Prior to the election, most news organizations projected this race as "Lean Republican", and was not expected to be as competitive as the contest for Texas's other Senate seat two years prior, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 2.6% margin. Nonetheless, John Cornyn won in what was his worst performance out of his four elections for the U.S. Senate, while MJ Hegar's 43.9% marked the highest vote share of any of Cornyn's Democratic challengers. Despite this being Cornyn’s worst performance percentage-wise, he more than doubled his 2014 vote count and received the most raw votes for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the history of the United States.
Cornyn outperformed President Donald Trumpin the state by about 4%, and was able to carry two counties won by Joe Biden (Tarrant and Williamson). While Cornyn did better than Trump in the Texas Triangle, contributing to his over performance, Hegar slightly outperformed Biden in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, and was able to carry one Trump county (Zapata), though Hegar herself vastly underperformed previous Democratic margins in the region.
Tammy Duckworth, U.S. senator from Illinois and former U.S. Representative (IL-08) (2013–2017) and U.S. Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs (2009–2011)[38]
Kerry McKennon, Libertarian nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Texas in 2018[79][80]
Withdrawn
Wes Benedict, former national Executive Director of the Libertarian Party[81]
Rhett Rosenquest Smith, Libertarian nominee for the Precinct 2 Bexar County Justice of the Peace in 2020 and Libertarian nominee for Texas's 11th congressional district in 2018[82]
Green Party
Nominee
David B. Collins, info tech trainer and Green nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[83][84]
People Over Politics Party
Withdrawn
Cedric Jefferson[83][84]
Human Rights Party
Withdrawn
James Brumley[83][84]
Independents
Declared
Ricardo Turullols-Bonilla, retired teacher and candidate for Austin city council in 2014 (as a write-in candidate)[85][84]
Withdrawn
Tim Smith[83][84]
Arjun Srinivasan[83][84]
Krisjiannis Vittato, teacher and ex-filmmaker[86][84]
^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
^Giffords endorsed Hegar to this poll's sampling period
^Poll sponsored for The Consumer Energy Alliance which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
^Poll conducted for the Texas Youth Power Alliance.
^Poll conducted for Latino Decisions.
^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
^Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
Additional candidates and voter samples
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m nKey: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^Michael Cooper with 4%; "other" with 1%
^ a bAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^The five remaining candidates or "someone else" with 34%; refused with 6%
^Michael Cooper, Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and Victor Hugo Harris with 3%; D. R. Hunter with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%
^Michael Cooper with 2%; Victor Hugo Harris and Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr., D. R. Hunter, and "not voting" with 0%
^Leaning towards no one candidate, but not leaning towards not voting
^Michael Cooper and Victor Hugo Harris with 5%; Adrian Ocegueda with 2%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and D. R. Hunter with 0%; other with 6%; none of the above with 17%
^Michael Cooper with 4%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; "someone else" with 6%
^Michael Cooper with 2%
^"Someone else" with 19.1%
^ a b cWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
^Veronica Escobar with 5%; Sylvia Garcia, Clay Jenkins, Sri Preston Kulkarni and Kim Olson with 3%; Rafael Anchia and Lizzie Pannell Fletcher with 1%; Mark Strama with 0%; would not vote with 12%
^Michael Cooper with 4%
^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 2%; McKennon (L) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
^"Someone else" with 2%
^Standard VI response
^Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
^Results generated with high Republican turnout model
^Did not vote with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
^McKennon (L) and Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
^McKennon (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
^ a bIncludes "Refused"
^"Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
^ a bMcKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 1%
^McKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
^"Someone else" with 1%
^McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
^ a b c dOverlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sampling period
^McKennon (L) with 2%; Collins (G) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
^McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%
^McKennon (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 1%
^McKennon (L) with 4%; would not vote with 2%; "someone else" with 0%
^"Someone else" with 3%
^McDermott (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
^Collins (G) and McDermott (L) with 3%
^McDermont (L) with 4%; Collins (G) with 1%
^"Someone else" with 4%
^"Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 14%
^"Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
^ a b"Other" and would not vote with 3%
^"Someone else" with 16%
^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
^Would not vote with 2%
^"Would definitely not vote for Cornyn" with 35%
^"Would consider voting for Cornyn" with 30%; "Don't know/no answer" with 13%
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Further reading
Nick Corasaniti; Stephanie Saul; Patricia Mazzei (September 13, 2020), "Big Voting Decisions in Florida, Wisconsin, Texas: What They Mean for November", New York Times, archived from the original on September 13, 2020, Both parties are waging legal battles around the country over who gets to vote and how
Amber Phillips (October 9, 2020), "The Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November", Washingtonpost.com