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2020 United States Senate election in Texas

The 2020 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the State of Texas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn won re-election to a fourth term against Democratic nominee MJ Hegar by 9.6%.

Prior to the election, most news organizations projected this race as "Lean Republican", and was not expected to be as competitive as the contest for Texas's other Senate seat two years prior, when Republican incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke by a 2.6% margin. Nonetheless, John Cornyn won in what was his worst performance out of his four elections for the U.S. Senate, while MJ Hegar's 43.9% marked the highest vote share of any of Cornyn's Democratic challengers. Despite this being Cornyn’s worst performance percentage-wise, he more than doubled his 2014 vote count and received the most raw votes for a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the history of the United States.

Cornyn outperformed President Donald Trump in the state by about 4%, and was able to carry two counties won by Joe Biden (Tarrant and Williamson). While Cornyn did better than Trump in the Texas Triangle, contributing to his over performance, Hegar slightly outperformed Biden in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley, and was able to carry one Trump county (Zapata), though Hegar herself vastly underperformed previous Democratic margins in the region.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Declined

Endorsements

John Cornyn
U.S. senators
Statewide officials

Polling

Results

Results by county:
Cornyn
  •   Cornyn—80–90%
  •   Cornyn—70–80%
  •   Cornyn—60–70%
  •   Cornyn—50–60%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the runoff

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

MJ Hegar
Federal officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez (eliminated)
Federal officials
Labor unions
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals
Royce West (eliminated)
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals
Amanda Edwards (eliminated)
Newspapers
Organizations
Individuals

First round

Debates

Polling

Results

Initial round results by county:
Hegar
  •   Hegar—60–70%
  •   Hegar—50–60%
  •   Hegar—40–50%
  •   Hegar—30–40%
  •   Hegar—20–30%
  •   Hegar—<20%
Tie
  •   Tie
West
  •   West—<20%
  •   West—20–30%
  •   West—30–40%
  •   West—40–50%
Ramirez
  •   Ramirez—<20%
  •   Ramirez—20–30%
  •   Ramirez—30–40%
  •   Ramirez—40–50%
  •   Ramirez—50–60%
Garcia
  •   Garcia—<20%
  •   Garcia—20–30%
  •   Garcia—30–40%
  •   Garcia—100%
Edwards
  •   Edwards—<20%
  •   Edwards—20–30%
  •   Edwards—30–40%
Bell
  •   Bell—<20%
  •   Bell—20–30%
  •   Bell—30–40%
  •   Bell—40–50%
Hernandez
  •   Hernandez—<20%
  •   Hernandez—20–30%
  •   Hernandez—30–40%
Cooper
  •   Cooper—<20%
  •   Cooper—20–30%

Runoff

Polling

Debates

Results

Runoff results by county
Hegar
  •   Hegar—>90%
  •   Hegar—80–90%
  •   Hegar—70–80%
  •   Hegar—60–70%
  •   Hegar—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie
West
  •   West—50–60%
  •   West—60–70%
  •   West—70–80%
  •   West—>90%
No vote
  •   No vote

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn

Green Party

Nominee

People Over Politics Party

Withdrawn

Human Rights Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debate

Predictions

Endorsements

John Cornyn (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State & Local Officials
Newspapers
Organizations
MJ Hegar (D)
U.S. presidents
Federal officials
State officials
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Unions

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Hypothetical polling
with Royce West
with Chris Bell
with Sema Hernandez
with Beto O'Rourke
with generic Democrat
with generic Opponent
with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Results

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Data for Progress had endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign prior to the sampling period
  2. ^ a b c d Data for Progress has endorsed the Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
  4. ^ Poll conducted for John Cornyn.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ^ Giffords endorsed Hegar to this poll's sampling period
  7. ^ Poll sponsored for The Consumer Energy Alliance which is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group.
  8. ^ Poll conducted for the Texas Youth Power Alliance.
  9. ^ Poll conducted for Latino Decisions.
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
Additional candidates and voter samples
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Michael Cooper with 4%; "other" with 1%
  3. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  4. ^ The five remaining candidates or "someone else" with 34%; refused with 6%
  5. ^ Michael Cooper, Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and Victor Hugo Harris with 3%; D. R. Hunter with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%
  6. ^ Michael Cooper with 2%; Victor Hugo Harris and Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr., D. R. Hunter, and "not voting" with 0%
  7. ^ Leaning towards no one candidate, but not leaning towards not voting
  8. ^ Michael Cooper and Victor Hugo Harris with 5%; Adrian Ocegueda with 2%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. and D. R. Hunter with 0%; other with 6%; none of the above with 17%
  9. ^ Michael Cooper with 4%; Jack Daniel Foster Jr. with 2%; Adrian Ocegueda with 1%; "someone else" with 6%
  10. ^ Michael Cooper with 2%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 19.1%
  12. ^ a b c With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  13. ^ Veronica Escobar with 5%; Sylvia Garcia, Clay Jenkins, Sri Preston Kulkarni and Kim Olson with 3%; Rafael Anchia and Lizzie Pannell Fletcher with 1%; Mark Strama with 0%; would not vote with 12%
  14. ^ Michael Cooper with 4%
  15. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  16. ^ Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 2%; McKennon (L) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  18. ^ Standard VI response
  19. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  20. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  21. ^ Did not vote with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  22. ^ McKennon (L) and Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  23. ^ McKennon (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  24. ^ a b Includes "Refused"
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
  26. ^ a b McKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 1%
  27. ^ McKennon (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
  28. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  29. ^ McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  30. ^ a b c d Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  31. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sampling period
  32. ^ McKennon (L) with 2%; Collins (G) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  33. ^ McKennon (L) with 2%; Turullols-Bonilla (I) with 1%
  34. ^ McKennon (L) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  35. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  36. ^ McKennon (L) with 4%; would not vote with 2%; "someone else" with 0%
  37. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  38. ^ McDermott (L) with 3%; Collins (G) with 2%
  39. ^ Collins (G) and McDermott (L) with 3%
  40. ^ McDermont (L) with 4%; Collins (G) with 1%
  41. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  42. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 2%
  43. ^ "Another candidate" with 14%
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  45. ^ a b "Other" and would not vote with 3%
  46. ^ "Someone else" with 16%
  47. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  48. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  49. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Cornyn" with 35%
  50. ^ "Would consider voting for Cornyn" with 30%; "Don't know/no answer" with 13%

References

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Further reading

External links

Official campaign websites