trump again asserted that he won "every single state", and "We win every state, and they're going to have this guy [Biden] be President?"[435]
Many claims of purported voter fraud were discovered to be false or misleading. In Fulton County, Georgia, the number of votes affected was 342, with no breakdown of which candidates they were for.[436] A viral video of a Pennsylvania poll worker filling out a ballot was found to be a case of a damaged ballot being replicated to ensure proper counting, while a video claiming to show a man taking ballots illegally to a Detroit counting center was found to show a photographer transporting his equipment.[437][438] Another video of a poll watcher being turned away in Philadelphia was found to be real, but the poll watcher had subsequently been allowed inside after a misunderstanding had been resolved.[439] A viral tweet claimed 14,000 votes in Wayne County, Michigan, were cast by dead people, but the list of names included was found to be incorrect.[440] The Trump campaign and Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson also claimed a man named James Blalock had voted in Georgia despite having died in 2006, but in fact his 94-year-old widow had registered and voted as Mrs. James Blalock.[441] In Erie, Pennsylvania, a postal worker who claimed the postmaster had instructed postal workers to backdate ballots mailed after Election Day later admitted he had fabricated the claim. Prior to this recantation, Republican senator Lindsey Graham cited the claim in a letter to the Justice Department calling for an investigation, and a GoFundMe page created for the postal worker "patriot" raised $136,000.[442]
Days after Biden had been declared the winner, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany asserted without evidence that the Democratic Party was welcoming fraud and illegal voting.[443] Republican former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich stated on Fox News, "I think that it is a corrupt, stolen election."[444] Appearing at a press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business as Biden was being declared the winner, Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani asserted without evidence that hundreds of thousands of ballots were questionable.[445] Responding to Giuliani, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro said: "Many of the claims against the commonwealth have already been dismissed, and repeating these false attacks is reckless. No active lawsuit even alleges, and no evidence presented so far has shown, widespread problems."[27]
One week after the election, Republican Philadelphia city commissionerAl Schmidt said he had not seen any evidence of widespread fraud, stating, "I have seen the most fantastical things on social media, making completely ridiculous allegations that have no basis in fact at all and see them spread." He added that his office had examined a list of dead people who purportedly voted in Philadelphia but "not a single one of them voted in Philadelphia after they died." Trump derided Schmidt, tweeting, "He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!"[446]
Attorneys who brought accusations of voting fraud or irregularities before judges could not produce valid evidence to support the allegations. In one instance, a Trump attorney sought to have ballot counting halted in Detroit on the basis of a Republican poll watcher's claim that an unidentified person had said ballots were being backdated; Michigan Court of Appeals judge Cynthia Stephens dismissed the argument as "inadmissible hearsay within hearsay".[447][448] Some senior attorneys at law firms working for Trump, notably Jones Day, expressed concerns that they were undermining the integrity of American elections by advancing arguments without evidence.[449]
Trump and his lawyers Giuliani and Sidney Powell repeatedly made the false claim that the Toronto, Ontario-based firm Dominion Voting Systems, which had supplied voting machines for 27 states, was a "communist" organization controlled by billionaire George Soros, former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (who died in 2013), or the Chinese Communist Party, and that the machines had "stolen" hundreds of thousands of votes from Trump. Defamatory rumors about the company circulated on social media, amplified by more than a dozen tweets or retweets by Trump. The disinformation campaign prompted threats and harassment against Dominion employees.[450]
A December 2020 poll showed 77% of Republicans believed widespread fraud occurred during the election, along with 35% of independent voters.[451] Overall, 60% of Americans believed Biden's win was legitimate, 34% did not, and 6% were unsure. Another poll taken in late December showed a similar result, with 62% of Americans polled believing Biden was the legitimate winner of the election, while 37% did not.[452] This split in popular opinion remained largely stable, with a January 10, 2021, poll commissioned by ABC News showing 68% of Americans believed Biden's win was legitimate and 32% did not.[453] These numbers remained largely stagnant, with a June 2021 poll from Monmouth showing 61% believed Biden won fair and square, 32% believed he won due to fraud, and 7% were unsure.[454] More than a year later, public opinion on the matter still remained stagnant, with a poll commissioned by ABC News finding that 65% of Americans believed Biden's win was legitimate, 33% believed it was not legitimate, and 2% were unsure. The same poll also found that 72% of Americans thought the people involved in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, were attacking democracy, while 25% thought they were protecting democracy, and 3% were unsure.[455] A March 2022 poll commissioned by the conservative Rasmussen Reports found that 52% of voters think that it is likely that cheating "affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election." while 40% of voters believe that it is unlikely. 33% say that cheating was very likely, 19% say it was somewhat likely, 13% say it was somewhat unlikely, and 27% say it was very unlikely.[456]
After the election, the Trump campaign filed lawsuits in multiple states, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.[458] Lawyers and other observers noted the suits were unlikely to affect the outcome. Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt said, "There's literally nothing that I've seen yet with the meaningful potential to affect the final result."[459]Some law firms moved to drop their representation in lawsuits challenging results of the election.[460]
Trump unsuccessfully sought to overturn Biden's win in Georgia through litigation; suits by the Trump campaign and allies were rejected by both the Georgia Supreme Court[461] and by federal courts.[462][463] Trump also sought to overturn Biden's win by pressuring Kemp to call a special session of the Georgia General Assembly so state legislators could override the Georgia election results and appoint a pro-Trump slate of electors, an entreaty rebuffed by Kemp.[464]
On December 20, Giuliani filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court, asking them to overturn the results of the Pennsylvania election and direct the state legislature to appoint electors. The Supreme Court was regarded as very unlikely to grant this petition, and in any case Biden would still have a majority of Electoral College votes without Pennsylvania.[465] The Court set the deadline for reply briefs from the respondents for January 22, 2021, two days after President Elect Biden's inauguration.[466]
Texas v. Pennsylvania
On December 9, Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas, filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Court, asking the court to overturn the results in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Attorneys general of seventeen other states also signed onto the lawsuit.[467][468][469] In the House of Representatives, 126 Republicans—more than two-thirds of the Republican caucus—signed an amicus brief in support of the lawsuit.[470] The suit was rejected by the Supreme Court on December 11, due to a lack of standing.[471][472]
Trump's refusal to concede
CNN fact checker Daniel Dale reported that through June 9, 2021, Trump had issued 132 written statements since leaving office, of which "a third have included lies about the election"—more than any other subject.[473]
Early in the morning on November 4, with vote counts still going on in many states, Trump claimed he had won: "This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election, frankly we did win this election."[474] For weeks after the networks had called the election for Biden, Trump refused to acknowledge that Biden had won. Unlike every losing major party presidential candidate before him, Trump refused to formally concede, breaking with the tradition of formal concession started in 1896, when William Jennings Bryan sent a congratulatory telegram to President-elect William McKinley.[475] Biden described Trump's refusal as "an embarrassment".[476]
In the wake of the election, Trump's White House ordered government agencies not to cooperate with the Biden transition team in any way,[477] and the General Services Administration (GSA) refused to formally acknowledge Biden's victory,[478]
Trump finally acknowledged Biden's victory in a tweet on November 15, although he refused to concede and blamed his loss on fraud, stating: "He won because the Election was Rigged." Trump then tweeted: "I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go."[479][480]
In a June 2021 interview with Sean Hannity, Trump stated that "we didn't win" and said that he wished President Biden success in international diplomacy, which Forbes declared as Trump "[coming] as close as he's ever been to conceding his 2020 election loss."[481]
GSA delays certifying Biden as president-elect
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration (GSA), Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA ascertainment of the winner, the official transition process was delayed.[482] On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the transition. Trump said he had instructed his administration to "do what needs to be done" but did not concede, and indicated he would continue his fight to overturn the election results.[483]
Attempts to delay or deny election results
Texas v. Pennsylvania motion (left), which called for the Supreme Court to nullify the election, and amicus curiae brief from 17 states (right)
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level.[484] On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was "rigged" and fraudulent, and he called for either state legislatures or courts to overturn the election and allow him to stay in office.[485] He continued to pressure elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn his loss. Some commentators have characterized Trump's actions as an attempted coup d'état or self-coup.[25]
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously said he would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden's win, saying, "Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden."[486]
A December 18 meeting in the White House discussed Michael Flynn's suggestion to overturn the election by invoking martial law and rerunning the election in several swing states under military supervision.[487][488][489] Army Secretary Ryan D. McCarthy and Army Chief of Staff General James McConville later issued a joint statement saying: "There is no role for the U.S. military in determining the outcome of an American election."[490] In a December 20 tweet, Trump dismissed accusations that he wanted to declare martial law as "fake news".[491]
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing attorney general William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.[492]
Plot for state legislatures to choose electors
Both before and after the election, Trump and other Republican leaders publicly considered asking certain Republican-controlled state legislatures to select presidential electors favoring Trump, even if Biden won the popular vote in those states.[493] In Pennsylvania, a state which Biden won, the president's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani asked a federal judge to consider allowing the Republican-controlled state legislature to select electors.[494] Legal experts, including New York University law professor Richard Pildes, have raised numerous legal and political objections to this policy, noting that in various battleground states, Democratic Party members holding statewide office would thwart such efforts,[495] and ultimately Congress would probably reject the votes of legislatively appointed electors over those elected by the voters.[496] Law professor Lawrence Lessig noted that while the Constitution grants state legislatures the power to determine how electors are selected, including the power to directly appoint them, Article II, Section 1, Clause 4 gives Congress the power to determine when electors must be appointed, which they have designated to be Election Day, meaning that legislatures cannot change how electors are appointed for an election after this date.[497] In modern times, most states have used a popular vote within their state as the determining factor in who gets all the state's electors,[495] and changing election rules after an election could also violate the Constitution's Due Process Clause.[498]
Pressure on state and local officials
As the Trump campaign's lawsuits were repeatedly rejected in court, Trump personally communicated with Republican local and state officials in at least three states, including state legislators, attorneys general, and governors who had supported him during and after the elections. He pressured them to overturn the election results in their states by recounting votes, throwing out certain votes, or getting the state legislature to replace the elected Democratic slate of Electoral College members with a Republican slate of electors chosen by the legislature.[499] In late November, he personally phoned Republican members of two county electoral boards in Michigan, urging them to reverse their vote certifications.[500] He invited members of the Michigan state legislature to the White House, where they declined his suggestion that they choose a new slate of electors.[501] He repeatedly spoke to the Republican governor of Georgia and the secretary of state, demanding that they reverse their state's election results, and retaliating when they did not, strongly criticizing them in speeches and tweets, and demanding that the governor resign.[502]
During the first week of December, Trump twice phoned the speaker of the Pennsylvania state House of Representatives, urging him to appoint a replacement slate of electors; the speaker said he did not have that power but later joined in a letter encouraging the state's representatives in Congress to dispute the results.[499] On January 4 The Washington Post reported that in a phone call on January 2, Trump pressured Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to overturn the state's result, telling him "I just want to find 11,780 votes" and threatening him with legal action if he did not cooperate.[34][503] On January 4, 2021, Democratic congressional leaders, believing Trump "engaged in solicitation of, or conspiracy to commit, a number of election crimes", requested the FBI to investigate the incident.[504] In addition, while some House Republicans tried to defend Trump's Georgia call, Democrats began drafting a censure resolution.[505] Two months later The Washington Post acknowledged that they had misquoted Trump, and added a correction to the article.[506] Also on January 2, 2021, Trump took part in a mass phone call with nearly 300 state legislators from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, in which he urged them to "decertify" the election results in their states.[507]
Recounts
On November 11, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger ordered a statewide hand recount of the vote in addition to the normal audit process. At the time, Biden held a lead of 13,558 votes.[508] The audit was concluded on November 19 and affirmed Biden's lead by 12,284 votes. Therefore, the results of the hand recount netted Trump 1,274 votes. The change in the count was due to a number of human errors, including memory cards that did not upload properly to the state servers, and was not attributable to any fraud in the original tally.[509][510] After certifying the results Republican governor Brian Kemp called for another hand audit, demanding to compare signatures on absentee ballot requests to actual ballots, despite the fact that this request was impossible,[462] as signatures on mail-in ballot applications and envelopes are checked when they are originally received by election offices, and that ballots are thereafter separated from envelopes to ensure the secrecy of the ballot.[511][512] The Trump campaign requested a machine recount, which was estimated to cost taxpayers $200,000 in one Georgia county alone.[513] On December 7, Biden was confirmed as the winner of the recount requested by Trump's campaign.[462]
On November 18, the Trump campaign wired $3million to pay for partial recounts in Milwaukee County and Dane County, Wisconsin, where Milwaukee and Madison, the two largest cities in the state and Democratic strongholds, are located.[514][515] During the recount, Milwaukee County election commissioner Tim Posnanski said several Republican observers were breaking rules by posing as independents.[516] The recount started November 20 and concluded on November 29, increasing Biden's lead by 87 votes.[517]
Electoral College votes
The presidential electors met in the state capitol of each state and in the District of Columbia on December 14, 2020, and formalized Biden's victory, casting 306 votes for Biden/Harris and 232 votes for Trump/Pence.[518][519] Unlike the 2016 election, there were no faithless electors.[520] In six swing states won by Biden, groups of self-appointed Republican "alternate electors" met on the same day to vote for Trump. These alternate slates were not signed by the governors of the states they claim to represent, did not have the backing of any state legislature, and have no legal status.[519][521]
Even after the casting of the electoral votes and rejection of his lawsuits seeking to overturn the election by at least 86 judges,[519] Trump refused to concede defeat.[518][519][522] In a speech following the Electoral College vote, Biden praised the resiliency of U.S. democratic institutions and the high election turnout (calling it "one of the most amazing demonstrations of civic duty we've ever seen in our country") and called for national unity. Biden also condemned Trump, and those who backed his efforts to subvert the election outcome, for adopting a stance "so extreme that we've never seen it before – a position that refused to respect the will of the people, refused to respect the rule of law and refused to honor our Constitution" and for exposing state election workers and officials to "political pressure, verbal abuse and even threats of physical violence" that was "simply unconscionable".[523][522]
The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House; there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states,[524][525] meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote.[526][527] A statement from the vice president's office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to "raise objections and bring forward evidence" challenging the election results.[528]
On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted.[529][530] The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction.[531][532] The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.[533]
As vice president, Pence was due to preside over the January 6, 2021, congressional session to count the electoral votes, which is normally a non-controversial, ceremonial event. In January 2021, Trump began to pressure Pence to take action to overturn the election, demanding both in public and in private that Pence use his position to overturn the election results in swing states and declare Trump and Pence the winners of the election.[534] Pence demurred that the law does not give him that power.[535]
Starting in December, Trump called for his supporters to stage a massive protest in Washington, D.C., on January6 to argue against certification of the electoral vote, using tweets such as "Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!"[536] D.C. police were concerned, and the National Guard was alerted because several rallies in December had turned violent.[537]
On January 6, 2021, shortly after Trump continued to press false claims of election fraud at a rally on the Ellipse in Washington, D.C., a crowd of Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol, interrupting the Joint session of the United States Congress where the Electoral College ballots were being certified and forcing lawmakers to flee the chamber. As part of an organized effort by Republican lawmakers to challenge the results in close states, the House and the Senate were meeting separately to debate the results of Arizona's election and accepting the electoral college ballots submitted. Several other challenges were also planned. Congress reconvened that same night, after the Capitol was cleared of trespassers, and leaders of both parties, including Vice President Mike Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Speaker Mitch McConnell urged the legislators to confirm the electors. The Senate resumed its session at around 8:00p.m. to finish debating the objection to the Arizona and Pennsylvania electors were also considered. The joint session completed its work shortly before 4:00a.m. on Thursday, January 7, declaring Biden and Harris the winners.[538][539][540][541][542][543][544]
The rioters entered the House and Senate chambers and vandalized offices. Five people died as a result: one person was shot by police, one Capitol Police officer died from a stroke after fisticuffs with rioters,[545] one person died of a heart attack, another of a stroke, and the final death is still under investigation. Trump was accused of inciting the violence with his rhetoric,[546] an accusation reinforced with an article of impeachment on January 13 for "incitement of insurrection".[547] Several commentators viewed the attack on the Capitol Building as an indicator of political instability that could lead to political violence in future elections, ranging from domestic terrorism to a second American Civil War.[548][549][550][551][552][553]
Post-certification
On May 10, 2021, over 120 retired U.S. generals and admirals published an open letter alleging that there had been "election irregularities", suggesting that the election had not been "fair and honest" and did not "accurately reflect the "will of the people", and arguing for tighter restrictions on voting.[554] On May 12, 2021, U.S. Representative Liz Cheney was removed from her party leadership role as Chair of the House Republican Conference, partially for continuing to assert that the election had been fair and that the election results were final.[555][556][557]
Well into Biden's presidency, Trump continues to insist that he had actually won the 2020 election.[558] As of August 2021, surveys found that a majority of Republicans believe it.[559] A widespread rumor predicted that Trump would be somehow reinstated to the presidency in August 2021, although the predicted date of August 13 passed without incident.[560]
Election audits
On March 31, 2021, the Republican caucus of the Arizona State Senate hired several outside firms to examine the results of the presidential and senatorial elections in Maricopa County, where Biden had won by a large margin.[561] There had been three previous audits and recounts of that county's results.[562] The examination was initially funded by $150,000 from the State Senate operating budget; additional funding was to come from outside sources.[563] In July the lead firm conducting the review released a summary of major donors, indicating $5.7 million was raised from five groups associated with individuals who had cast doubt on the presidential election.[564] The audit began on April 22, 2021, and was expected to last 60 days.[565] The investigation was still ongoing in August when a judge issued an order for the release of documents.[566] On September 24, a preliminary release of the audit claimed to have found minor discrepancies in the original, state-certified count, which had actually widened Biden's margin by 360 votes.[567]
^ a bAbout 64% of voters voted early before November3 in person or by mail, with the earliest state starting on September4.[7][8]
^The Federal Election Commission calculated a voter turnout of 62.8% in 2020, as the votes for president divided by the estimated U.S. population at or over age 18.[1] The denominator included U.S. residents ineligible to vote due to not being U.S. citizens or due to a criminal conviction, and excluded U.S. citizens residing in other countries who were eligible to vote. This turnout was an increase of 7.1pp compared to the turnout of 55.7% in the 2016 election, calculated by the same institution with the same basis.[2]
The U.S. Census Bureau calculated a voter turnout of 66.8% in 2020, as the people reporting having voted divided by the estimated U.S. population at or over age 18 who were U.S. citizens. The denominator excluded U.S. residents ineligible to vote due to not being U.S. citizens, but included those ineligible due to a criminal conviction and excluded U.S. citizens residing in other countries who were eligible to vote. This turnout was an increase of 5.4pp compared to the turnout of 61.4% in the 2016 election, calculated by the same institution with the same basis.[3]
The U.S. Elections Project calculated a voter turnout of 66.6% in 2020, as the total ballots divided by the estimated population that was eligible to vote.[4] The denominator excluded U.S. residents ineligible to vote due to not being U.S. citizens or due to a criminal conviction, and included U.S. citizens residing in other countries who were eligible to vote. This turnout was an increase of 6.5pp compared to the turnout of 60.1% in the 2016 election, calculated by the same institution with the same basis.[5]
^Although claimed in Hawkins's campaign website, he did not obtain write-in access in Montana.[71]
^Candidates in bold were listed on ballots of states representing most of the electoral college. Other candidates were listed on ballots of more than one state and were listed on ballots or were write-in candidates in states representing most of the electoral college.
^In some states, some presidential candidates were listed with a different or no vice presidential candidate.
^In some states, some candidates were listed with a different or additional party, a label, or as independent or unaffiliated.
^Following the cancellation of the planned second debate on October 9, both candidates held separate but simultaneous televised town hall events on the intended date of October 15. Trump's was broadcast on NBC, moderated by Savannah Guthrie, while Biden's was on ABC, moderated by George Stephanopoulos.[253]
^ a bCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^Although Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992 defeated their incumbent opponents by wider popular-vote margins than Biden's, their shares of the vote were kept lower by substantial third-party voting.
^Percentage point difference in margin from the 2016 election
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q rThese candidates may have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are included in others.
^ a bVotes for Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney, who were nominated to the ballot by the Green Party of Alaska instead of the national candidates,[345] are included in others. Hawkins/Walker may have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are also included in others.
^Others and total votes include votes for the ballot option "none of these candidates", which are counted as valid votes by the Nevada Secretary of State.
^Additional candidates may have received write-in votes, which were not reported and are not included in others, total votes or percentages.
^This table reflects the results certified by the state, which recorded some write-in votes differently from those reported by some counties.[346][347]
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Further reading
Amlani, Sharif; Collitt, Samuel (2022). "The Impact of Vote-By-Mail Policy on Turnout and Vote Share in the 2020 Election" (PDF). Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy. 21 (2): 135–149. doi:10.1089/elj.2021.0015. S2CID 246940693.
Clarke, Harold; Stewart, Marianne C.; Ho, Karl (2021). "Did Covid-19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election". Social Science Quarterly. 102 (5): 2194–2209. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12992. PMC 8242570. PMID 34226770.
Karni, Annie (October 12, 2020). "The Crowded, Competitive World of Anti-Trump G.O.P. Groups". The New York Times. Archived from the original on October 12, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
Martin, Jonathan, and Alexander Burns. This Will Not Pass : Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America's Future (2022) by two New York Times reporters excerpt
Panagopoulos, Costas (2021). "Polls and Elections Accuracy and Bias in the 2020 U.S. General Election Polls" (PDF). Presidential Studies Quarterly. 51: 214–227. doi:10.1111/psq.12710. S2CID 233802562.
Persily, Nathaniel; Stewart III, Charles (2021). "The Miracle and Tragedy of the 2020 U.S. Election" (PDF). Journal of Democracy. 32 (2): 159–178. doi:10.1353/JOD.2021.0026. hdl:1721.1/138152. S2CID 234919959.
Sides, John; Tausanovitch, Chris; Vavreck, Lynn (2023). The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy. Princeton University Press.
Wasserman, Dave (October 1, 2020). "Trump Is Winning the Voter Registration Battle Against Biden in Key States". NBC News. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
Witte, Griff; Kelley, Pam; Spolar, Christine (October 11, 2020). "As Trump Stumbles, Voters Finalize Their Choices, and Biden's Lead Grows". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
Voter fraud
Eggers, Andrew C.; Garro, Haritz; Grimmer, Justin (2021). "No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 election". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118 (45). Bibcode:2021PNAS..11803619E. doi:10.1073/pnas.2103619118. PMC 8609310. PMID 34728563.
Goethals, George R. (2021). "The 2020 election and its aftermath: Love, lies, and ensorceling leadership". Leadership. 17 (2): 240–250. doi:10.1177/1742715021994352. S2CID 232162258.
Pennycook, Gordon; Rand, David G. (2021). "Research note: Examining false beliefs about voter fraud in the wake of the 2020 Presidential Election" (PDF). Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review. doi:10.37016/mr-2020-51. S2CID 234314659.
Policy implications
Blendon, Robert J.; Benson, John M. (2020). "Implications of the 2020 Election for U.S. Health Policy". New England Journal of Medicine. 383 (18): e105. doi:10.1056/NEJMsr2031592. PMID 33113302. S2CID 226026573.
Wright, Thomas (2020), The point of no return: the 2020 election and the crisis of American foreign policy (PDF), Lowy Institute for International Policy, archived from the original (PDF) on January 24, 2022, retrieved August 17, 2022
External links
2020 United States presidential election at Wikipedia's sister projects
Media from Commons
News from Wikinews
Quotations from Wikiquote
Data from Wikidata
General Elections, 3 November 2020, Reports and findings from the OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission
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Quotations from Wikiquote
Data from Wikidata
