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Potencial ampliación de la Unión Europea

Actualmente hay nueve estados reconocidos como candidatos a la adhesión a la Unión Europea : Albania , Bosnia y Herzegovina , Georgia , Moldavia , Montenegro , Macedonia del Norte , Serbia , Turquía y Ucrania . [1] Kosovo (cuya independencia no es reconocida por cinco estados miembros de la UE ) presentó formalmente su solicitud de adhesión en 2022 y es considerado un candidato potencial por la Unión Europea. Debido a múltiples factores, las conversaciones con Turquía están prácticamente paralizadas desde diciembre de 2016. [2]

Actualmente, seis candidatos están negociando activamente: Montenegro (desde 2012), Serbia (desde 2014), Albania (desde 2020), Macedonia del Norte (desde 2020), Moldavia y Ucrania (desde 2024). Hasta ahora, solo Montenegro ha alcanzado la etapa más avanzada de las negociaciones, definida como el cumplimiento de los puntos de referencia provisionales para los capítulos de negociación 23 y 24 que permiten iniciar el proceso de cierre de todos los capítulos de negociación. [3] El objetivo político declarado de Montenegro es lograr la adhesión a la UE en 2028. [4]

Los criterios de adhesión están incluidos en los criterios de Copenhague , acordados en 1993, y el Tratado de Maastricht (artículo 49). El artículo 49 del Tratado de Maastricht (enmendado) dice que cualquier "Estado europeo" que respete los "principios de libertad, democracia, respeto de los derechos humanos y las libertades fundamentales, y el estado de derecho", puede solicitar unirse a la UE. El hecho de que un país sea europeo o no está sujeto a una evaluación política por parte de las instituciones de la UE. [5] Las ampliaciones anteriores desde la fundación de la Unión Europea como Comunidad Económica Europea por los seis estados internos en 1958 [6] llevaron el número total de miembros de la UE a veintiocho, aunque como resultado de la retirada del Reino Unido , el número actual de estados miembros de la UE es de veintisiete.

De los cuatro principales países de Europa occidental que no son miembros de la UE, Noruega , Suiza e Islandia han presentado solicitudes de adhesión en el pasado, pero posteriormente las han congelado o retirado, mientras que el Reino Unido es un ex miembro. Noruega, Suiza, Islandia y Liechtenstein participan en el Mercado Único de la UE y también en el Espacio Schengen , lo que los hace estrechamente alineados con la UE; ninguno, sin embargo, está en la Unión Aduanera de la UE .

Agenda actual y postulantes

  Miembros actuales (27)
  Candidatos negociando (6)
  Candidatos (2)
  Solicitante / Candidato potencial (1)
  Candidato con negociaciones congeladas (1)

La actual agenda de ampliación de la Unión Europea contempla tres grupos distintos de Estados:

Estos estados deben negociar los términos de su adhesión a la UE con los estados miembros actuales y adecuar su legislación nacional al derecho de la UE antes de unirse.

Hay otros Estados europeos que aspiran a ser miembros o que podrían hacerlo si su actual política exterior cambia o si la UE da señales de que podrían ser incluidos en la agenda de ampliación. Sin embargo, estos no forman parte formalmente de la agenda actual, que ya está retrasada debido a las disputas bilaterales en los Balcanes y a la dificultad de aplicar plenamente el acervo comunitario (el cuerpo aceptado de leyes de la UE).

Anteriormente, lo habitual era que en las ampliaciones se incorporaran a la Unión varios países a la vez. Las únicas ampliaciones anteriores de un solo Estado fueron la admisión de Grecia en 1981 y la de Croacia en 2013. Sin embargo, los miembros de la UE han advertido de que, tras el importante efecto de la quinta ampliación en 2004 , en el futuro se adoptará un enfoque más individual, aunque lo más probable es que coincidan las entradas de pares o pequeños grupos de países. [7]

Procedimiento para convertirse en un estado miembro de la UE

Para que un Estado candidato pueda convertirse en miembro de la UE, es necesario superar varios pasos de procedimiento. Estos pasos harán que el Estado pase de solicitante (candidato potencial) a candidato y, más tarde, a candidato negociador. El estatus de candidato negociador se alcanza mediante la firma mutua de un marco de negociación en una primera conferencia intergubernamental. El inicio de las negociaciones sustanciales con la UE se marca posteriormente con la apertura de los primeros capítulos de negociación en una segunda conferencia intergubernamental. Cada 35 capítulos del cuerpo aceptado de la legislación de la UE (dividido en 6 grupos) deben abrirse y cerrarse durante conferencias intergubernamentales adicionales posteriores, para que un Estado concluya las negociaciones con la firma de un tratado de adhesión.

Tras una reforma en 2020, los 35 capítulos se han dividido en seis grupos principales, donde se supone que todos los capítulos del primer grupo deben abrirse juntos al mismo tiempo. La apertura de los capítulos solo puede realizarse mediante una decisión unánime del Consejo de la Unión Europea una vez que se haya completado el procedimiento de selección para los capítulos específicos en cuestión (mediante un informe que describa los cambios legislativos necesarios), aunque también se pueden establecer algunos "parámetros de referencia de apertura" que requieran que se cumpla una cierta cantidad de cambios legislativos/implementación incluso antes de la apertura del capítulo. El cierre de un capítulo se realiza de forma provisional mediante una decisión unánime del Consejo de la Unión Europea una vez que el estado demuestra haber implementado y alineado su legislación nacional con la legislación de la UE, para cada capítulo específico en cuestión.

No se exige que se complete el procedimiento de selección para los 35 capítulos de negociación antes del inicio de la primera y la segunda conferencia intergubernamental. [8]

Balcanes occidentales

La Unión Europea se ha comprometido a aceptar a los países de los Balcanes Occidentales como miembros de pleno derecho de la UE.

La cumbre del Consejo Europeo de 2003 en Salónica estableció la integración de los Balcanes Occidentales como una prioridad de la ampliación de la UE. Este compromiso se asumió con el fin de estabilizar la región tras las guerras yugoslavas , una serie de guerras étnicas que se produjeron a lo largo de la década de 1990 y que llevaron a la desintegración de Yugoslavia .

Eslovenia fue el primer país de la ex Yugoslavia en unirse a la UE en 2004 , seguido por Croacia en 2013 .

A Albania , Bosnia y Herzegovina , Montenegro , Macedonia del Norte y Serbia se les ha concedido oficialmente el estatus de país candidato. [9] [10] Kosovo , que es reclamado por Serbia y no reconocido por 5 estados de la UE , presentó su solicitud el 14 de diciembre de 2022 y la Unión Europea lo considera un candidato potencial. [11] [12]

Serbia y Montenegro, los candidatos más avanzados en sus procesos de negociación con la UE, podrían unirse a la UE en algún momento entre 2025 y 2030. [13] [14] [15] El objetivo político declarado de Montenegro es lograr la membresía en la UE en 2028. [4]

El Consejo Europeo había aprobado el inicio de las negociaciones con Albania y Macedonia del Norte el 26 de marzo de 2020 [16] , sin embargo, el proceso de negociación estuvo bloqueado por Bulgaria durante más de dos años [17] . [a] En junio de 2022, el presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, presentó una propuesta de compromiso que, de ser adoptada por ambos países, allanaría el camino para la adopción inmediata de marcos de negociación para Macedonia del Norte y Albania por parte del Consejo de la UE y para la organización de conferencias intergubernamentales con ellos [18] . El 24 de junio de 2022, el parlamento de Bulgaria aprobó la propuesta francesa revisada de levantar el veto del país a la apertura de las conversaciones de adhesión a la UE con Macedonia del Norte, y la Asamblea de Macedonia del Norte también lo hizo el 16 de julio de 2022, permitiendo que comenzaran las negociaciones de adhesión. El mismo día, el inicio de las negociaciones se fijó para el 19 de julio de 2022 [19] .

El 8 de noviembre de 2023, la Comisión Europea adoptó un nuevo Plan de Crecimiento para los Balcanes Occidentales , con el objetivo de acercarlos a la UE ofreciendo a la región algunos de los beneficios de la membresía en la UE antes de la adhesión . El Plan de Crecimiento proporciona 6 000 millones de euros en subvenciones financieras y préstamos para toda la región a cambio de la implementación de reformas estructurales. Además del apoyo financiero básico del plan de crecimiento, una de las acciones prioritarias adicionales incorporadas es otorgar acceso a la Zona Única de Pagos en Euros . [20]

El 8 de noviembre de 2023, la Comisión Europea recomendó abrir negociaciones con Bosnia y Herzegovina una vez que se alcance el grado necesario de cumplimiento de los criterios de adhesión. [21] El 12 de marzo de 2024, la Comisión Europea recomendó abrir negociaciones de adhesión a la UE con Bosnia y Herzegovina, citando los resultados positivos de las importantes reformas que el país promulgó. [22] [ 23] [24] El 21 de marzo de 2024, los 27 líderes de la UE, en representación del Consejo Europeo , se reunieron en una cumbre en Bruselas, donde aprobaron por unanimidad la apertura de las negociaciones de adhesión a la UE para Bosnia y Herzegovina. [25] [26]

Asociación Trío

En 2005, la Comisión Europea sugirió en un documento de estrategia que la actual agenda de ampliación podría bloquear potencialmente la posibilidad de una futura adhesión de Armenia , Azerbaiyán , Bielorrusia , Georgia , Moldavia y Ucrania . [27] Olli Rehn , Comisario Europeo de Ampliación entre 2004 y 2010, dijo en esa ocasión que la UE debería "evitar sobrecargar nuestra capacidad y, en su lugar, consolidar nuestra agenda de ampliación", añadiendo que "esta ya es una agenda desafiante para nuestro proceso de adhesión". [28]

Georgia, Moldavia y Ucrania ratificaron un Acuerdo de Asociación con la UE, y el Parlamento Europeo aprobó una resolución en 2014 que establece que "de conformidad con el artículo 49 del Tratado de la Unión Europea, Georgia, Moldavia y Ucrania, así como cualquier otro país europeo, que tenga una perspectiva europea, puede solicitar la adhesión a la UE de conformidad con los principios de democracia, respeto de las libertades fundamentales y los derechos humanos, derechos de las minorías y garantía del imperio de los derechos". [29] También entraron en el Área de Libre Comercio Profunda y Amplia con la UE, que crea "un marco para modernizar [...] las relaciones comerciales y para el desarrollo económico mediante la apertura de los mercados mediante la eliminación progresiva de los aranceles y cuotas aduaneras, y mediante una amplia armonización de leyes, normas y reglamentos en varios sectores relacionados con el comercio, creando las condiciones para alinear los sectores clave" de sus economías con los estándares de la UE. [30] Sin embargo, la UE no se expandió más en el espacio postsoviético en la década de 2010. [31]

En enero de 2021, Georgia y Ucrania se preparaban para solicitar formalmente su adhesión a la UE en 2024. [32] [33] [34] Sin embargo, tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania en 2022 , Ucrania presentó una solicitud de adhesión a la UE el 28 de febrero de 2022, seguida por Georgia y Moldavia el 3 de marzo de 2022. [35] [36] El 23 de junio de 2022, el Consejo Europeo concedió el estatuto de candidato a Moldavia y Ucrania, y reconoció a Georgia como posible candidato a la adhesión. [37] Al tomar su decisión sobre la candidatura de Ucrania y Moldavia, el Consejo condicionó la apertura de las negociaciones de adhesión a que se abordaran respectivamente siete y nueve áreas clave relacionadas con el fortalecimiento del Estado de derecho, la lucha contra la corrupción y la mejora de los procesos de gobernanza.

En su discurso en Moldavia del 28 de marzo de 2023, el presidente del Consejo Europeo, Charles Michel, mencionó que "a finales de año, el Consejo tendrá que decidir sobre la apertura de negociaciones con [Ucrania y Moldavia]. Será una decisión política que tendrá en cuenta el informe que publicará la Comisión. Y espero sinceramente que sea posible tomar una decisión positiva a finales de año". [38]

El 8 de noviembre de 2023, la Comisión Europea recomendó abrir negociaciones con Moldavia y Ucrania y conceder el estatus de candidato a Georgia, [21] y así lo acordó el Consejo Europeo el 14 de diciembre de 2023. [39]

El 25 de junio de 2024, la Presidencia belga del Consejo de la UE convocó la primera Conferencia Intergubernamental (CIG), marcando oficialmente el inicio de las negociaciones de adhesión con Moldavia y Ucrania. [40]

El Trío de Asociación a veces se amplía al Trío + 1 con la inclusión de Armenia , que no está formalmente en la agenda de ampliación de la UE pero está considerando presentar una solicitud de membresía.

El 9 de julio de 2024, tras la adaptación de una ley por parte del partido gobernante de Georgia, Sueño Georgiano, que exige que las entidades no gubernamentales y los medios de comunicación se registren como "agentes extranjeros", el embajador de la UE en Georgia anunció que había suspendido la adhesión del país al bloque. [41] [42]

Pavo

La candidatura de Turquía para unirse a la UE ha sido un asunto de gran importancia y considerable controversia desde que se le concedió en 1999. Turquía ha tenido históricamente estrechos vínculos con la UE, teniendo un acuerdo de asociación desde 1964 , [43] estando en una unión aduanera con la UE desde 1995 y solicitando inicialmente su adhesión en 1987. Sólo después de una cumbre en Bruselas el 17 de diciembre de 2004 (tras la importante ampliación de 2004 ) el Consejo Europeo anunció que las negociaciones de adhesión con Turquía se abrieron oficialmente el 3 de octubre de 2005.

Turquía es la undécima economía más grande del mundo (medida como paridad de poder adquisitivo), y es una potencia regional clave . [44] [45] En 2006, Carl Bildt , ex ministro de Asuntos Exteriores sueco , declaró que "[La adhesión de Turquía] daría a la UE un papel decisivo para la estabilidad en la parte oriental del Mediterráneo y el mar Negro, lo que claramente es de interés estratégico para Europa". [46] Sin embargo, otros, como el ex presidente francés Nicolas Sarkozy y la ex canciller alemana Angela Merkel , expresaron su oposición a la membresía de Turquía. Los opositores argumentan que Turquía no respeta los principios clave que se esperan en una democracia liberal , como la libertad de expresión . [47]

La gran población de Turquía también alteraría el equilibrio de poder en las instituciones representativas europeas. Al unirse a la UE, los 84 millones de habitantes de Turquía le otorgarían el mayor número de eurodiputados en el Parlamento Europeo . Se convertiría en el país más poblado de la UE. [48] Otro problema es que Turquía no reconoce a un estado miembro de la UE, Chipre , debido al problema chipriota y el gobierno chipriota bloquea algunos capítulos de las negociaciones de Turquía. [49] [50]

Las relaciones de Turquía con la UE se han deteriorado gravemente tras el intento de golpe de Estado turco de 2016 y las purgas posteriores . [49] [50] El 26 de julio de 2016, el presidente de la Comisión Europea, Jean-Claude Juncker, anunció que el proceso de adhesión de Turquía a la UE llegaría a su fin si se restablecía la pena de muerte en Turquía. [51] El 24 de noviembre de 2016, el Parlamento Europeo aprobó una resolución no vinculante que pedía la "congelación temporal de las negociaciones de adhesión en curso con Turquía" por cuestiones de derechos humanos y estado de derecho. [52] [53] [54] El 6 de julio de 2017, el Parlamento Europeo aceptó el llamamiento a la suspensión de las negociaciones de adhesión plena entre la UE y Turquía. [55] El 13 de diciembre, el Consejo Europeo (integrado por los jefes de Estado o de Gobierno de los Estados miembros) resolvió que no abriría nuevas áreas en las negociaciones de adhesión de Turquía en las "circunstancias imperantes", [56] ya que el camino de Turquía hacia un gobierno autocrático hacía imposible el progreso en la adhesión a la UE. [57] El 13 de marzo de 2019, el Parlamento Europeo aceptó el llamamiento a detener las negociaciones de adhesión plena entre la UE y Turquía. [58] A partir de 2022, y especialmente tras la victoria de Erdoğan en el referéndum constitucional , las negociaciones de adhesión turcas están prácticamente paralizadas. [2] [59] [60]

En julio de 2023, Erdoğan planteó la adhesión de Turquía a la UE en el contexto de la solicitud de Suecia de adhesión a la OTAN . [61] Sin embargo, en septiembre de 2023, anunció que la Unión Europea estaba en pleno proceso de ruptura de sus relaciones con Turquía y que podrían separarse durante el proceso de adhesión de Turquía a la Unión Europea. [62]

Tabla resumen

Cronología

Nivel de preparación para los capítulos del acervo

Situación actual

La siguiente tabla muestra el nivel de preparación de los países candidatos para la adopción del acervo comunitario , en una escala de 1 a 5 puntos, según los datos de los informes de 2023 de la Comisión Europea procesados ​​por European Pravda : [148]

Cambios durante el último año

La siguiente tabla muestra la evolución del nivel de preparación de los países candidatos para la adopción del acervo comunitario durante el último año, según los datos de los informes de 2023 de la Comisión Europea, tratados por European Pravda : [148]

Evaluación de las acciones realizadas durante el último año

La siguiente tabla muestra la evaluación de las acciones de los países candidatos durante el último año, según los datos de los informes 2023 de la Comisión Europea, procesados ​​por European Pravda : [148]

Estados que no están en la agenda

Países que podrían unirse a la Unión Europea
  Miembros actuales
  Países candidatos
  Países solicitantes/candidatos potenciales
  Posibilidad de afiliación
  No es posible afiliarse

El Tratado de Maastricht (artículo 49) establece que cualquier país europeo (según la definición de una evaluación del Consejo Europeo ) que esté comprometido con la democracia puede solicitar la membresía en la Unión Europea. [159] Además de los estados europeos, también se ha especulado o propuesto que otros países sean futuros miembros de la UE.

Los Estados europeos que han optado por no adherirse a la UE por diversas razones se han integrado en ella en distintos grados según sus circunstancias. Islandia, Noruega y Liechtenstein participan directamente en el mercado único a través del EEE , Suiza lo hace a través de tratados bilaterales y los demás microestados europeos ( Andorra , Mónaco , San Marino , Ciudad del Vaticano ) tienen acuerdos específicos con la UE y los países vecinos, incluido el uso del euro como moneda. La mayoría de estos países también forman parte del Espacio Schengen . Noruega, Islandia y Suiza han presentado anteriormente solicitudes activas para unirse a la UE, que han sido retiradas o congeladas de alguna otra manera. Dichas solicitudes podrían volver a presentarse en caso de que se produzca un cambio en el panorama político.

El 5 de marzo de 2024, el primer ministro armenio, Nikol Pashinyan, dijo que su país solicitaría la candidatura a la UE a más tardar en el otoño de 2024. [160] El 12 de marzo de 2024, el Parlamento Europeo aprobó una resolución que confirmaba que Armenia cumplía los requisitos del artículo 49 del Tratado de Maastricht y que el país podía solicitar la membresía en la UE. [161] En la Cumbre de la Democracia de Copenhague de 2024 , Pashinyan declaró que le gustaría que Armenia se convirtiera en miembro de la Unión Europea "este año". [162]

Other proposals

Internal enlargement scenarios

Internal enlargement is the process of new member states arising from the break-up of an existing member state.[203][204][205] There have been and are a number of active separatist movements within member states (for example in Catalonia and Flanders) but there are no clear agreements, treaties or precedents covering the scenario of an existing EU member state breaking into two or more states, both of which wish to remain EU member states. The question is whether one state is a successor and one a new applicant or, alternatively, both are new states which must be admitted to the EU.[206][207]

In some cases, a region desires to leave its state and the EU, namely those regions wishing to join Switzerland. But most, namely the two movements that held referendums during the 2010s, Scotland and Catalonia, see their future as independent states within the EU. This results in great interest in whether, once independent, they would retain EU membership or conversely whether they would have to re-apply. In the later case, since new members must be approved unanimously, any other state which has an interest in blocking their membership to deter similar independence movements could do so.[208][209] Additionally, it is unclear whether the successor state would retain any opt-outs that the parent state was entitled to.

Opinions on membership

Basque Country

The presence of a strong Basque Nationalist movement, strongly majoritary in several territories of the Basque Country, makes possible the future existence of an independent Basque Country under different potential territorial configurations. In overall terms the Basque nationalism is pro-European.

Catalonia

On 1 October 2017, the Catalan government held a referendum on independence, which had been declared illegal by the Constitutional Court of Spain, with potential polling stations being cordoned off by riot police. The subsequent events constituted a political crisis for Catalonia. The EU's position is to keep distance from the crisis while supporting Spain's territorial integrity and constitution.[219][220] While the debate around Scotland's referendum may inform the Catalan crisis, Catalonia is in a distinct situation from Scotland whereby the central government does not recognise the legitimacy of any independence declaration from Catalonia. If Spain does not recognise the independence of a Catalan state, Catalonia cannot separately join the EU and it is still recognised as part of Spain's EU membership.

Corsica

Corsica has a strong and electorally successful nationalist movement, with positions ranging from autonomy to outright independence, the latter option with around 10–15% public support.[221] The independist party Corsica Libera envisions an independent Corsica within the European Union as a union of various European peoples, as well as recommendations for alignment within European directives.[222]

Flanders

There is an active movement towards Flemish independence or union with the Netherlands. The future status of Wallonia and Brussels (the de facto capital of the EU) are unclear as viable political states, perhaps producing a unique situation from Scotland and Catalonia. There are various proposals, both within and outside the independentist movement, for what should happen to Brussels, ranging from staying part of the Belgian rump state, to joining the hypothetical Flemish state, to becoming a separate political entity.[223][224]

Sardinia

Sardinia has a strong and electorally successful nationalist movement, with positions ranging from autonomy to outright independence. Generally associated with left-wing politics, the Sardinian movement is largely pro-European and pro-environmentalism.[225][226]

According to a 2012 survey conducted in a joint effort between the University of Cagliari and that of Edinburgh,[227][228][229] 41% of Sardinians would be in favour of independence (with 10% choosing it from both Italy and the European Union, and 31% only from Italy with Sardinia remaining in the EU), whilst another 46% would rather have a larger autonomy within Italy and the EU, including fiscal power; 12% of people would be content to remain part of Italy and the EU with a Regional Council without any fiscal powers, and 1% in Italy and the EU without a Regional Council and fiscal powers.[230][231][232][233][234][235][236] A 2017 poll by the Ixè Institute found that 51% of those questioned identified as Sardinian (as opposed to an Italian average of 15% identifying by their region of origin), rather than Italian (19%), European (11%) and/or citizen of the world (19%).[237][238]

Sardinian nationalists address a number of issues, such as the environmental damage caused by the military forces[239][240][241][242][243][244][245][246][247] (about 60% of such bases in Italy are located on the island),[248] the financial and economic exploitation of the island's resources by the Italian state and mainland industrialists,[249] the lack of any political representation both in Italy and in the European Parliament[250][251] (due to an unbalanced electoral constituency that still remains to this day,[252] Sardinia has not had its own MEP since 1994),[253] the nuclear power and waste (on which a referendum was proposed by a Sardist party,[254] being held in 2011[255]) and the ongoing process of depopulation and Italianization that would destroy the Sardinian indigenous culture.[256]

Veneto

Similarly to Sardinia, Veneto has a strong and electorally successful nationalist movement, with positions ranging from autonomy to outright independence. In the 2014 independence referendum, an online unofficial referendum, 89% of participants were in favour of Veneto becoming "a federal, independent and sovereign state" and 55% supported accession to European Union membership.[257] Three years later, in the 2017 autonomy referendum, with a 58% turnout, 98% of Venetians voted in favour of "further forms and special conditions of autonomy to be attributed to the Region of Veneto".[258] Consequently, negotiations between the Venetian government and the Italian one started.

The longstanding and largest Venetist party, Liga Veneta (LV), was established in 1979 under the slogan "farther from Rome, closer to Europe",[259] but has later adopted more Eurosceptic positions. Luca Zaia, a LV member who has served as president of Veneto since 2010, usually self-describes as a pro-Europeanist and has long advocated for a "Europe of regions" and "macro-regions".[260][261][262][263]

Member state expansion scenarios

Cyprus

Area shown in orange under control of Northern Cyprus

Officially, the island nation of Cyprus is part of the European Union, under the de jure sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. Turkish Cypriots are citizens of the Republic of Cyprus and thus of the European Union, and were entitled to vote in the 2004 European Parliament election (though only a few hundred registered). The EU's acquis communautaire is suspended indefinitely in the northern third of the island, which has remained outside the control of the Republic of Cyprus since the Turkish invasion of 1974. The Greek Cypriot community rejected the Annan Plan for the settlement of the Cyprus dispute in a referendum on 24 April 2004. Had the referendum been in favour of the settlement proposal, the island (excluding the British Sovereign Base Areas) would have joined the European Union as the United Cyprus Republic. The European Union's relations with the Turkish Cypriot Community are handled by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Enlargement.[264]

Ireland

The European Council has recognised that following the UK withdrawal from the EU, if Northern Ireland were to be incorporated into a united Ireland it would automatically rejoin the EU under the current Irish membership. A historical precedent for this was the incorporation of East Germany into the Federal Republic of Germany as a single European Communities member state.[265][266]

Romania

Opinion polls in both Moldova and Romania show significant support for the unification of the two countries, based on their reciprocal historical and cultural ties.[267][268] Such a scenario would result in Moldova becoming part of an enlarged Romania and therefore receiving the benefits and obligations of the latter's EU membership.[269] An obstacle would be the existence of the breakaway Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria), which is considered by Moldova and most of the international community to be de jure part of Moldova's sovereign territory but is de facto independent. Transnistria's absence of strong historical or cultural links to Romania and its close political and military relationship with Russia have been seen as major hurdles to integration of the region with both Romania and the EU.[268] Another likely barrier from within Moldova would be opposition on the part of the autonomous territory of Gagauzia, whose population has been mostly against integration with Romania since at least the 1990s.[270] A 2014 referendum held by the Gagauzian government showed both overwhelming support for the region joining the Customs Union of the Eurasian Economic Union and a similar level of rejection to closer ties with the EU.[271]

Possible incorporation of special member state territories

  European Union
  Outermost regions
  Overseas countries and territories
  Special cases
  Other special territories

There are multiple special member state territories, some of which are not fully covered by the EU treaties and apply EU law only partially, if at all. It is possible for a dependency to change its status regarding the EU or some particular treaty or law provision. The territory may change its status from participation to leaving or from being outside to joining.

Danish self-governing territories

Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands, a self-governing nation within the Kingdom of Denmark, is not part of the EU, as explicitly asserted by both Rome treaties.[272] The relations with the EU are governed by a Fisheries Agreement (1977) and a Free Trade Agreement (1991, revised 1998). The main reason for remaining outside the EU is disagreements about the Common Fisheries Policy,[273] which disfavours countries with large fish resources. Also, every member has to pay for the Common Agricultural Policy, which favours countries having much agriculture which the Faroe Islands does not. When Iceland was in membership negotiations around 2010, there was a hope of better conditions for fish-rich countries[citation needed], but to no avail. The Common Fisheries Policy was introduced in 1970 for the very reason of getting access for the first EC members to waters of candidate countries, namely the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Denmark including the Faroe Islands[citation needed].

Nevertheless, there are politicians, mainly in the right-wing Union Party (Sambandsflokkurin), led by their chairman Kaj Leo Johannesen, who would like to see the Faroes as a member of the EU. However, the chairman of the left-wing Republic (Tjóðveldi), Høgni Hoydal, has expressed concerns that if the Faroes were to join the EU as is, they might vanish inside the EU, comparing this with the situation of the Shetland Islands and Åland today, and wants the local government to solve the political situation between the Faroes and Denmark first.[274]

Greenland

Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and became part of the EEC (the predecessor entity of the EU) when Denmark joined in 1973. After the establishment of Greenland's home rule in 1979, which made it an autonomous community, Greenland held a referendum on EEC membership. The result was (mainly because of the Common Fisheries Policy) to leave, so on 1 February 1985, Greenland left the EEC and EURATOM. Its status was changed to that of an Overseas Country.[275][276] Danish nationals residing in Greenland (i.e. all native population) are nonetheless fully European citizens; they are not, however, entitled to vote in European elections.

There has been some speculation as to whether Greenland may consider rejoining the now-European Union. On 4 January 2007, the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten quoted the former Danish minister for Greenland, Tom Høyem, as saying "I would not be surprised if Greenland again becomes a member of the EU... The EU needs the Arctic window and Greenland cannot alone manage the gigantic Arctic possibilities".[277] Greenland has a lot of natural resources, and Greenland has, especially during the 2000s commodities boom, contracted foreign private companies to exploit some of them, but the cost is considered too high, as Greenland is remote and severely lacks infrastructure which has to be built. After 2013 prices declined so such efforts stalled.

The Brexit debate has reignited talk about the EU in Greenland with calls for the island to join the Union again.[278]

Dutch Caribbean territories

The islands of Aruba and Curaçao, as well as Sint Maarten, are constituent countries of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, while Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are special Dutch municipalities. All are Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT) under Annex II of the EC treaty.[275] OCTs are considered to be "associated" with the EU and apply some portions of EU law. The islands are opting to become an Outermost Region (OMR) of the EU, a status in which the islands form a part of the European Union, though they benefit from derogations (exceptions) from some EU laws due to their geographical remoteness from mainland Europe. The islands are focusing on gaining the same status as the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, and the French overseas departments.

When Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba were established as Dutch public bodies after the dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles (which was an OCT) in 2010, their status within the EU was raised. Rather than change their status from an OCT to an outermost region, as their change in status within the Netherlands would imply, it was decided that their status would remain the same for at least five years. After those five years, their status would be reviewed.[needs update]

If it was decided that if one or all of the islands wish to integrate more with the EU then the Treaty of Lisbon provides for that following a unanimous decision from the European Council.[279] Former European Commissioner for Enlargement Danuta Hübner has said before the European Parliament that she does not expect many problems to occur with such a status change, as the population of the islands is only a few thousand people.[citation needed]

French overseas departments and collectivities

The territories of French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mayotte and Réunion are overseas departments of France and at the same time mono-departmental overseas regions. According to the EC treaty (article 299 2), all of these departments are outermost regions (OMR) of the EU—hence provisions of the EC treaty apply there while derogations are allowed. The status of the Overseas collectivity of Saint-Martin is also defined as OMR by the Treaty of Lisbon. New Caledonia and the overseas collectivities of French Polynesia, Saint-Barthelemy, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, and Wallis and Futuna are Overseas Countries and Territories of the EU.[275]

New Caledonia

New Caledonia is an overseas part of France with its own unique status under the French Constitution, which is distinct from that of overseas departments and collectivities. It is defined as an "overseas country" under the 1998 Nouméa Accord, and enjoys a high degree of self-government.[280] Currently, in regard to the EU, it is one of the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCT).

As a result of the Nouméa Accord, New Caledonians voted in three consecutive independence referendums in 2018, 2020, and 2021. The referendums were to determine whether the territory would remain a part of the French Republic as a "sui generis collectivity", or whether it would become an independent state. The accords also specify a gradual devolution of powers to the local New Caledonian assembly. The results of all three referendums determined that New Caledonia would remain a part of the French Republic.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Bulgaria demanded: "good neighbourly relations to be a criterion for the Republic of North Macedonia's membership in the EU; to use the official constitutional name of the Republic of North Macedonia instead of the short North Macedonia and the wording for the language should be the "official language" of the candidate country, not Macedonian."[17]

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Further reading

External links