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Elecciones generales de la India de 2019

Las elecciones generales se celebraron en la India en siete fases del 11 de abril al 19 de mayo de 2019 para elegir a los miembros de la 17ª Lok Sabha . Los votos se contaron y el resultado se declaró el 23 de mayo. [1] [2] [3] [4] Alrededor de 912 millones de personas estaban habilitadas para votar, y la participación de los votantes fue superior al 67 por ciento, la más alta de la historia, así como la mayor participación de mujeres votantes hasta las elecciones generales indias de 2024. [ 5] [6] [7] [c]

El Partido Bharatiya Janata recibió el 37% de los votos, la mayor proporción de votos de un partido político desde las elecciones generales de 1989 , y ganó 303 escaños, aumentando aún más su mayoría sustancial. [9] Además, la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA) liderada por el BJP ganó 353 escaños. [10] El BJP ganó el 37,76% [11] de los votos, mientras que el voto combinado de la NDA fue del 45% de los 603,7 millones de votos que se emitieron. [12] [13] El Congreso Nacional Indio ganó 52 escaños, sin conseguir el 10% de los escaños necesarios para reclamar el puesto de Líder de la Oposición . [14] Además, la Alianza Progresista Unida (UPA) liderada por el Congreso ganó 91 escaños, mientras que otros partidos ganaron 98 escaños. [15]

Las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa en los estados de Andhra Pradesh , Arunachal Pradesh , Odisha y Sikkim se celebraron simultáneamente con las elecciones generales, [16] [17] así como elecciones parciales de veintidós escaños de la Asamblea Legislativa de Tamil Nadu. [18]

Sistema electoral

Los 543 diputados electos son elegidos en distritos electorales uninominales mediante el sistema de votación mayoritaria . El Presidente de la India designa a dos miembros adicionales de la comunidad angloindia si considera que dicha comunidad está subrepresentada. [19]

Los electores elegibles deben ser ciudadanos indios, mayores de 18 años, residentes ordinarios del área de votación del distrito electoral y registrados para votar (nombre incluido en las listas electorales), poseer una tarjeta de identificación de votante válida emitida por la Comisión Electoral de la India o equivalente. [20] A algunas personas condenadas por delitos electorales o de otro tipo se les prohíbe votar. [21]

Las elecciones se celebran según lo previsto y de conformidad con la Constitución de la India, que establece la celebración de elecciones parlamentarias una vez cada cinco años. [22]

Calendario electoral

Fechas de las elecciones generales de la India de 2019
Calendario electoral

La Comisión Electoral de la India (ECI) anunció el calendario electoral el 10 de marzo de 2019, y con él entró en vigor el Código Modelo de Conducta . [23] [24]

Las elecciones se habían programado para celebrarse en siete fases. En Bihar, Uttar Pradesh y Bengala Occidental, las elecciones se celebraron en las siete fases. La votación para el distrito electoral de Anantnag en el estado de Jammu y Cachemira se celebró en tres fases, debido a la violencia en la región. [25] [26]

  1. ^ abc La votación en Anantnag estaba prevista para tres días.
  2. ^ ab La votación en Vellore fue cancelada y las elecciones se celebraron posteriormente el 5 de agosto de 2019. (ver más abajo)
  3. ^ Las elecciones en Tripura Este se reprogramaron del 18 al 23 de abril.

Votaciones reprogramadas, cancelaciones

Campaña

Asuntos

Denuncias de debilitamiento de las instituciones

Los partidos de oposición acusaron al gobierno de la NDA de destruir las instituciones y los procesos democráticos. [31] Modi negó estas acusaciones y culpó al Congreso y a los comunistas de socavar instituciones como la policía, la CBI y la CAG, y citó el asesinato de activistas del BJP en Kerala y Madhya Pradesh. [32] El partido del Congreso, junto con otros partidos de oposición y un grupo de funcionarios públicos jubilados, acusó a la ECI de estar comprometida e insinuó que respaldaban las violaciones del código modelo de conducta por parte de Narendra Modi y otros líderes políticos del BJP durante sus campañas. [33] [ verificación requerida ] Otro grupo de 81 funcionarios públicos jubilados, jueces y académicos cuestionaron estas acusaciones, formularon contraacusaciones y afirmaron que la ECI actuó de manera justa y similar en las supuestas violaciones de ambos lados. El grupo afirmó que tales ataques políticos a la ECI eran un "intento deliberado de denigrar y deslegitimar las instituciones democráticas". [34] [ verificación requerida ]

Desempeño económico

Según The Times of India , los principales logros económicos del actual gobierno de la NDA incluyeron una tasa de inflación inferior al 4 por ciento, la reforma del GST y el Código de Insolvencia y Quiebra . Sus programas, en los últimos años, que han afectado positivamente a muchas personas de la población india, incluyen el Jan Dhan Yojana , gas para cocinar en zonas rurales y electricidad para los hogares. [35] Según el FMI , la economía india ha estado creciendo en los últimos años, su tasa de crecimiento del PIB se encuentra entre las más altas del mundo entre las principales economías y se espera que la India sea la economía principal de más rápido crecimiento en 2019-2020 y 2020-2021, con un PIB real proyectado que crecerá un 7,3 por ciento. [36] [37] [38] Los datos de crecimiento del PIB han sido cuestionados [35] por un grupo de científicos sociales, economistas y la campaña electoral de la oposición política de la India, mientras que un grupo de contadores públicos indios ha defendido los datos, la metodología de cálculo del PIB y ha cuestionado las motivaciones de quienes cuestionan las recientes estadísticas del PIB de la India. [39]

La campaña electoral de la oposición ha afirmado que tanto la desmonetización como la ley GST han "afectado gravemente a las pequeñas empresas, los agricultores y los trabajadores eventuales", afirma The Times of India . [35] [40] El titular ha afirmado que heredó un país del anterior gobierno liderado por el Congreso que era "un legado de parálisis política, corrupción y fragilidad económica", y que las políticas gubernamentales lideradas por el BJP han colocado a la India en mejores fundamentos económicos y una marcha rápida. [41] Modi afirma que su gobierno persiguió la desmonetización en interés nacional, su gobierno ha identificado y desregistrado 338.000 empresas fantasma, identificado y recuperado 130.000 millones de rupias (US$ 16 mil millones) en dinero negro desde 2014, y casi duplicado la base impositiva de la India. [42] [43] El partido del Congreso cuestiona las afirmaciones de los actuales gobernantes y ha alegado que las oficinas del BJP se han "convertido en centros de creación de dinero negro", y busca una investigación judicial sobre el acuerdo Rafale con Francia y el papel del BJP en la corrupción. [44]

Seguridad nacional y terrorismo

En respuesta al ataque de Pulwama de 2019 , la Fuerza Aérea de la India llevó a cabo ataques aéreos dentro de Pakistán , por primera vez desde la guerra indo-paquistaní de 1971. El conflicto en curso con Pakistán se convirtió en un factor importante en las elecciones. Los partidos de la oposición acusaron al ejército de politizarlo, mientras que el BJP contrarrestó sus acusaciones afirmando que esas acusaciones estaban afectando negativamente la moral de las fuerzas armadas. [45]

Según el Pew Research Center , tanto antes como después del estallido de las recientes tensiones entre India y Pakistán, sus encuestas de 2018 y 2019 sugieren que la gran mayoría de los votantes considera a Pakistán como una "amenaza muy grave" para su país y al terrorismo como un "problema muy grande". [46] [47]

Desempleo

Según el Pew Research Center , la mayoría de los votantes indios considera que la falta de oportunidades de empleo es un "problema muy grave" en su país. "Alrededor de 18,6 millones de indios estaban desempleados y otros 393,7 millones trabajaban en empleos de mala calidad y eran vulnerables al despido", afirma el informe de Pew. [47]

El gobierno no ha publicado oficialmente un informe sobre el desempleo preparado por la encuesta periódica de la fuerza laboral de la Oficina Nacional de Encuestas por Muestreo (NSSO). Según Business Today , este informe es la "primera encuesta integral sobre empleo realizada por una agencia gubernamental después de que el Primer Ministro Narendra Modi anunciara la medida de desmonetización en noviembre de 2016". Según este informe, la tasa de desempleo de "estatus habitual" [d] en la India en 2017-2018 es del 6,1 por ciento, lo que supone el nivel más alto en cuatro décadas. [48] [d] El gobierno ha afirmado que el informe no era definitivo. [53] Según la Organización Internacional del Trabajo (OIT), una agencia de las Naciones Unidas, el desempleo está aumentando en la India y la "tasa de desempleo en el país [India] se situará en el 3,5 por ciento en 2018 y 2019, el mismo nivel de desempleo observado en 2017 y 2016", en lugar de caer al 3,4 por ciento como se había proyectado anteriormente. [54] Según el Informe sobre las Perspectivas Sociales del Empleo en el Mundo de la OIT, la tasa de desempleo en la India ha estado en el rango del 3,4 al 3,6 por ciento durante el período liderado por la UPA y el gobierno de 2009 a 2014 y el período liderado por la NDA y el gobierno de 2014 a 2019. [54]

Los partidos de oposición afirmaron en su campaña electoral que el desempleo en la India había alcanzado niveles críticos. El gobierno de la NDA ha negado la existencia de una crisis laboral. [55] El Primer Ministro Narendra Modi afirmó que no faltan puestos de trabajo, pero que se carece de datos precisos sobre el empleo. [56] [57]

La oposición ha atacado el desempeño del gobierno de la NDA con los datos de desempleo del 6,1% informados por la NSSO. Modi y su gobierno han cuestionado este informe de estadísticas laborales, afirmando que "la mayoría de las encuestas que intentan captar la tasa de desempleo están sesgadas, ya que no cubren el sector no organizado, que representa el 85-90% de los empleos [en la India]". [58]

La miseria agraria y rural

La campaña del Partido del Congreso destacó la "penuria agraria" como un problema electoral. [59] La campaña del BJP destacó que el Partido del Congreso había estado en el poder durante cinco generaciones de la dinastía Nehru y que sus promesas pasadas y sus temas de campaña habían sido vanos. Afirmó que las recientes condonaciones de préstamos a los agricultores por parte del Congreso no han llegado "ni siquiera al 10% de los agricultores" ni han ayudado a la situación financiera de los agricultores. El BJP destaca que su "Kisan Samman Nidhi" ayuda a los pequeños agricultores en el momento de la plantación de semillas mediante un depósito directo de ₹6000 en sus cuentas. [60] La oposición acusó a esto de ser un intento de atraer a los votantes. [61]

Según The Times of India , un grupo de asociaciones de agricultores exigió que el manifiesto electoral de 2019 de los partidos políticos en competencia prometiera "mantener la agricultura fuera de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC)" y que los intereses de los agricultores indios no se vieran comprometidos en los tratados comerciales globales. [62] También exigieron condonaciones de préstamos y apoyo a los ingresos para el sector agrícola. [62] Según Business Standard y la Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura , India ha sido testigo de cosechas récord en los últimos años, incluido 2017, cuando sus agricultores cultivaron más cereales alimentarios que nunca. [63] [64] Sin embargo, los agricultores consideran que los "bajos precios remunerativos" que reciben en el mercado libre son demasiado bajos y es necesario que el gobierno indio establezca precios mínimos de apoyo más altos para los productos agrícolas. Estos agricultores consideran que esto es un problema para las elecciones generales de 2019. [63]

Política dinástica

El BJP destacó que el partido del Congreso ha dependido de Rahul Gandhi para el liderazgo desde 2013, su falta de instituciones internas del partido y afirmó que siempre que el Congreso ha estado en el poder, la libertad de prensa y las instituciones del gobierno indio han "recibido una paliza severa". [65] [66] Durante la campaña electoral, sus líderes mencionaron la Emergencia de 1975, el nepotismo, la corrupción y los abusos generalizados de los derechos humanos bajo el gobierno del Congreso en el pasado. [65] [67] [68] El líder de la alianza liderada por el Congreso, HD Kumaraswamy , hijo de un ex primer ministro de la India y ex ministro principal de Karnataka, respondió que "la India se desarrolló debido a la política dinástica", afirmando que "la política dinástica no es el problema principal, sino más bien los problemas del país". [69] El Congreso alegó hipocresía por parte del BJP, afirmando que el propio BJP forma alianzas con partidos basados ​​en dinastías como el Akali Dal en Punjab, y que parientes de líderes importantes del BJP como Rajnath Singh y Arun Jaitley también han estado en política. [70]

Según un informe de IndiaSpend publicado por BloombergQuint, los partidos más pequeños y regionales, como la Conferencia Nacional de Jammu y Cachemira, el Partido Lok Jan Sakti, el Shiromani Akali Dal, el Biju Janata Dal y el Partido Samajwadi, han tenido una mayor densidad de candidatos y representantes electos derivados de dinastías políticas en los últimos años. [71] [72] Si bien tanto el Congreso como el BJP también han nominado candidatos de dinastías políticas, afirma el informe, la diferencia entre ellos es que en el Congreso "la alta dirección del partido se ha transmitido de generación en generación dentro de la misma familia [de la dinastía Nehru Gandhi]", mientras que ha habido una diversidad histórica no dinástica en la alta dirección dentro del BJP. Según el informe, si bien el BJP también ha nominado candidatos de dinastías políticas, su mejor operación de relaciones públicas "puede salir en su defensa cuando se lo ataca por los mismos motivos". [71] En contraste con el informe de IndiaSpend, el análisis de Kanchan Chandra , un destacado profesor de Política, de las elecciones generales de 2004, 2009 y 2014 incluyó un hallazgo de que el Partido del Congreso ha tenido aproximadamente el doble o más de parlamentarios dinásticos que el BJP en esas elecciones, y más que todos los principales partidos políticos de la India, excepto el Partido Samajwadi. [73] [e] Muchos de estos políticos dinásticos de la India que heredan los puestos de liderazgo nunca han tenido ningún trabajo y carecen de experiencia estatal o local, afirma Anjali Bohlken, profesora y académica de ciencias políticas, y esto plantea preocupaciones de nepotismo desenfrenado y nombramientos de sus propios amigos, parientes y compinches si son elegidos. [74] El BJP atacó al Partido del Congreso en las elecciones de 2019 por presunto nepotismo y una dinastía familiar para el liderazgo. [65] [71]

Controversias de campaña

Redadas en el impuesto sobre la renta

En abril de 2019, las redadas realizadas por el Departamento de Impuestos sobre la Renta encontraron fajos de dinero en efectivo no contabilizado por un valor de 281 millones de rupias (34 millones de dólares estadounidenses), junto con licor y pruebas documentales en las instalaciones de personas con estrechos vínculos con el ministro jefe de Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath, del Congreso. Modi ha destacado esta evidencia para atacar al Congreso en su campaña electoral, alegando que la corrupción es parte de la cultura del partido del Congreso. [75] [76]

Abusos en las redes sociales y noticias falsas

Según The New York Times y The Wall Street Journal , la elección atrajo un intento sistemático de difundir desinformación a través de las redes sociales. [77] [78] Facebook dijo que más de cien de estas cuentas de defensa que difundían desinformación fueron rastreadas hasta "empleados del ala de relaciones públicas del ejército paquistaní ". [77] [78] Algunas otras han sido vinculadas al INC y al BJP. [77] [78]

Los partidos políticos gastaron más de 53 crore (US$ 6,4 millones) y el mayor gasto lo realizó el BJP en plataformas digitales para anuncios en línea. El BJP colocó 2500 anuncios en Facebook, mientras que el Congreso colocó 3686 anuncios. [79] Según un estudio de Vidya Narayanan y colegas del Oxford Internet Institute , todos los partidos y alianzas principales utilizaron las redes sociales, y todos ellos vincularon o publicaron contenido e imágenes divisivos y conspirativos. Según Narayanan, "un tercio de las imágenes del BJP, una cuarta parte de las imágenes del INC y una décima parte de las imágenes del SP-BSP fueron catalogadas como divisivas y conspirativas". [80] [81] El estudio de Narayanan et al. El estudio agregó que "observamos cantidades muy limitadas de discurso de odio, sangre o pornografía en las muestras de ambas plataformas" por parte del BJP, el Congreso o el SP-BSP, pero las elecciones incluyeron información proporcionalmente más polarizadora en las redes sociales que otros países, a excepción de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos en 2016. [81]

Según un estudio realizado por la startup de verificación de datos Logically, durante las recientes elecciones de Lok Sabha se publicaron alrededor de 50.000 noticias falsas y se compartieron 2 millones de veces. [82]

En septiembre de 2019, la BBC lanzó la Trusted News Initiative para ayudar a combatir la desinformación relacionada con las elecciones, citando las elecciones generales de 2019 como un factor motivador. [83]

Acciones de la CE en virtud del artículo 324

La Comisión Electoral redujo la campaña en Bengala Occidental por un día, después de que un busto del ícono bengalí del siglo XIX Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar fuera vandalizado durante la violencia de la séptima fase de las elecciones. [84]

Campañas de partidos

Manifiestos de partidos

Puntos destacados del manifiesto del Congreso

El Congreso publicó su manifiesto, titulado El Congreso cumplirá, el 3 de abril. [93] [94] Algunos de sus puntos destacados: [93] [95] [96]

Puntos destacados del manifiesto del BJP

El BJP publicó su manifiesto subtitulado Sankalpit Bharat, Sashakt Bharat ( lit. "India resuelta, India empoderada") el 8 de abril. [97] [98] Algunos de sus puntos destacados: [96] [98] [99]

Otras fiestas

Otros partidos nacionales y regionales también publicaron sus manifiestos:

Financiación de campañas

Varias organizaciones ofrecieron estimaciones variadas sobre el costo de la campaña electoral. El Centro de Estudios de Medios de Nueva Delhi estimó que la campaña electoral podría superar los 7 mil millones de dólares. [114] Según la Asociación para las Reformas Democráticas (ADR), un organismo de control electoral, en el año fiscal 2017-18 el BJP recibió 4.370.000.000 de rupias (52 millones de dólares estadounidenses), aproximadamente 12 veces más donaciones que el Congreso y otros cinco partidos nacionales juntos. [114]

Los bonos electorales en denominaciones que van desde 1.000 rupias hasta 10 millones de rupias (14 a 140.000 dólares) se pueden comprar y donar a un partido político. Los bonos no llevan el nombre del donante y están exentos de impuestos. [115] [f] Factly, un portal de periodismo de datos de la India, rastreó las donaciones de bonos electorales para 2018 bajo la Ley de Derecho a la Información de la India. Según Factly, se compraron y donaron bonos electorales por un valor de aproximadamente 10.600.000.000 de rupias (130 millones de dólares estadounidenses) en 2018. Según Bloomberg, esto representó el 31,2 por ciento de las donaciones políticas en 2018, mientras que el 51,4 por ciento del monto total donado fue inferior a 20.000 rupias (240 dólares estadounidenses) y estos también fueron de donantes desconocidos. Alrededor del 47 por ciento de las donaciones a los partidos políticos provinieron de fuentes conocidas. [115] Entre el 1 de enero y el 31 de marzo de 2019, los donantes compraron bonos electorales por valor de 17.100.000.000 (US$ 200 millones) y donaron. [119] El gasto en las elecciones impulsa el PIB nacional, y el gasto electoral de 2009 contribuyó con aproximadamente el 0,5 por ciento al PIB. [120]

Según el Centro de Estudios de Medios, el BJP gastó más de 280 mil millones de rupias (o el 45%) de los 600 mil millones de rupias gastados por todos los partidos políticos durante las elecciones. [121] El Congreso cuestionó al BJP por su gasto electoral. [122]

Partidos y alianzas

Alianzas políticas

Con la excepción de 2014, ningún partido ha ganado la mayoría de los escaños en la Lok Sabha desde 1984 y, por lo tanto, formar alianzas es la norma en las elecciones indias.

Antes de las elecciones, había tres alianzas nacionales principales: la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA), encabezada por el BJP, la Alianza Progresista Unida (UPA), encabezada por el INC, y el Frente de Izquierda, formado por partidos de tendencia comunista.

El INC no formó alianzas en los estados en los que competía directamente con el BJP, como Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh y Chhattisgarh. Formó alianzas con partidos regionales en Jammu y Cachemira, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Jharkhand y Kerala. [123]

Los partidos de izquierda, en particular el Partido Comunista de la India (Marxista), compitieron por su cuenta en sus bastiones de Bengala Occidental , Tripura y Kerala , enfrentándose tanto a la NDA como a la UPA. En Tamil Nadu, formó parte de la Alianza Progresista Secular liderada por el DMK, mientras que en Andhra Pradesh estuvo aliado con el Partido Jana Sena . [124]

En enero de 2019, el Partido Bahujan Samaj y el Partido Samajwadi anunciaron una gran alianza ( Mahagathbandhan ) para disputar 76 de los 80 escaños en Uttar Pradesh , dejando dos escaños, a saber, Amethi y Rae Bareli , para el INC y otros dos para otros partidos políticos. [125]

Partidos políticos

En estas elecciones participaron más de 650 partidos, la mayoría de ellos pequeños y con un gran atractivo regional. Los principales partidos fueron el Partido Bharatiya Janata (BJP), el Congreso Nacional Indio (INC) y el Partido Comunista de la India (Marxista) (CPI(M)). Esta fue la primera vez que el BJP (437) compitió por más escaños que el Congreso (421) en las elecciones de Lok Sabha. [126] [127]

Candidatos

En total, había 8.039 candidatos en liza por 542 distritos electorales parlamentarios, es decir, 14,8 candidatos por distrito en promedio, según PRS India, una ONG. [128]

Según el análisis de la Asociación de Reformas Democráticas, alrededor del 40% de los candidatos presentados por el Partido Bharatiya Janata tenían antecedentes penales. El principal partido de oposición, el Congreso Nacional Indio, no se quedó atrás: el 39% de los candidatos tenían antecedentes penales, mientras que en el caso de algunos partidos políticos la proporción superaba el 50%. [129]

Voter statistics

According to the ECI, 900 million people were eligible to vote, with an increase of 84.3 million voters since the last election in 2014,[130][131] making it the largest-ever election in the world.[132] 15 million voters aged 18–19 years became eligible to vote for the first time.[133][134] 468 million eligible voters were males, 432 million were females and 38,325 identified themselves belonging to third gender. Total 71,735 overseas voters also enrolled.[citation needed]

The residents of the former enclaves exchanged under the 2015 India-Bangladesh boundary agreement voted for the first time.[135]

Electronic voting machines and security

The ECI deployed a total of 1.74 million voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) units and 3.96 million electronic voting machines (EVM) in 1,035,918 polling stations.[136][137][138][139] Approximately 270,000 paramilitary and 2 million state police personnel provided organisational support and security at various polling booths.[140] On 9 April 2019, the Supreme Court ordered the ECI to increase VVPAT slips vote count to five randomly selected EVMs per assembly constituency, which meant that the ECI had to count VVPAT slips of 20,625 EVMs before it could certify the final election results.[141][142][143]

Voting

In the first phase, 69.58 per cent of the 142 million eligible voters cast their vote to elect their representatives for 91 Lok Sabha seats.[144] The voter turnout was 68.77 per cent in the same constituencies in the 2014 general elections.[144] In the second phase, 156 million voters were eligible to vote for 95 Lok Sabha seats and the turnout was 69.45 per cent, compared to 69.62 per cent in 2014.[144] For the third phase, 189 million voters were eligible to elect 116 Lok Sabha representatives.[144] According to ECI, the turnout for this phase was 68.40 per cent, compared to 67.15 per cent in 2014.[144] In the fourth of seven phases, 65.50 per cent of the 128 million eligible voters cast their vote to elect 72 representatives to the Indian parliament while the turnout for the same seats in the 2014 election was 63.05 per cent.[144] The fifth phase was open to 87.5 million eligible voters, who could cast their vote in over 96,000 polling booths.[145] In the sixth phase, 64.40 per cent of the 101 million eligible voters cast their vote in about 113,000 polling stations.[146]

Turnout

The final turnout stood at 67.11 per cent, the highest ever turnout recorded in any of the general elections till date. The percentage is 1.16 per cent higher than the 2014 elections whose turnout stood at 65.95 per cent.[147] Over 600 million voters polled their votes in 2019 Indian General elections.

Phase-wise voter turnout details

State/UT-wise voter turnout details

Surveys and polls

Opinion polls

Number of seats projected in opinion polls per alliance over time.
Indian General Election Trends - 2019

Various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in India. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held in April and May 2014, to the present day. The ECI banned the release of exit polls from 11 April to 19 May, the last phase of the elections.[148] The commission also banned the publication or broadcast in the media of predictions made by astrologers and tarot card readers.[149]

Exit polls

Results

A cartogram showing the popular vote in each constituency.

Seat share of parties in the election

  BJP (55.80%)
  INC (9.57%)
  DMK (4.41%)
  AITC (4.05%)
  YSRCP (4.05%)
  SS (3.31%)
  JD(U) (2.95%)
  BJD (2.21%)
  BSP (1.84%)
  TRS (1.66%)
  Other (10.15%)

Vote share of parties in the election

  BJP (37.7%)
  INC (19.67%)
  AITC (4.1%)
  BSP (3.66%)
  SP (2.55%)
  YSRCP (2.53%)
  DMK (2.26%)
  SS (2.10%)
  TDP (2.04%)
  CPI(M) (1.77%)
  Other (21.62%)

Aftermath

Reactions

National

Indian National Congress party leaders such as Rahul Gandhi and others conceded defeat and congratulated Modi and his party.[179] Other opposition parties and political leaders such as Sharad Pawar,[180] Mamata Banerjee and Omar Abdullah,[181] congratulated PM Modi and BJP for their victory.

On 20 November 2019 the Association for Democratic Reforms filed a petition with the Supreme Court of India over alleged ballot-counting discrepancies in the Lok Sabha voting and seeking a probe by the ECI.[182]

International

The leaders of Afghanistan, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burundi, Canada, China, Comoros, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lesotho, Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Madagascar, Malaysia, Maldives, Malta, Mexico, Mongolia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Netherlands, Nicaragua, North Korea, Nigeria, New Zealand, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Zambia, and Zimbabwe congratulated Narendra Modi and the BJP on their victory.[183]

Government formation

Swearing-in ceremony

Narendra Modi, parliamentary leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, started his tenure after his oath of office as the 16th Prime Minister of India on 30 May 2019. Several other ministers were also sworn in along with Modi. The ceremony was noted by media for being the first ever oath of office of an Indian Prime Minister to have been attended by the heads of all BIMSTEC countries.

Impact

The benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty50 indices hit intraday record highs and the Indian rupee strengthened after the exit polls and on the day the election results were announced.[185]

Timeline

Electoral timelines are as below:[186]

March 2019

  • 10 March 2019: The Election Commission of India announced election scheduled to the 17th Lok Sabha.[186]
  • 18 March 2019: Issue of notification for the 1st poll day.[186]
  • 19 March 2019: Issue of notification for the 2nd poll day.[186]
  • 25 March 2019: Last date for filing nominations for the 1st poll day.[186]
  • 26 March 2019: Last date for filing nominations for the 2nd poll day.[186]
    • Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 1st poll day.[186]
  • 27 March 2019: Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 2nd poll day.[186]
  • 28 March 2019: Issue of notification for the 3rd poll day.[186]
    • Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 1st poll day.[186]
  • 29 March 2019: Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 2nd poll day.[186]

April 2019

  • 2 April 2019: Issue of notification for the 4th poll day.[186]
  • 3 April 2019: Indian National Congress released their manifesto titled Congress Will Deliver.[188]
  • 4 April 2019: Last date for filing nominations for the 3rd poll day.[186]
  • 5 April 2019: Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 3rd poll day.[186]
  • 8 April 2019: Bharatiya Janata Party released its manifesto titled Sankalpit Bharat, Sashakt Bharat.[189][190]
    • Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 3rd poll day.[186]
  • 9 April 2019: Last date for filing nominations for the 4th poll day.[186]
  • 10 April 2019: Issue of notification for the 5th poll day.[186]
    • Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 4th poll day.[186]
  • 11 April 2019: Polling held at 91 parliamentary constituencies spanning over 20 states for the first poll day.[186]
  • 12 April 2019: Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 4th poll day.[186]
  • 16 April 2019: Issue of notification for the 6th poll day.[186]
  • 18 April 2019: Polling held at 95 parliamentary constituencies spanning over 13 states for the second poll day.[186] (Vellore constituency election cancelled due to illegal cash deposit from Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam candidate.)[citation needed]
    • Last date for filing nominations for the 5th poll day.[186]
  • 20 April 2019: Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 5th poll day.[186]
  • 22 April 2019: Issue of notification for the 7th poll day.[186]
    • Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 5th poll day.[186]
  • 23 April 2019: Polling held at 117 parliamentary constituencies spanning over 14 states for the third poll day.[186]
    • Last date for filing nominations for the 6th poll day.[186]
  • 24 April 2019: Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 6th poll day.[186]
  • 26 April 2019: Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 6th poll day.[186]
  • 29 April 2019: Polling held at 71 parliamentary constituencies spanning over 9 states for the fourth poll day.[186]
    • Last date for filing nominations for the 7th poll day.[186]
  • 30 April 2019: Scrutiny of nominations filed for the 7th poll day.[186]

May 2019

  • 2 May 2019: Last day for withdrawal of candidature filed for the 7th poll day.[186]
  • 6 May 2019: Polling held for 51 parliamentary constituencies in more than 7 states for the fifth polling day.[186]
  • 12 May 2019: Polling held for 59 parliamentary constituencies in more than 7 states the sixth polling day.[186]
  • 19 May 2019: Polling held at 59 parliamentary constituencies in more than 8 states the seventh polling day.[186]
  • 23 May 2019: Counting of votes and declaration of results for all polling days.[186]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The election for the Vellore constituency was delayed and took place on 5 August 2019.
  2. ^ Two seats were reserved for Anglo-Indians and filled through Presidential nomination.
  3. ^ In 9 states and union territories of India – such as Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala and Uttarakhand – more women turned out to vote than men in 2019.[8]
  4. ^ a b The unemployment data in India is not collected on a monthly or an annual basis, rather it is determined through a sample survey once every 5 years, with a few exceptions. The survey methodology is unlike those in major world economies, and sub-classifies unemployment into categories such as "usual status unemployment" and "current status unemployment" based on the answers given by the individuals interviewed. Its methodology and results have been questioned by various scholars.[49][50][51] The report and the refusal of the BJP government to release it has been criticised by economist Surjit Bhalla.[50] According to Bhalla, the survey methodology is flawed and its results absurd, because the sample survey-based report finds that India's overall population has declined since 2011–12 by 1.2 per cent (contrary to the Census data which states a 6.7 per cent increase). The report finds that India's per cent urbanisation and urban workforce has declined since 2012, which is contrary to all other studies on Indian urbanisation trends, states Bhalla.[50] According to NSSO's report's data, "the Modi government has unleashed the most inclusive growth anywhere, and at any time in human history" – which is as unbelievable as the unemployment data it reports, states Bhalla.[50] The NSSO report suggests the inflation-adjusted employment income of casual workers has dramatically increased while those of the salaried wage-earners has fallen during the 5-years of BJP government.[50] The NSSO has also changed the sampling methodology in the latest round, state Bhalla and Avik Sarkar,[52] which is one of the likely sources of its flawed statistics and conclusions.[50]
  5. ^ According to Chandra: in 2009 after the persistently dynastic Samajwadi party, the larger Biju Janata Dal ranked next, followed by the Congress party. In 2004 and 2014, Congress ranked second.[74]
  6. ^ Stanley Kochanek in 1987 published about the "briefcase politics" tradition in Indian politics during the decades when the Congress party dominated Indian national politics.[116] Similarly, Rajeev Gowda and E Sridharan in 2012 have discussed the history of campaign financing laws in India and the role of black money in Indian elections.[117] Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav discuss the rise of "briefcase" black money donations in India triggered by the 1969 campaign financing bans proposed and enacted by Indira Gandhi, and the campaign finance law reforms thereafter through 2017. They call the recent reforms as yielding "greater transparency than ever before, though limited".[118]
  7. ^ Increase/Decrease indicate change from the 2014 elections.
  8. ^ Polling in Anantnag was scheduled over three days.
  9. ^ Tamil Nadu has 39 constituencies. Polling in Vellore was cancelled and later held on 5 August 2019.

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Lectura adicional

Enlaces externos