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2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler.[1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint.[2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes,[3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow

Organizations

Individuals

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

Failed to qualify

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

John James

U.S. President

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State Senators[38][39][40]

State Representatives[38]

Judges

Cabinet-level officials

  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]

Individuals

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)

Individuals

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates.[69]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:
  James
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Pensler
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising

Predictions

Notes
  1. ^ Not yet released, but is Republican primary subsample of full 800 voter sample in Michigan
  2. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

  • Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States[98]
  • Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States[99]

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Organizations

Individuals

John James (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State Senators[38][39][40]

State Representatives[38]

Judges

Cabinet-level officials

  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor[42]

Individuals

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling


Hypothetical polling

with Sandy Pensler

with generic Democrat and Republican

with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)

Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan.[4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election.[152] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Both Stabenow and James won 7 of 14 congressional districts.[154]

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for James' campaign.

References

  1. ^ "John James endorsement from President Donald Trump after primary". Fox News. August 8, 2018.
  2. ^ "Green Party of Michigan Nominating Convention".
  3. ^ "2018 Michigan Official General Election Results - 11/06/2018". mielections.us.
  4. ^ a b "Stabenow defeats James in Michigan's U.S. Senate race". Detroit News.
  5. ^ Demas, Susan J. (October 2, 2015). "Susan J. Demas: Can Republicans finally knock off Debbie Stabenow in 2018?". MLive.com. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  6. ^ Everett, Burgess (November 17, 2016). "Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
  7. ^ Oosting, Jonathan (February 11, 2017). "Michigan Democrats promise 'fight' at record convention". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  8. ^ a b "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
  9. ^ a b c d "Major Environmental Groups Endorse Sen. Debbie Stabenow for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters. May 2, 2018.
  10. ^ a b "MI List Progressive Women in Politics".
  11. ^ a b NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
  12. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". July 16, 2012.
  13. ^ a b Handler, Chelsea [@ChelseaHandler] (July 17, 2018). "Michigan- your primary is August 7. Please vote. Gretchen Driskell (MI-07) @gdriskell Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) @ElissaSlotkin Ellen Lipton (MI-09) @RepLipton Debbie Stabenow (MI-SEN) @stabenow Gretchen Whitmer (MI-GOV) @gretchenwhitmer Jocelyn Benson – (MI-SOS) @JocelynBenson" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2018 – via Twitter.
  14. ^ a b "United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018".
  15. ^ "Metro Detroit businessman John James joins U.S. Senate race".
  16. ^ a b c "2018 Michigan Unofficial Primary Candidate Listing - 08/07/2018". miboecfr.nictusa.com.
  17. ^ "Businessman Sandy Pensler announces U.S. Senate run". November 20, 2017.
  18. ^ Boothe, Daniel. "Michigan Historic Preservationist Bob Carr announces candidacy for US Senate". Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  19. ^ Gray, Kathleen (February 19, 2017). "Michigan GOP sees opening for U.S. Senate bid in 2018". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 21, 2017.
  20. ^ "Ted Nugent Considering Running for U.S. Senate". Ultimate Classic Rock.
  21. ^ McCollum, Brian (October 24, 2017). "Kid Rock: Of course I'm not running for Senate". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved October 24, 2017.
  22. ^ Nann Burke, Melissa (February 1, 2017). "Rep. Upton considers challenge to Sen. Stabenow". The Detroit News. Retrieved February 7, 2017.
  23. ^ "U.S. Rep. Fred Upton opts against Senate run".
  24. ^ "Raczkowski, Epstein enter race to succeed Trott".
  25. ^ "Young drops out of GOP Senate race in Michigan".
  26. ^ a b c "Young endorses James in GOP primary for Senate".
  27. ^ a b Donald J. Trump. ".@JohnJamesMI, who is running in the Republican Primary in the great state of Michigan, is SPECTACULAR! Vote on August 7th. Rarely have I seen a candidate with such great potential. West Point graduate, successful businessman and an African American leader..." Twitter.
  28. ^ a b Donald J. Trump. "...John is strong on crime and borders, loves our Military, our Vets and our Second Amendment. He will be a star. He has my full and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  29. ^ a b Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
  30. ^ a b "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio - John James for Senate". December 5, 2017. Archived from the original on December 7, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
  31. ^ a b "Congressman Jack Bergman Endorses John James". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on August 28, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  32. ^ a b "Mike Bishop Endorses John James for Senate - John James for Senate". November 20, 2017. Archived from the original on December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  33. ^ a b "Huizenga Throws Support to James' US Senate Campaign". WHTC. July 10, 2018. Archived from the original on July 10, 2018. Retrieved July 11, 2018.
  34. ^ a b "Rep. Paul Mitchell Endorses John James for U.S. Senate - John James for Senate". November 7, 2017. Archived from the original on December 8, 2017. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  35. ^ a b "RELEASE: U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar Endorses John James for U.S. Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on October 11, 2018. Retrieved October 11, 2018.
  36. ^ a b West, Allen (October 27, 2017). "I wholeheartedly endorse John James for U.S. Senate in Michigan". Allen B. West website. Archived from the original on May 14, 2018.
  37. ^ a b John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
  38. ^ a b c d "30 Conservative Republicans from the Michigan Legislature Endorse John James for Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved May 30, 2018.
  39. ^ a b c d "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". July 5, 2018. Archived from the original on July 8, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  40. ^ a b "The constituents of my Senate District..." Facebook. July 10, 2018.
  41. ^ a b c d "Michigan Cattlemen's Association, Fmr. Farm Bureau President, Highlight Strong Coalition of Farmers For John James". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on September 19, 2018. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  42. ^ a b "No Excuses". secure.johnjamesforsenate.com.
  43. ^ a b "Dean Cain on Twitter".
  44. ^ a b "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  45. ^ a b "Hugh Hewitt on Twitter". twitter.com.
  46. ^ a b Cavitt, Mark (July 23, 2018). "Ted Nugent endorses John James for U.S. Senate". The Oakland Press.
  47. ^ a b "Conservative Outsider John James Announces Endorsement of American Hero Robert O'Neill - John James for Senate". November 8, 2017. Archived from the original on June 23, 2018. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  48. ^ a b "Sandy Pensler on Twitter". twitter.com.
  49. ^ a b John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
  50. ^ a b Donald Trump Jr. "Excited to see @JohnJamesMI and @SchuetteOnDuty win big tonight in Michigan. They're both great candidates who are #MAGA to the core. #MISEN #MIGOV". Twitter.
  51. ^ a b "Michigan Agricultural Icon Wayne Wood Endorses John James for US Senate". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on September 19, 2018. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  52. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Conservatives Across Michigan Continue To Line Up Behind John James for Senate". Archived from the original on July 8, 2018. Retrieved July 8, 2018.
  53. ^ a b "Over 350 Michigan Veterans Highlight John James Veterans Coalition". John James for Senate. Archived from the original on September 6, 2018. Retrieved September 6, 2018.
  54. ^ a b "John James on Twitter".
  55. ^ a b John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
  56. ^ a b "James Raises $1.17 Million, Quadruples Grassroots Fundraising Base during Q1 - John James for Senate". April 11, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 27, 2018.
  57. ^ a b "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  58. ^ a b "GR Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Endorsements". Grand Rapids Area Chamber of Commerce. June 6, 2018.
  59. ^ a b "Chamber Announces Endorsements for US Senate, AG and Key Congressional Races". Michigan Chamber of Commerce. June 27, 2018. Archived from the original on June 29, 2018. Retrieved June 29, 2018.
  60. ^ a b "John James on Twitter". twitter.com.
  61. ^ a b "John James Emerges as Sole Conservative to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow - John James for Senate". April 25, 2018. Archived from the original on April 28, 2018. Retrieved April 27, 2018.
  62. ^ a b "John James for Senate in Michigan". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 30, 2018.
  63. ^ a b "SBA List Endorses John James for U.S. Senate in MI - Susan B. Anthony List". sba-list.org. June 18, 2018.
  64. ^ a b LeBlanc, Beth (October 10, 2018). "Chamber endorses James for U.S. Senate, criticizes Stabenow's record". The Detroit News.
  65. ^ a b "In GOP Senate primary, John James". The Detroit News. July 19, 2018.
  66. ^ a b "Republicans in Trump Country Unite Behind Sandy Pensler for US Senate". Pensler for Senate. April 9, 2018.
  67. ^ "Sen. Rand Paul endorses Pensler in Michigan GOP Primary". Fox17. July 30, 2018. Retrieved July 31, 2018.
  68. ^ "Bob Young, Jr". facebook.com.
  69. ^ "Pro-life record, support of Trump tackled in Michigan GOP U.S. Senate debate". mlive.com. July 6, 2018.
  70. ^ Mitchell Research
  71. ^ EPIC-MRA
  72. ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine
  73. ^ a b c Marist College
  74. ^ National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC)
  75. ^ Target-Insyght
  76. ^ Strategic National (R)
  77. ^ Strategic National (R)
  78. ^ Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) Archived July 14, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  79. ^ Strategic National (R)
  80. ^ Strategic National (R)
  81. ^ Denno Research
  82. ^ Strategic National (R)
  83. ^ Strategic National (R)
  84. ^ Target-Insyght
  85. ^ Zogby Analytics
  86. ^ a b Trafalgar Group (R)
  87. ^ Target-Insyght
  88. ^ "Mich. House OKs dead lawmaker's bill in vote of unity".
  89. ^ Cwiek, Sarah (August 31, 2017). "Green Party candidates jump in race for Michigan governor, U.S. Senator". Michigan Radio. Retrieved October 27, 2017.
  90. ^ motownbelle (October 20, 2017). "Why I Suspended My Senatorial Campaign" – via YouTube.
  91. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved September 24, 2018.
  92. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  93. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  94. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 4, 2018.
  95. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  96. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  97. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  98. ^ Joe Biden. "This Thursday evening I'll be in Lansing, Michigan to support @ElissaSlotkin, Debbie @Stabenow, @GretchenWhitmer and @Garlin". Twitter.
  99. ^ Debbie Stabenow. "Thanks @BarackObama! #MiSen #MadeInMichigan". Twitter.
  100. ^ Gary Peters. "I can't think of anyone who works harder or cares more deeply about her state than @Stabenow. I would know: I've seen her focus, hard-work & effectiveness up close in the Senate. I can't wait to vote for my good friend. Read about why I'm supporting her". Twitter.
  101. ^ Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
  102. ^ Dan Kildee. "We deserve leaders who understand that a strong middle class means a strong country. We deserve leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare and expand access to affordable health care. That's why we deserve @GretchenWhitmer, @Stabenow & Democrats up and down the ballot". Twitter.
  103. ^ Brenda Lawrence. "Attended four churches in Pontiac today with our United States Senator Debbie @Stabenow, my mentor and dear friend. I am so excited to vote for her November 6th and I hope you join me! #TeamBrenda #PrayersUp @TeamStabenow". Twitter.
  104. ^ "Debbie Stabenow – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  105. ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  106. ^ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". July 16, 2012.
  107. ^ "Michigan – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  108. ^ Rudy Giuliani. "Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He's the future of our party. Let's make that future now.. Vote for Don James". Twitter.
  109. ^ Rudy Giuliani. "Sorry for the mistake with JOHN JAMES first name but you'd be making one if you don't elect him to Senate from Michigan.The tweet was not planned but spontaneous.I saw his interview and record-military, business-and said this is a true leader,not the same old. He's exceptional". Twitter.
  110. ^ Levin, Mark R. (October 30, 2018). "John James for Senate in Michigan".
  111. ^ Peterson, Jordan B. (October 11, 2018). "I met John James in New York and he is one impressive character: a truly powerful, direct speaker @JohnJamesMI".
  112. ^ "ACU Endorses John James". American Conservative Union. March 22, 2018. Archived from the original on March 27, 2018. Retrieved March 26, 2018.
  113. ^ "James the right choice for Senate". Daily Press. October 29, 2018.
  114. ^ "James would bring fresh perspective to Senate for Michigan". Iron Mountain Daily News. October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.
  115. ^ Mitchell Research
  116. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  117. ^ Mitchell Research
  118. ^ Change Research
  119. ^ George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  120. ^ Research Co.
  121. ^ Gravis Marketing
  122. ^ Glengariff Group
  123. ^ George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
  124. ^ Emerson College
  125. ^ Mitchell Research
  126. ^ Target-Insyght Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine
  127. ^ Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
  128. ^ EPIC-MRA
  129. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  130. ^ Michigan State University
  131. ^ Marketing Resource Group Archived 2018-10-24 at the Wayback Machine
  132. ^ Mitchell Research
  133. ^ Glengariff Group Archived October 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  134. ^ EPIC-MRA Archived 2018-09-28 at the Wayback Machine
  135. ^ Ipsos
  136. ^ Target-Insyght [permanent dead link]
  137. ^ Mitchell Research
  138. ^ Strategic National (R)
  139. ^ Glengariff Group
  140. ^ Gravis Marketing
  141. ^ Strategic National (R)
  142. ^ The Tarrance Group (R)
  143. ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine
  144. ^ a b SurveyMonkey/Axios
  145. ^ a b Glengariff Group
  146. ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine
  147. ^ SurveyMonkey/Axios
  148. ^ Mitchell/Rosetta Stone
  149. ^ Zogby Analytics
  150. ^ Marketing Resource Group Archived September 21, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  151. ^ Target-Insyght [permanent dead link]
  152. ^ Weigel, David (November 1, 2018). "The Trailer: Why Michigan's Senate candidate is asking Trump for an election eve visit". Fred Ryan. Retrieved April 15, 2019.
  153. ^ "2018 Michigan general election results". Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  154. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.

External links

Official campaign websites