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Elecciones para gobernador de Pensilvania de 2022

Las elecciones para gobernador de Pensilvania de 2022 se celebraron el 8 de noviembre de 2022 para elegir al gobernador y vicegobernador de Pensilvania . El fiscal general estatal demócrata Josh Shapiro derrotó al senador estatal republicano Doug Mastriano para ganar su primer mandato en el cargo. Shapiro sucedió al titular demócrata Tom Wolf , cuyo mandato estaba limitado.

En las primarias del 17 de mayo de 2022, Shapiro no tuvo oposición para la nominación demócrata. Mastriano, quien fue respaldado por el expresidente Donald Trump , ganó la nominación republicana con el 44% de los votos sobre el excongresista Lou Barletta y el exfiscal federal William McSwain . Aunque se esperaba que las elecciones fueran competitivas debido al estatus de Pensilvania como estado clave , Mastriano tuvo problemas para recaudar fondos, hizo pocas apariciones en los medios, cometió múltiples meteduras de pata, fue acusado de antisemitismo contra Shapiro y generó controversia por sus posiciones de extrema derecha . [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] Las luchas de Mastriano ayudaron a Shapiro a tomar una fuerte ventaja en las encuestas que se mantuvo hasta las elecciones.

Shapiro derrotó a Mastriano por casi 15 puntos, el mayor margen para un candidato no titular a gobernador de Pensilvania desde 1946 , y obtuvo la mayor cantidad de votos de un candidato a gobernador de Pensilvania con poco más de tres millones. [7] [8] Su gran margen de victoria fue acreditado por ayudar a los demócratas en las elecciones concurrentes . La victoria también marcó la primera vez desde 1844 que el Partido Demócrata ganó tres elecciones consecutivas para gobernador en Pensilvania.

Primarias demócratas

Gobernador

Campaña

El fiscal general de Pensilvania, Josh Shapiro , se presentó sin oposición y fue descrito como el candidato presunto del Partido Demócrata por The Philadelphia Inquirer y el Pennsylvania Capital-Star al comienzo de la campaña; el Capital-Star informó que los esfuerzos para reclutar un contrincante en las primarias a la izquierda de Shapiro (a quien el periódico considera progresista ) habían fracasado. [9] [10]

Candidatos

Candidato
No se pudo calificar para el acceso a la boleta
Rechazado

Respaldos

Josh Shapiro
Senadores estadounidenses
Ejecutivos estatales
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Legisladores estatales
Funcionarios locales
Funcionarios del partido
Sindicatos de trabajadores
Organizaciones
Individuos

Resultados

Teniente gobernador

El candidato demócrata Austin Davis

Candidatos

Candidato
Eliminado en primaria
Rechazado
Se retiró

Respaldos

Austin Davis
Ejecutivos estatales
Legisladores estatales
Representantes estatales
Funcionarios locales
Sindicatos de trabajadores
Periódicos y otros medios de comunicación
Organizaciones
Brian Sims
Organizaciones

Resultados

Resultados por condado
  Davis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

Primarias republicanas

En las primarias republicanas, los principales candidatos incluyeron al ex congresista Lou Barletta , al comisionado del condado de Montgomery Joe Gale, al estratega político Charlie Gerow , al ex fiscal federal William McSwain , al senador estatal Doug Mastriano y al ex concejal del condado de Delaware Dave White.

Varias cuestiones clave, como la elección de escuela , la exploración de gas natural en Pensilvania y la reforma fiscal, fueron temas tempranos en los debates del Partido Republicano de Pensilvania antes de las elecciones primarias, [75] mientras que las leyes electorales en la Commonwealth fueron un tema de debate posterior. [76]

Debido a su apoyo a la revocación de los resultados de las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 y su papel en el ataque al Capitolio de Estados Unidos del 6 de enero , muchos republicanos expresaron su preocupación por la capacidad de Mastriano para ganar las elecciones generales. Como resultado, el partido alentó a otros candidatos a retirarse para permitir que una alternativa a Mastriano ganara terreno. [77]

El 12 de mayo, el presidente pro tempore del Senado de Pensilvania, Jake Corman, se retiró y apoyó a Barletta. [78] El 14 de mayo, el expresidente Donald Trump respaldó a Mastriano. [79] [80] El 12 de mayo, The Philadelphia Inquirer informó que la exrepresentante estadounidense Melissa Hart también se retiraría y apoyaría a Barletta. [81] Mastriano ganó las primarias con casi el 44% de los votos, derrotando a su competidor más cercano, Barletta, por más de 23 puntos.

A mediados de junio, el New York Times informó que Mastriano había recibido ayuda del Partido Demócrata de Pensilvania y de la campaña de Shapiro en las primarias con un anuncio que lo equiparaba a Trump. Shapiro defendió la medida, diciendo que el anuncio demostraba el contraste entre él y Mastriano como parte de la campaña de las elecciones generales. El Times lo vio como parte de una estrategia nacional para conseguir oponentes más fáciles en noviembre. [82]

Gobernador

Candidatos

Candidato
Eliminado en primaria
Se retiró
Rechazado

Debates y foros

Respaldos

Lou Barletta
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Senadores estadounidenses
  • Rick Santorum , senador estadounidense por Pensilvania (1995-2007) y candidato a la presidencia en 2012 y 2016 (anteriormente apoyó a Corman) [120]
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Funcionarios estatales
Legisladores estatales
Organizaciones
  • Asociación de Trabajadores del Petróleo y el Gas [128]
Jake Corman (retirado)
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Senadores estadounidenses
  • Rick Santorum , ex senador estadounidense de Pensilvania (1995-2007) y candidato a la presidencia en 2012 y 2016 (cambió su apoyo a Barletta después de que Corman se retirara) [120]
Charlie Gerow
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Organizaciones
  • Unión Conservadora Americana [131]
Doug Mastriano
Presidentes de Estados Unidos
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Funcionarios locales
Organizaciones
Individuos
William McSwain
Senadores estadounidenses
Funcionarios del partido
Jason Richey (retirado)
Individuos
Dave Blanco
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Legisladores estatales
Se negó a respaldar
Organizaciones
Periódicos y otros medios de comunicación

Votación

Resumen gráfico

Resultados

Resultados por condado
  Mastriano
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Barletta
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  McSwain
  •   30–40%
  Blanco
  •   50–60%

Teniente gobernador

Candidatos

Candidato
Eliminado en primaria

Rechazado

Respaldos

Teddy Daniels
Legisladores estatales
Jeff Coleman
Senadores estadounidenses
Individuos
  • Brandon Flood, exsecretario de la Junta de Indultos de Pensilvania (2019-2021) [157]
Diamante ruso
Organizaciones
  • Defiende la libertad sanitaria [160]

Resultados

  Del Rosso
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Sacón
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  Danieles
  •   10–20%
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  Schillinger
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Coleman
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Diamante
  •   60–70%
  Marrón
  •   20–30%
  •   40–50%
  Freír
  •   20–30%
  •   50–60%

Candidatura libertaria

Los candidatos del Partido Libertario se clasificaron para las elecciones generales del 1 de agosto. [161] [162] [163]

Gobernador

Candidato

Eliminado en votación de la junta

Se retiró

Teniente gobernador

Candidato

Se retiró

Convención verde

Los candidatos del Partido Verde se clasificaron para las elecciones generales del 1 de agosto. [161] [162] [163]

Gobernador

Candidato

Se retiró

Teniente gobernador

Candidato

Nominación de Keystone

Gobernador

Candidato

Se retiró

Teniente gobernador

Candidato

Elecciones generales

Campaña

El fiscal general Josh Shapiro llevó adelante una campaña progresista que hizo hincapié en la protección del derecho al aborto, los derechos de los votantes y el aumento del salario mínimo estatal a 15 dólares la hora. En materia de justicia penal, Shapiro prometió firmar un proyecto de ley que aboliera la pena de muerte, a pesar de haberla apoyado anteriormente, pero también enfrentó críticas de algunos votantes de izquierda por adoptar una imagen de "mano dura contra el crimen". Además, ha tenido un enfrentamiento abierto con el fiscal de distrito de Filadelfia , Larry Krasner . [178]

El senador estatal Doug Mastriano se posicionó como un aliado acérrimo del expresidente Donald Trump, promoviendo teorías conspirativas sobre las elecciones de 2020 , la defensa de los monumentos confederados , [179] armando a los maestros de escuela con armas de fuego, [180] y desobedeciendo los protocolos de seguridad de COVID-19. [181] Mastriano también recibió acusaciones de antisemitismo por usar mensajes antisemitas contra Shapiro. [6] Uno de los partidarios más vocales de Mastriano fue Andrew Torba , el director ejecutivo del sitio web de redes sociales de extrema derecha Gab , un sitio web en el que el autor del tiroteo en la sinagoga del Árbol de la Vida publicó antes de cometer la masacre. Torba donó $ 500 a la campaña de Mastriano, y el propio Mastriano le dijo al fundador de Gab en una entrevista: "Gracias a Dios por lo que has hecho". [182]

No se celebró ningún debate durante las elecciones generales, ya que Shapiro y Mastriano no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo sobre cómo debatir. [183] ​​Además, Mastriano no lanzó sus primeros anuncios para las elecciones generales hasta octubre, mientras que Shapiro, que contaba con más fondos, ya había gastado 18,6 millones de dólares en transmisiones televisivas para ese momento. [184] Estos factores, combinados con la negativa de Mastriano a hablar con los principales medios de comunicación y la decisión de prohibir a los periodistas asistir a los mítines de campaña, limitaron gravemente su alcance a los votantes. [185]

Predicciones

Respaldos

Josh Shapiro (D)
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Senadores estadounidenses
Funcionarios estatales
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Legisladores estatales
Funcionarios locales
Funcionarios del partido
Sindicatos de trabajadores
Organizaciones
Periódicos y otros medios de comunicación
Individuos
Doug Mastriano (derecha)
Presidentes de Estados Unidos
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Funcionarios estatales
Senadores estadounidenses
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Legisladores estatales
Funcionarios locales
Individuos
Organizaciones
Se negó a respaldar
Funcionarios del poder ejecutivo
Senadores estadounidenses
Representantes de Estados Unidos
Funcionarios estatales
Legisladores estatales
Organizaciones
Individuos

Recaudación de fondos

Votación

Encuestas agregadas
Resumen gráfico
Encuesta hipotética
Demócrata genérico vs. republicano genérico

Resultados

Por condado

Por distrito del Congreso

Shapiro ganó 11 de los 17 distritos del Congreso, incluidos dos que eligieron a republicanos. [319]

Análisis

Josh Shapiro derrotó a Doug Mastriano por un 14,8%. Si bien esto marcó un giro republicano del 2,73% con respecto a 2018, todavía fue un 13,18% más grande que la victoria de Joe Biden en la carrera presidencial en Pensilvania dos años antes en 2020, y un 9,86% más grande que la reelección de Shapiro para Fiscal General ese mismo año. Todos los condados en el estado de Keystone votaron exactamente de la misma manera que lo hicieron en 2018, y Shapiro obtuvo mejores resultados en el densamente poblado sureste de Pensilvania , que se compone de Filadelfia y sus suburbios, el condado de Berks ( Reading ), el valle de Lehigh ( Allentown , Bethlehem y Easton ), el valle de Wyoming ( Scranton , Wilkes-Barre y Hazleton ), el valle de Susquehanna ( Harrisburg y Carlisle ), el condado de Erie en la esquina noroeste y, finalmente, el Gran Pittsburgh en el suroeste.

Mientras tanto, Doug Mastriano acumuló grandes márgenes en los condados rurales de Pensilvania, pero también ganó algunos lugares populosos ubicados en la parte occidental del estado, como los condados de Butler , Washington y Westmoreland cerca de Pittsburgh. Sin embargo, Mastriano tuvo un desempeño significativamente inferior a los márgenes del presidente Donald Trump en las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 en algunos de esos condados; el condado de Westmoreland, por ejemplo, votó por Trump por 28 puntos en 2020, pero solo respaldó a Mastriano por 6 puntos en 2022. Un cambio similar hacia la izquierda ocurrió en el vecino condado de Washington, donde Shapiro solo perdió el condado por 2 puntos a pesar de que Joe Biden perdió el condado por más de 20 puntos 2 años antes. Mastriano también ganó Lancaster , incluidos los condados contenidos total o parcialmente dentro de su distrito del Senado estatal , a saber, Adams , Franklin y York . A excepción de los condados de Adams y Franklin, Lancaster y York fueron nuevamente ganados por un solo dígito por el candidato republicano a gobernador, tal como en 2018, ya que las opiniones extremistas de Mastriano probablemente desanimaron a los independientes moderados y a los republicanos en estas áreas. [ cita requerida ]

El sureste de Pensilvania , una zona fuertemente demócrata durante las elecciones, se volvió más demócrata. Esta región, con una Filadelfia fuertemente demócrata, anclada en sus suburbios, se ha convertido en un bastión demócrata en las elecciones, ganando todos los condados del Valle de Delaware. El sureste de Pensilvania acumuló grandes márgenes en sus suburbios. Su electorado es altamente educado, adinerado y diverso. Además de la fuerte inclinación demócrata de la región, los derechos al aborto fueron un tema de campaña importante entre los votantes. Según los datos de la encuesta de CNN, [320] el 62% de los votantes de Pensilvania creían que el aborto debería ser legal, y esos votantes se inclinaron por Shapiro por un margen aplastante del 81%-18%. Los votantes con educación universitaria, que representaban el 41% del electorado, también votaron fuertemente por Shapiro por un margen del 64%-35%. Shapiro ganó el 92% de los votantes negros, el 72% de los votantes latinos y el 50% de los votantes blancos. Según Ron Brownstein de CNN en 2023, Shapiro ganó entre los votantes independientes por márgenes de dos dígitos, lo que contribuyó a la derrota de Mastriano. [321]

Demografía de los votantes

Los datos demográficos de los votantes para 2022 fueron recopilados por CNN . La encuesta de votantes se basa en encuestas de salida realizadas por 2.657 votantes en persona y por teléfono. [320]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Gerow with 4%; Gale with 3%
  4. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart with 2%; Gale and Zama with 1%
  5. ^ Gerow with 3%; Hart, Gale, and "Other" with 1%; Zama with 0%
  6. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale with 3%, Gerow with 2%
  7. ^ Hart with 4%; Gale with 2%; Gerow, Zama, and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Hart and Zama with 2%; Gale and Gerow with 1%
  9. ^ Hart with 4%, Gale and Zama with 2%, Gerow with 1%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 7%, Gale and Hart with 3%, Gerow with 1%, Zama with 0%
  11. ^ Gale, Gerow, and Hart with 3%; Zama with 2%
  12. ^ Gale and Hart with 3%; Gerow with 2%; Zama with 0%
  13. ^ Zama and "Other" (volunteered response) with 1%
  14. ^ Gale with 3%; Richley with 1%
  15. ^ "None/other" with 4%; Gale and Richey with 1%; Ciarrocchi, Gerow, Laughlin, and Zama with 0%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 10%; "Other" with 7%
  17. ^ Meuser with 3%, Cawley with 2%, "None/other" with 1%; Gale and Richey with 1%
  18. ^ a b Withdrew after deadline, remained on ballot
  19. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "All others" with 2%
  22. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 1%
  24. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  25. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Refuse" with <1%
  26. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  27. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) with 2%; Soloski (K) with <1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  28. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with 1%; DiGuilio (G) with <1%
  29. ^ "Other" with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  30. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%, Soloski (K) with 1%, Digiulio (G) with 1%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  32. ^ "Neither/Other" with 2%
  33. ^ "someone else" with 2%
  34. ^ Hackenburg (L) with <1%; Digiulio (G) with <1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  35. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 3%, "someone else" with 1%
  36. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  37. ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%
  38. ^ DiGuilo (G), Hackenburg (L) and Soloski (K) with 1%
  39. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  40. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  41. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  43. ^ "Other" with 1%
  44. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  45. ^ DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) with <1%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  47. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  48. ^ "Another party's candidate" with <1%
  49. ^ "Neither/Other" with 1%
  50. ^ Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 2%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  52. ^ Hackenburg (L) with 2%; DiGiulio (G) and "Some other candidate" with 1%; Soloski (K) with 0%
  53. ^ Hackenburg (L) and "Other" with 1%
  54. ^ DiGuilo (G) and Hackenburg (L) with 1%; Soloski (K) and "someone else" with <1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire.
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Mastriano.
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project.
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by EDF Action and NRDC Action Fund.

References

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  3. ^ Smith, Allan (May 17, 2022). "Far-right election denier Mastriano wins GOP race for governor in Pennsylvania". NBC News. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
  4. ^ Dunklau, Sam (May 17, 2022). "A far-right election denier wins GOP governor primary in swing state of Pennsylvania". NPR. Retrieved May 19, 2022.
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External links

Official campaign websites for gubernatorial candidates
Official campaign websites for lieutenant gubernatorial candidates