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Elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental de 2021

Las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental de 2021 fueron las decimoséptimas elecciones legislativas quinquenales celebradas en Bengala Occidental , para elegir a los 294 miembros de la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental . Este proceso electoral de 292 escaños se desarrolló entre el 27 de marzo y el 29 de abril de 2021 , y se desarrolló en ocho fases. [3] La votación para los dos distritos electorales restantes se retrasó hasta el 30 de septiembre de 2021. [4]

El actual gobierno del All India Trinamool Congress, liderado por Mamata Banerjee , ganó las elecciones por una mayoría aplastante, a pesar de que las encuestas de opinión en general pronosticaban una carrera reñida contra el Bharatiya Janata Party , que se convirtió en la oposición oficial con 77 escaños. El Frente Secular Indio ganó un escaño, y el Congreso Nacional Indio y el Frente de Izquierda no ganaron ningún escaño. [5]

Fondo

Sistema electoral

Según el artículo 168 de la Constitución de la India , la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental es la única cámara de la legislatura unicameral de Bengala Occidental , no un órgano permanente y está sujeta a disolución . [6] El mandato de la asamblea dura cinco años a menos que se disuelva antes. Los miembros de la Asamblea Legislativa son elegidos directamente por el pueblo, y el mandato de la Decimosexta Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental estaba previsto que finalizara el 30 de mayo de 2021. [7]

Elecciones generales anteriores

En las elecciones de 2016 , el All India Trinamool Congress (AITC o TMC) mantuvo su mayoría en la Asamblea Legislativa con 211 escaños. El Congreso Nacional Indio ganó 44 escaños y el Frente de Izquierda ganó 33 escaños de su alianza, mientras que el Bharatiya Janata Party y el Gorkha Janmukti Morcha ganaron 3 escaños cada uno de los 294 escaños totales. [8]

Acontecimientos políticos

Desde las elecciones parciales celebradas para el escaño de Kanthi Sur en 2017, se hizo evidente que el Partido Bharatiya Janata (BJP) había superado al Frente de Izquierda como el principal partido de oposición en el estado. [9] Según varios analistas políticos , el desplazamiento del Frente de Izquierda y otros votantes de la oposición hacia el BJP hizo que la cuota de voto del partido aumentara significativamente. [10] [11] A pesar de la violencia generalizada, el BJP emergió como el segundo partido más grande en las elecciones de 2018 a los panchayats estatales principalmente debido al desplazamiento de la base de votantes del Frente de Izquierda. El estereotipo de larga data de que los hindúes bengalíes son reacios a la política de derecha se hizo añicos cuando el BJP ganó las elecciones a la asamblea de 2018 en Tripura , otro estado indio con una mayoría hindú bengalí, gobernado hasta entonces por la alianza de partidos comunistas liderada por el CPI (M) desde 1993.

Resultados de las elecciones Lok Sabha de 2019 en Bengala Occidental desglosados ​​por nivel Vidhan Sabha

En las elecciones generales de 2019 , el BJP aumentó su número de escaños en la Lok Sabha de 2 a 18, y obtuvo el 40% de los votos, un aumento respecto del 11% en las elecciones de 2016. El Congreso Trinamool (TMC) se redujo de 34 a 22 escaños, el Congreso Nacional Indio (INC) se redujo de 4 a 2 escaños, y por primera vez desde sus inicios individuales, ningún partido del Frente de Izquierda (a saber, CPI(M) , CPI , AIFB y RSP ) pudo ganar un solo escaño en el estado. [14] Este fue el mejor desempeño del BJP en el estado (donde nunca había ganado más de 2 escaños) en términos de escaños y votos compartidos. La ira pública hacia la corrupción y el vandalismo de una sección de los cuadros del TMC en las zonas rurales durante las elecciones panchayat de 2018, la polarización religiosa del BJP alimentada por el resentimiento de una sección de la sociedad hindú bengalí hacia las tácticas de apaciguamiento musulmán de Mamata Banerjee , [15] y el apoyo a gran escala de las comunidades Rajbongshi y Matua para conceder la ciudadanía india a inmigrantes bangladesíes exclusivamente no musulmanes [16] por temor a un cambio demográfico alimentado por la infiltración de inmigrantes musulmanes indocumentados de Bangladesh , supuestamente apoyados por Mamata Banerjee, se han citado como razones importantes detrás del ascenso del BJP en Bengala Occidental junto con el declive del Frente de Izquierda.

Con Narendra Modi convirtiéndose en el único primer ministro no perteneciente al Congreso que ha permanecido en el poder durante dos mandatos consecutivos (que suman diez años) sin depender del apoyo de la Alianza Democrática Nacional , y el BJP cumpliendo el deseo de su fundador Shyamaprasad Mukherjee [c] al revocar el estatus especial de Jammu y Cachemira [17] y la promesa de larga data de resolver la disputa de Ayodhya a favor de los hindúes , el partido consideró la formación de un gobierno estatal dirigido por el BJP en Bengala Occidental (un estado que históricamente nunca ha votado por partidos de derecha en gran número) por primera vez como un medio de rendir homenaje a Mukherjee, que provenía de allí. Una victoria del BJP en Bengala Occidental también habría desmoralizado los intentos de Mamata Banerjee de crear una alianza de partidos regionales no pertenecientes al BJP y no pertenecientes al Congreso que pudiera desempeñar un papel importante en las próximas elecciones generales. [18] [19]

El BJP aumentó sus escaños en la asamblea de 3 a 53 cuando la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental se disolvió a través de deserciones de los líderes del TMC, INC y del Frente de Izquierda, y elecciones parciales de 2016 a 2021. Un desertor destacado en diciembre de 2020 fue Suvendu Adhikari , [20] quien fue socio de Mamata Banerjee durante mucho tiempo y un ministro del gabinete estatal que estaba insatisfecho con la creciente influencia de su sobrino Abhishek Banerjee en el partido. Sin embargo, Adhikari reveló que estaba en contacto con el BJP desde 2014 después de unirse al partido. [21] Su padre Sisir Adhikari , el diputado de Kanthi , también desertó del TMC al BJP. [22] Otro ministro del gabinete, Rajib Banerjee , también se unió al BJP. [23]

Sin embargo, el TMC ganó el escaño de Kharagpur Sadar del BJP y el escaño de Kaliaganj del INC, mientras que retuvo el escaño de Karimpur en las elecciones parciales celebradas más tarde en 2019 [24] después de que Abhishek Banerjee contratara a Prashant Kishor como estratega electoral del Congreso Trinamool para las próximas elecciones. Las elecciones a los órganos municipales de Bengala Occidental (que incluyen 112 municipios [d] y las corporaciones municipales de Calcuta , Howrah , Bidhannagar , Chandannagar , Asansol y Siliguri ) no pudieron celebrarse según lo programado en 2020 debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en la India .

Cuestiones políticas

COVID-19

La pandemia se convirtió en un tema electoral. [29] [30] Se acusó al gobierno de "falsear" el recuento de casos positivos y muertes en la región, [31] y el gobierno estatal liderado por la AITC y el gobierno sindical liderado por el BJP se culparon mutuamente por el aumento de las infecciones por COVID-19 durante el curso de la campaña. [32]

El BJP acusó a Mamata Banerjee de no asistir a las reuniones de gestión de emergencia de COVID-19 celebradas durante los meses de campaña electoral, a pesar de la segunda ola de infecciones, [33] y de celebrar también mítines electorales. Sanjukta Morcha celebró el primer mitin de la Brigada antes de las elecciones en Bengala Occidental. [34] A mediados de abril, TMC solicitó la celebración de las fases restantes de las elecciones en una sola fase en medio del creciente número de casos de COVID, [35] pero fue rechazada por la Comisión Electoral de la India (ECI). [36]

Ciclón Amphan

Situación del parque Deshbandhu en Calcuta después del ciclón Amphan.

En mayo de 2020, un año antes de las elecciones de 2021, el ciclón Amphan azotó el estado. [37] [29] Después de su paso, se denunciaron acusaciones generalizadas de mala gestión [38] y estafa de ayuda. [39] [40] En algunos distritos estallaron protestas por las acusaciones, [41] [42] y la oposición lo convirtió en un tema electoral antes de las elecciones a la Asamblea. [43] [44]

Cuestiones de ciudadanía, inmigración y refugiados

En 2019, el Gobierno de la Unión liderado por el BJP aprobó la CAA en el Parlamento, prometiendo ciudadanía a los inmigrantes y refugiados pertenecientes a minorías religiosas en Bangladesh y proporcionándoles rehabilitación. [9] [45] El folleto bengalí del BJP publicado en enero de 2020 afirmó que el Registro Nacional de Ciudadanos se implementó para identificar a los inmigrantes musulmanes ilegales supuestamente indocumentados, pero los hindúes , sijs , budistas , cristianos , jainistas , parsis y otras minorías religiosas perseguidos religiosamente estarían "protegidos" por la CAA. [46] [47]

Otros temas

La polarización entre las distintas comunidades religiosas, lingüísticas y de castas también es probable que desempeñe un papel en estas elecciones. [48] Tanto el TMC como el BJP habían prometido planes para varias comunidades. [49] [50] Aunque anteriormente los gobiernos de izquierda los habían movilizado contra las élites bajo la narrativa de la "clase", los dalits de Bengala Occidental comenzaron a afirmar su identidad políticamente. [51] [52] [53] La polarización religiosa es particularmente intensa en los distritos que limitan con Bangladesh, como North 24 Parganas. Las discusiones sobre quiénes son nativos del estado y los distritos electorales también es probable que afecten las elecciones. [54] [55] [56] La insatisfacción y la deserción de muchos líderes del TMC al BJP, supuestamente debido a la creciente influencia de Abhishek Banerjee y Kishor en la administración del partido también es probable que afecten las elecciones. [57]

El Ministerio de Asuntos Culturales organizó un evento en el Victoria Memorial de Calcuta para conmemorar el 125 aniversario del nacimiento de Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose , al que asistieron el Primer Ministro Narendra Modi y la Ministra Principal Mamata Banerjee, entre otros. Una gran cantidad de activistas del BJP estaban presentes entre la multitud. [58] [59] Justo cuando Banerjee se levantó para hablar, los partidarios del BJP comenzaron a corear " Jai Shri Ram ", lo que llevó a la Ministra Principal a abandonar su discurso. [60] Este incidente condujo a una pelea política entre el BJP y el TMC antes de las próximas elecciones. Mientras tanto, el presidente del BJP de Bengala, Dilip Ghosh, hizo comentarios controvertidos sobre Netaji. [61] Mamata afirmó que el BJP había "insultado a Netaji y Bengala " con sus acciones. [62] [63] El liderazgo del BJP criticó a Banerjee mientras que el Frente de Izquierda y el Congreso la respaldaron y condenaron al BJP por el incidente del Victoria Memorial. [64] [65] [66] No sólo personalidades políticas sino también personas no políticas de diferentes niveles de la sociedad, incluido el sobrino nieto de Netaji, Sugata Bose , condenaron el incidente de corear consignas político-religiosas por parte de partidarios del BJP, lo cual era poco probable para un evento apolítico dedicado a Netaji. [67] [68] [69]

Cronograma

El Comisionado Electoral Jefe, Sunil Arora, celebra una conferencia de prensa para anunciar el calendario de elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental junto con Assam , Kerala , Tamil Nadu y Puducherry , en Nueva Delhi el 26 de febrero de 2021. También se ven a los comisionados electorales, Sushil Chandra y Rajiv Kumar y los altos funcionarios de ECI.

El calendario electoral se anunció el 26 de febrero de 2021, y la elección se celebró en ocho fases desde el 27 de marzo de 2021 hasta el 29 de abril de 2021. Los votos se contaron el 2 de mayo de 2021. [70] [71] El día del anuncio, la ECI declaró que los votantes discapacitados físicos y ancianos obtendrían el beneficio del voto por correo y el límite de tiempo para votar se extendió por una hora. [72] [73] Debido a anomalías en la votación, la nueva votación para la cabina número 88 en Jangipara se celebró en la cuarta fase. [74] Las elecciones en Jangipur y Samserganj se aplazaron debido a la muerte del candidato del INC en Samserganj y del candidato del Partido Socialista Revolucionario (RSP) en Jangipur. [75] La votación para estos dos escaños se reprogramó originalmente para el 13 de mayo de 2021, [76] pero como ese día era Eid, se retrasó al 16 de mayo. [77] Más tarde, la ECI aplazó las elecciones en ambos distritos electorales y se celebraron el 30 de septiembre. [78] La nueva votación en el centro de votación Amtali Madhyamik Siksha Kendra en Sitalkuchi se llevó a cabo el 29 de abril, después de que el personal de la CISF fuera despedido el 10 de abril. [79]

Partidos y alianzas

Congreso Trinamool de toda la India +

Mapa de los acuerdos de reparto de escaños del Congreso All India Trinamool para las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental de 2021.

Ambas facciones del Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) expresaron su apoyo al TMC en las elecciones a la asamblea. [82] El TMC asignó tres escaños en Darjeeling al GJM, pero sus dos facciones, a saber, Bimal y Binoy, declararon que presentarían a sus candidatos en cada uno de los tres escaños. [83] El RJD , el Shiv Sena y el JMM también apoyaron a Trinamool para las elecciones. [84] [85] [86] El TMC apoyó al candidato independiente en Joypur después de que se cancelara la nominación de su candidato. [87] [88]

Sanjukta Morcha

El 28 de enero de 2021, el líder del Congreso, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, anunció que las conversaciones para compartir escaños entre el Congreso y el Frente de Izquierda habían concluido para 193 escaños y que los 101 escaños restantes se decidirían en un momento posterior. [ 89] [90] De los 193 escaños acordados para el 28 de enero, 92 fueron para el Congreso y 101 para el Frente de Izquierda. [89] El Frente de Izquierda y el Congreso anunciaron en un mitin en el campo de desfiles de la Brigada el 28 de febrero de 2021 que formarían una alianza llamada Sanyukta Morcha con un grupo recién formado llamado ISF . [91] La ISF afirmó inicialmente que había conseguido 30 escaños de la cuota del Frente de Izquierda. [92] Después de que se concluyó el acuerdo final para compartir escaños, se anunció que el Frente de Izquierda competiría por 165 escaños, el Congreso por 92 escaños y la ISF por 37 escaños. [93] [94]

El presidente del Frente de Izquierda, Biman Bose, anunció los candidatos para la primera y segunda fase de las elecciones el 5 de marzo junto con los líderes del INC y la ISF, dejándoles escaños en la lista. [95] El INC reveló su primera lista de 13 candidatos para las dos primeras fases el 6 de marzo. [96] El Frente de Izquierda anunció su segunda lista de candidatos el 10 de marzo, compuesta por varias caras nuevas y jóvenes de la Federación de Estudiantes de toda la India (AISF), la Federación de Jóvenes de toda la India (AIYF) , la Federación de Estudiantes de la India (SFI) y la Federación de Jóvenes Demócratas de la India (DYFI), junto con ex ministros del gobierno del Frente de Izquierda y ex diputados; [97] Bose también nominó al presidente del estado de Bengala Occidental de DYFI, Minakshi Mukherjee , como candidato del CPI(M) para el escaño de Nandigram , que se mantuvo vacante en la primera lista publicada el 5 de marzo. [98] El 14 de marzo, el INC reveló su segunda lista de 34 candidatos el 14 de marzo, [99] y la ISF su primer conjunto de 20 candidatos. [100] Sanyukta Morcha anunció 15 candidatos más el 17 de marzo, de los cuales 9 provenían del Frente de Izquierda, 2 del INC y 4 del ISF. [101] El INC reveló su tercera lista de 39 candidatos el 20 de marzo, [102] y dos más el 22 de marzo.

Mapa del acuerdo de reparto de escaños entre los partidos de Sanjukta Morcha para las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental de 2021.

Alianza Democrática Nacional

Cinco partidos con base en las colinas prometieron su apoyo al BJP antes de las elecciones a la asamblea: el Frente de Liberación Nacional de Gorkha (GNLF), el Partido Comunista de Marxistas Revolucionarios , la Liga Akhil Bharatiya Gorkha (ABGL), Gorkhaland Rajya Nirman Morcha y SUMETI Mukti Morcha. [82] Hindu Samhati , una organización de derecha de Bengala Occidental, había retirado su apoyo al BJP en un principio [106] para presentarse a las elecciones por su cuenta, [107] pero finalmente apoyó al BJP. [108] El BJP asignó el escaño del distrito electoral de Amta al presidente de Hindu Samhati para que se presentara bajo el símbolo del BJP. [109]

Mapa de los acuerdos de reparto de escaños del Partido Bharatiya Janata para las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Bengala Occidental de 2021.

El BJP también asignó el distrito electoral de Baghmundi , fronterizo con Jharkhand , a la Unión de Estudiantes de Jharkhand (AJSU). [110] [111]

Otros

Shiv Sena dijo inicialmente que competirían por alrededor de 100 escaños, [112] pero luego, el 4 de marzo de 2021, anunció que no competirían y apoyarían a Mamata Banerjee y TMC. [113]

Candidatos

Encuestas y sondeos

Encuesta de salida

El 27 de marzo, la ECI prohibió la publicación de encuestas y sondeos a boca de urna hasta las 19:30 horas del 29 de abril para evitar influir en los votantes, [126] [127] pero la prohibición terminó media hora antes. [128]

La encuesta de salida de la revista digital NK predijo la victoria de TMC en las elecciones generales para el escaño de Samserganj y en las elecciones parciales para el escaño de Bhabanipur. [158] [159] [160] Ekhon Biswa Bangla Sangbad predijo la victoria de TMC en los tres escaños donde se celebraron elecciones el 30 de septiembre. [161]

Encuesta de opinión

En el transcurso de un año, hasta el 27 de marzo, diferentes agencias y grupos publicaron una serie de encuestas previas a las elecciones. La mayoría de las encuestas se contradecían entre sí en cuanto al posible resultado. [162]

La encuesta de opinión de la revista digital NK predijo la victoria de TMC en Jangipur y Samserganj. [182] [183] ​​[184] También realizaron una encuesta previa a las elecciones en los distritos electorales de la Asamblea que predijeron la victoria de TMC. [185] [186]

Elección

Pautas para la COVID-19

La ECI emitió varias directrices sanitarias para la realización de las elecciones, incluido el uso de mascarillas, la desinfección de las mesas de votación, el uso de escáneres térmicos antes de entrar en las mesas de votación, el mantenimiento del distanciamiento social, etc. [187] El número máximo de votantes por mesa de votación se redujo de 1500 a 1000. [188]

Un voluntario realiza un control térmico a los votantes en una cabina de votación durante la tercera fase de las elecciones a la Asamblea de Bengala Occidental, en Uluberia , Bengala Occidental, el 6 de abril de 2021.

Después de que los casos de COVID-19 aumentaran en el estado, [189] la ECI emitió advertencias para que todos los partidos políticos estatales y nacionales reconocidos siguieran estrictamente las pautas de COVID-19, [190] y prohibió todos los mítines políticos, reuniones públicas, obras de teatro callejeras y nukkad sabhas desde las 7 pm hasta las 10 am a partir del 16 de abril. [191] El 22 de abril de 2021, antes de la séptima y octava fase de votación, la ECI prohibió los espectáculos itinerantes y agregó que se permitía un máximo de 500 personas en las reuniones públicas. [192] El 27 de abril, emitieron una notificación sobre la prohibición de las procesiones de la victoria el día en que se contaron los votos y después. [193]

Preparaciones de seguridad

Una votante de edad avanzada emite su voto con la ayuda de oficiales de CAPF en el distrito electoral 260 Bardhaman Dakshin del distrito de Purba Bardhaman .

Tras varios episodios de violencia, amenazas y asesinatos antes de que se anunciaran las elecciones, la ECI y el Ministerio del Interior ordenaron el despliegue de doce compañías de las Fuerzas Armadas de Policía Central (CAPF) en Bengala Occidental el 20 de febrero. Al menos 125 tropas más de las CAPF fueron enviadas a Bengala Occidental el 25 de febrero para centrarse en zonas sensibles. [194] 60 compañías de la Fuerza de Policía de Reserva Central (CRPF), 30 compañías de la Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), 25 compañías de la Fuerza de Seguridad Fronteriza (BSF) y cinco compañías de la Fuerza de Seguridad Industrial Central (CISF) y de la Policía Fronteriza Indo-Tibetana (ITBP). [195] El número total de fuerzas centrales aumentó a 725, [196] [197] antes de un total final de 1.000 compañías después de la tercera fase de las elecciones. [198]

En la segunda fase de las elecciones, se aplicó la Sección 144 del Código de Procedimiento Penal en las zonas de las subdivisiones Tamluk y Haldia. [199] Después de la cuarta fase de las elecciones, la ECI desplegó 71 compañías adicionales de fuerzas centrales. [200]

Votación

Funcionarios electorales llevan las máquinas de votación electrónica y otros dispositivos necesarios para las elecciones a la Asamblea de Bengala Occidental en un centro de distribución en Uluberia , Bengala Occidental, el 5 de abril de 2021.
Marcas de tinta electorales para votantes primerizos después de emitir su voto en una cabina de votación durante la cuarta fase de las elecciones a la Asamblea de Bengala Occidental en la Escuela Primaria Nehru Colony, Regent Park , Calcuta , Bengala Occidental, el 10 de abril de 2021.
Los votantes hacen cola para emitir su voto en una cabina de votación durante la tercera fase de las elecciones a la Asamblea de Bengala Occidental, en Uluberia , Bengala Occidental, el 6 de abril de 2021.

Participación electoral

Fases

Incidentes

Resultados

Los resultados electorales de 292 distritos electorales se anunciaron el 2 de mayo de 2021 después de que el recuento de votos comenzara a las 8:00 am (UTC+5:30), mientras que los resultados de 2 distritos electorales se retrasaron hasta el 3 de octubre. [288] [289] [290] [291] [292]

Reparto de votos por alianza

  AITC (48,02%)
  Sanjukta Morcha (10,04%)
  NOTA (1,08%)
  Otros (2,88%)

Resultados por partido

Resultados por alianza

Porcentaje de votos por partido

  AITC (48,02%)
  IPC(M) (4,71%)
  INC (3,03%)
  ISF (1.35%)
  AIFB (0.53%)
  RSP (0.22%)
  CPI (0.20%)
  AJSU (0.10%)
  NOTA (1.08%)
  Others (2.78%)

Seat share by alliance

  AITC (73.13%)
  BJP (26.19%)
  SM (0.34%)
  GJM (T) (0.34%)

Results by polling phase

Region-wise results

Constituency-wise results

Controversies

Communist Party of India (Marxist) supporters and leaders accused No Vote To BJP campaign and CPIML Liberation of leading to the victory of All India Trinamool Congress. Relations between CPIM and CPIML Liberation weakened after 2021 West Bengal Legislative Election.[307][308]

No Vote To BJP campaign

No Vote To BJP was a non-partisan, Anti-BJP political campaign in West Bengal. The campaign motto was We requested to all peoples of the West Bengal, vote for anyone in the election, but not vote for the BJP on the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election..[309][310][311][312][313]

Nandigram controversy

On 18 January Mamata Banerjee announced at a rally in Nandigram that she would contest the upcoming assembly elections from Nandigram. Hours later, Suvendu Adhikari said he would defeat the CM by a margin of at least 50,000 votes or quit politics.[314][315]

On the eve of polling in Nandigram, the ECI ordered the transfer of the sub-divisional police officer of Haldia and the circle inspector of Mahishadal in Purba Medinipur district to non-election assignments[316] and imposed Section 144 in that constituency.[317] A day after the polling, stray clashes took place between workers of the TMC and the BJP in some parts of Nandigram.[318]

The votes were counted on 2 May. All eyes were set on the updates of high-voltage Nandigram constituency. 17 rounds of counting was to be done before declaring the winner. Mamata Banerjee was trailing in initial rounds. The EC informed that announcement of results for Nandigram would be delayed because of problem in server.[319] In the 16th round, when the counting of votes in Gokulnagar panchayat area started, Mamata fell behind.[320] After the 16th round, the counting of 17th round was delayed by an hour. Postal ballots were being counted at that time. At the end of the seventeenth round, it was announced that Mamata Banerjee had won by a margin of 1,200 (or 3,717) votes. Though later, it was declared that Suvendu had defeated (his) former party leader by approximately 1,956 votes.[304][1][305][306] Mamata banerjee continued to claim that she won Nandigram, Security was beefed up in the vicinity of the Haldia counting centre amid fears of unrest.

Mamata Banerjee alleged that the returning officer of Nandigram constituency was threatened and the two observers sitting inside the counting centre were very biased.[321][322][323]

The ECI wrote a letter to the West Bengal chief secretary and directed them to take all appropriate measures to keep a strict watch and regularly monitor the security provided to the returning officer in Nandigram.

Since Adhikari was declared winner, TMC workers protested outside the counting centre. Central Forces protected Adhikari's car while before it left the area. TMC workers alleged that the counting was stopped for three hours, the result was overturned after a power outage, and their agent was assaulted and thrown out from the counting centre by central forces.[324]

On 14 July, the High Court issued a notice to Adhikari, the ECI, the state electoral officer, and the returning officer with a direction to keep all election-related records intact until the case was heard on 12 August.[325][326] Adhikari went to the Supreme Court seeking transfer of Banerjee's election petition case outside the state.[327]

On 12 August, Adhikari's lawyers submitted before the court of Justice Sarkar that the legislator has approached the Supreme Court seeking transfer of the case from West Bengal. In keeping with the respondent's prayer, Justice Sarkar adjourned the hearing to 15 November.[328][329] On that date, Adhikari filed a petition in the Calcutta High Court seeking adjournment of the case. The High Court asked him to file a written statement explaining the reason for his no-confidence in the High Court by 29 November and it was decided that the next hearing would be held on 1 December.[330][331]

Reactions and analysis

For the first time since the creation of the state through division of Bengal Presidency, the state legislative assembly does not have any members from the INC or Left Front, who dominated and shaped the politics of the state until 1998 when the TMC was founded and overtook the INC as the main opposition party in the state.

Opinion polls and exit polls predicted a tight race between the TMC and BJP, and that TMC would win around 150 seats, BJP 140, with the remaining for Morcha. TMC won over 200 seats, while BJP overall performed poorly.[332] Although it was the best ever performance of the state BJP in terms of both seats (before 2016, it never had more than 1 seat in the state Legislative assembly) & voteshare (at the height of the Ram mandir agitation, BJP managed to win 11.34% of votes in the 1991 election), it wasn't as phenomenal as it was in 2019.

BJP's vote share fell from 40% in the 2019 elections to 38%. Reasons given were:

The TMC increased its vote share from 43% in 2019 elections to 48% in the election. Reasons given were:

The combined vote share of INC and Left Front fell from 11% in the 2019 general elections to 8% in this elections. Reasons given were:

Veteran BJP leader Tathagata Roy lashed out at the party leadership on Twitter for viewing the ground conditions in the state through what he called KDSA (i.e. Kailash Vijayvargiya, Dilip Ghosh, Shiv Prakash and Arvind Menon)[384] and questioned the party's decision to field Nogorer notis (transl. "City prostitutes"), referring to actresses Payel Sarkar, Tanushree Chakraborty and Srabanti Chatterjee, who were seen in a boat ride with TMC leader Madan Mitra in the past.[385] He also specifically blamed Dilip Ghosh's many controversial remarks, most notably his misogynistic comments against Goddess Durga, the most widely revered Hindu deity in Bengali Hindu society in his attempt to glorify Lord Rama, the most widely revered Hindu deity in North Indian Hindu society[m] & the ideological poster-boy of the RSS-BJP alongside Hanuman since the days of the Ram-mandir movement to justify the 'holier-than-thou' attitude of the Bengali Hindu supporters of BJP over the Bengali Hindus who don't support the BJP at a media conclave while campaigning for the elections, to be responsible for the party's poor performance. His Nogorer Noti remark drew widespread criticism online.

The average winning margin of all the candidates in this election stood at 26,964 votes, while the same for AITC candidates was 31,760 votes.[386] This loss was stated by the media to be Modi's personal failure.[387]

In view of the popular slogan "Khela Hobe", Mamata Banerjee declared that her party would observe 16 August as Khela Hobe Divas, which the BJP tried to link with Direct Action Day.[388] She also launched a government scheme named "Khela Hobe" which granted 5,00,000 INR and free footballs among 25,000 sporting clubs in the state to promote sports in economically poorer sections of society.[389]

Countering Shah's claim that BJP would come to power in West Bengal by winning around 200 or more seats out of the 294 seats in the state legislative assembly,[390][391] Kishor publicly declared that he would resign from his job if BJP managed to win more than a 100 seats in this elections.[392] Although he delivered his promise, Kishor declared his retirement from on being an election strategist on 2 May, citing personal reasons.[393][394][395]

Allegations of partial Election Commission

Election strategist Prashant Kishor who helped TMC in the elections, accused the Election Commission of being partial and helping the BJP saying, "I have never seen a more partial Election Commission... It did everything to help the BJP... From allowing the use of religion to scheduling the poll and bending the rules, the ECI did everything to help the BJP."[396]

Aftermath

Violence

Politically motivated violence in West Bengal took place since before the 2021 West Bengal elections.

In June 2019, 2 Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers were killed in Bengal. The party had blamed Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) for it.

Indian Home Minister and BJP member Amit Shah said that more than 300 BJP members were killed due to the political violence as of December 2020 and that "investigation in those cases hasn't moved an inch".

After results were announced, post-poll violence broke out in some areas of the state. In reality it was continuation of the violence which took place across the state during the election.[397][398] In recent times, the first occurrence of post-poll violence in the state was recorded in 2019 when BJP members targeted TMC staff and forcibly occupied or vandalised local TMC offices, mainly at the behest of the newly elected Barrackpore MP Arjun Singh.[399][400]

On May 2, the results had just started showing signs of Trinamool returning to power when the men arrived, going house to house, ransacking them, breaking some. By the end of the day, 40 families of a colony located on KPC Medical College grounds in Jadavpur had fled. All BJP supporters or workers say TMC threats had kept them away for two-and-a-half months .[401]

Government formation

Mamata Banerjee took an oath as the Chief Minister of West Bengal for the third time on 5 May 2021 at the Raj Bhawan in Kolkata.[402] She expanded the cabinet on 10 May 2021 when 43 TMC leaders were sworn in as ministers.[403] 17 new people were in the Third Banerjee ministry.[404][405]

Vacant seats

TMC candidate Kajal Sinha from Khardaha died from COVID-19 after polling but before the results of the state assembly elections were announced, in which he emerged victorious.[406] The ECI deferred the elections to two assembly seats in West Bengal in view of the COVID-19 pandemic. The polling had been rescheduled earlier to 16 May 2021 due to the death of two contestants from the Samserganj and Jangipur constituencies.[407] Mocking this decision, the TMC said "The Election Commission, though late, finally woke up. But when demands were made repeatedly to arrange the election in one day by combining 2–3 phases, then they remained silent."[408] Two BJP MLAs – Nisith Pramanik from Dinhata and Jaganath Sarkar from Shantipur constituencies – resigned after the election results, as they were sitting MPs from Cooch Behar and Ranaghat, respectively, and wanted to continue as MPs.[409] Jayanta Naskar, TMC MLA of Gosaba, died from COVID-19 on 19 June after testing negative for the disease.[410][411][412]

Appointments

Adhikari, with the support of 22 MLAs, was elected as Leader of Opposition in the West Bengal Legislative Assembly on 10 May 2021.[413][414]

BJP MPs Subhash Sarkar from Bankura, John Barla from Alipurduar, Nisith Pramanik from Coochbehar, and Shantanu Thakur from Bangaon were made ministers-of-state in the Union Caninet after the polls.[415]

Incumbent Cabinet ministers from the state, Babul Supriyo from Asansol and Debasree Chaudhuri from Raiganj, resigned from their positions due to their failure in rallying the voters from their respective constituencies to vote for BJP.[416] After the Cabinet reshuffle, Supriyo stated that he was quitting politics and his position as an MP, but after meeting the leaders of BJP, he decided to retain his position as an MP. He later joined TMC, stating that he wanted to remain in politics but his political participation was being restricted by BJP due to his defeat from Tollyganj and the party's poor performance in Asanol.[417]

Abhishek Banerjee was promoted from the president of state TMC's youth wing to all-India general secretary.[418]

Long time RSS activist and Balurghat MP Sukanta Majumdar succeeded Dilip Ghosh as the president of the state BJP unit, while Ghosh was made one of the national vice-presidents of the party.[419]

Defections

The Union Home Ministry decided to provide Y+ category security to Sisir Adhikari and his son Dibyendu Adhikari.[420][421][422]

East Bardhaman MP Sunil Mondal, who had earlier defected from TMC to BJP alongside Adhikari in 2020,[20] declared in August that he was "always with the TMC".[423]

Adhikari demanded that the speaker Biman Banerjee dismiss Mukul Roy from the legislative assembly according to the anti-defection law, but TMC stated if Adhikari's father Sisir Adhikari can remain the MP from Kanthi even after switching from TMC to BJP in early 2021, then why Roy should be allowed to as well.[424]

Four other MLAs – Soumen Roy from Kaliaganj,[425] Biswajit Das from Bagda,[426] Tanmoy Ghosh from Bishnupur[427] and Krishna Kalyani from Raiganj[428][429][430][431] switched from BJP to TMC following Roy without being disqualified from their membership. All-India president of Congress's women's wing and its national spokesperson and former Silchar MP Sushmita Dev joined TMC,[432] and was followed by Luizinho Faleiro.[433][434][435]

After joining TMC,[436][437] Supriyo resigned as MP on 19 October.[438][439]

Two senior Congress leaders of Uttar Pradesh, Rajeshpati Tripathi and Laliteshpati Tripathi, grandson and great-grandson of former UP Chief Minister Kamalapati Tripathi, respectively, joined TMC.[440][441][442]

2021 by-polls

The ECI deferred the elections in Samserganj and Jangipur constituencies due to the death of two candidates.[75]

AITC MLA Sovandeb Chattopadhyay from Bhabanipur resigned after the election to allow Mamata Banerjee to contest a by-election in the constituency.[443]

In the beginning of September, the ECI announced that general elections for Jangipur and Samserganj assembly seats and by-election for Bhabanipur seat would be held on 30 September and votes would be counted on 3 October. The time limit for filing nominations was set from 6 September until 13 September for Bhabanipur only.[78][4][444] Mamata Banerjee filed hers on 10 September.[445][446] A total of 12 candidates contested in Bhabanipur by-poll.[447][448] Kishor enrolled himself as a voter from Bhabanipur, but he did not cast his vote.[449][450]

A total of 52 central forces companies were deployed to the three poll-bound Assembly constituencies' booths.[451][452][453][454] Section 144 was enforced in Bhabanipur on 28 September.[455][456] On the eve of polling, the Commission deployed an additional 20 companies of central forces in Bhabanipur.[457][458][459]

On 28 September, the ECI announced that remaining by-polls would be held on 30 October and votes counted on 2 November.[460][461]

On 30 September the first report of violence came from Samserganj, and Congress candidate Jaidur Rahaman was accused of carrying out a bombing in this constituency.[462] TMC activists raised "go back" slogans surrounding him while he inspected booths on polling day. Central forces were accused of kicking TMC leader Habibur Rahman, the outgoing councilor of Ward 20 of Dhulian Municipality under Samserganj Assembly.[463][464] Priyanka Tibrewal, BJP candidate of Bhabanipur, was accused of violating the ECI's model code of conduct by travelling across the area with many cars and people at once.[465][466] After she claimed to have caught fake voters, Firhad Hakim pointed out that as a candidate she had no right to check their identities.[467] BJP leader Kalyan Chaubey's car was allegedly vandalised in Bhabanipur and BJP blamed TMC for the act.[468] Police released CCTV footage of the incident, claiming it had nothing to do with politics.[469][470] BJP claimed that Chaubey was their candidate's election agent but according to Commission sources, he was the agent of a Hindustani Awam Morcha candidate. The vehicle he used to get to the polling constituency was not registered by the EC. BJP lodged a total of 23 complaints against TMC over the voting process in Bhabanipur, but the ECI dismissed all of them.[471] A total of 697,164 voters were eligible to cast their votes in the three constituencies.[296][297][201][202] The voter turnout for Samserganj, Jangipur, and Bhabanipur was recorded at 79.92%, 77.63%, and 57.09% respectively.[472][473]

Results were announced on 3 October, with TMC winning the three seats.[474] Mamata Banerjee won the Bhabanipur Assembly seat by a margin of 58,835 votes over the BJP candidate.[2][475][476] TMC led in all wards of Bhabanipur, including wards 70 and 74, where BJP led in the last assembly polls.[477] On the same day, TMC officially announced a list of candidates for upcoming assembly by-elections to four seats.[478]

The Model Code of Conduct was imposed in Nadia, Cooch Behar, Khardaha, and Gosaba.[479] The ECI initially deployed 27 companies of central forces for the remaining by-elections.[480][481] A week before the by-elections, an additional 53 companies entered the state.[482] Later, the ECI decided to deploy a total of 92 CAPF companies.[483]

On the last day of the Dinhata by-election campaign, Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar met the deputy inspector general of police, Shailendra Kumar Singh, at the Border Security Force sector headquarters of Sonari in Cooch Behar. This was controversial because the Chief Minister could not even hold administrative meetings with Cooch Behar district officials, as the model code of conduct was in effect. Reacting to this, Hakim said "Recently, the Ministry of Home Affairs has increased the jurisdiction of BSF to 50 km.[484][485][486] Taking advantage of this, the BJP leaders went to pull the BSF chief over to their side." TMC lodged a complaint with the ECI.[487][488] A TMC deputy went to the district magistrate's chamber and complained that the BSF-BJP meeting had violated the model code of conduct.[489]

On polling day, central forces were accused of intimidating voters at booth 296 in Dinhata and some other booths in Kharadaha and Gosaba.[490][491] In Kharadha, the central forces prevented TMC candidate Sovandeb Chattopadhyay from entering a booth, who alleged that they unfairly demanded to see double vaccination certificates from voters. The problem was resolved after informing the matter to the presiding officer.[492][493] During the election campaign, Joy Saha, BJP candidate of Khardaha, used a picture of the deceased TMC leader Kajal Sinha in his campaign.[494] On election day, he claimed to have caught two fake voters red-handed, which was proven false. When he claimed to have caught a fake voter and BJP supporters started harassing the man, a fight broke out between the TMC and the BJP over the incident.[495] Joy Saha's personal security guards baton charged TMC activists, injuring the Sinha's son in the process.[496][497] Gosaba registered highest voter turnout among four constituencies.[498][499]

The results of the four constituencies was announced on 2 November, with TMC winning all seats.[500] TMC's Sovandeb Chattopadhyay and Subrata Mondal won Khardaha[501] and Gosaba,[502] respectively, by huge margins. Udayan Guha, who lost the Dinhata seat by a margin of 57 votes during the assembly election, won the seat in the bypolls by a margin of 164,089 votes.[503] TMC also won the Santipur seat, where Braja Kishor Goswami[504] was the TMC candidate, from the BJP by a considerable margin of votes.[505]

See also

References

Notes

  1. ^ Ghosh was the sitting MP for Medinipur
  2. ^ Chowdhury was the sitting MP for Baharampur
  3. ^ Shyamaprasad Mukherjee was initially a member of the Hindu Mahasabha. After the Mahasabha became unpopular due to its involvement in the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi, Mukherjee formed a new Hindu right-wing party called Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS). During the Emergency era, Atal Bihari Vajpayee merged the BJS with other parties to form the Janata Party. Following disagreements with Morarji Desai over his Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) membership, Vajpayee broke away from the Janata Party and re-created the BJS under the name of BJP. Although Vajpayee is the legal founder of BJP, the party sees itself as a continuation of BJS and thus considers Mukherjee to be the founder of BJP.
  4. ^ Apart from these, an announcement about two new municipalities was made in October 2021.[25][26] Bally Municipality was re-established on 12 November 2021.[27][28]
  5. ^ a b c For candidates only sponsored by the Indian National Congress in Samserganj[80] and Revolutionary Socialist Party in Jangipur.[81]
  6. ^ Marxist Forward Bloc contested the election on the "Hammer Sickle and Star" symbol and name of national political party Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPIM).
  7. ^ Indian Secular Front is an unregistered political party and it contested the election on the "Envelope" symbol and name of Bihar-based political party Rashtriya Secular Majlis Party (RSMP).[105][94]
  8. ^ This survey was larger than any other opinion poll conducted by other agencies, on the basis of sample size, which for this survey was 147,000.
  9. ^ Apart from these, there were 128 overseas electors. Among them, 2 electors exercised their franchise.[103]
  10. ^ a b Election postponed due to candidate's death before the scheduled date of poll
  11. ^ Unlike in the Middle East, 'harem' in the Indian subcontinent referred to the inner apartments of a Muslim household exclusively reserved for concubines, while the same for legitimately-wedded wives is called as zenana
  12. ^ According to the definition of a Hindu, as espoused by Hindutva ideologue Vinayak Damodar Savarkar, the BJP regards the Adivasi people as part of the Hindu society, & the RSS has always tried to make the Adivasis abandon their indigenous folk religion in favour of mainstream Hinduism in order to facilitate their integration into Hindu society, however certain Adivasi groups have resisted these attempts & have demanded their religion to be recognised as a separate religion
  13. ^ worship of Rama is not much popular in Bengal, due to the influence of Radha Krishna-centric Gaudiya Vaishnavism, Shaktism centred around Durga & Kali and Shiva-centric Nath ideology

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Further reading

External links