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Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from after the previous general election, held on 7 May 2015, to immediately before 8 June 2017. Under fixed-term legislation, the next general election was scheduled to be held on 7 May 2020. However, on 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May said that she would seek to bring forward the general election to Thursday 8 June 2017, which the House of Commons approved on 19 April. For an early election to be held, two-thirds of the total membership of the House had to support the resolution. The Conservative Party went into the election defending its overall majority won in 2015 with the Labour Party as the leading opposition party both in terms of polling numbers and seats.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain, as Northern Ireland seats are contested by a different set of political parties. Most YouGov polls include the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru as single options. The English and Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Irish Green Parties are also treated as a single option by most polls.

Graphical summaries

  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens
Polling for the 2017 UK general election campaign period (18 April onwards), including polls released by 3pm 8 June 2017 (moving average is calculated from the last six polls)
  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[1] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. If there is a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results are generally rounded to the nearest percentage point (where a result is less than 0.5%, but more than zero, it is indicated by '*'). Percentages may not add to 100%, due to rounding. Data for all polls listed was obtained online, with the exception of Ipsos MORI and Survation, who obtained their data both online and by telephone.

The poll results shown are the 'headline' figures, those published or broadcast in the mainstream media. Polling organisations obtain raw data from respondents and subsequently adjust or 'weight' this according to their projections of turnout and voting on election day based on, for example, age and party preference. Each polling organisation weights its raw data differently.

The six parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2015 general election are listed here. Other parties are included in the "Others" column.

  Conservative Party (Con)
  Labour Party (Lab)
  UK Independence Party (UKIP)
  Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)
  Scottish National Party (SNP) — Scotland only
  Green parties (Green Party of England and Wales and Scottish Greens) (Green)

2017

2016

2015

YouGov model

During the election campaign, YouGov created a Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model based on poll data. As set out by YouGov, the model "works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain based on analysis of key demographics as well as past voting behaviour", with new interviews to registered voters conducted every day.[8]

UK-wide seat projections

The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system means that national shares of the vote do not give an exact indicator of how the various parties will be represented in Parliament. Different commentators and pollsters provided a number of predictions, based on polls and other data, as to how the parties would be represented in Parliament:

Lord Ashcroft Polls announced an estimate for the election result. He updated it at intervals on his website.[20][21]

Electoral Calculus maintained a running projection of seats according to latest polls on its website based on universal changes from the previous general election results according to opinion poll averages. It also maintained a seat-by-seat projection for Scotland.[10]

Election Forecast also maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website.[9]

Elections Etc. issued regular forecasts based on current opinion poll averages, betting markets, expert predictions and other sources on their website.[13]

YouGov issued daily seat estimates using their aggregated statistical election model.[15]

Britain Elects maintained a 'nowcast' of seats based on historical data as well as national and regional polling.[16]

ScenariPolitici.com maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website.[17]

Spreadex maintained Party Seats spread bets throughout the election, with prices updated daily.[22]

Sub-national polling

Scotland

Scottish opinion polling for the 2017 general elections. Trendlines are local regressions.
  SNP
  Conservative
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  Scottish Greens

Wales

Welsh opinion polling for the 2017 general elections. Trendlines are local regressions.
  Labour
  Conservative
  UKIP
  Plaid Cymru
  Liberal Democrats
  Green

Northern Ireland

Regional polling in England

North East England

North West England

Yorkshire and the Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Polls of individual constituencies

Battersea

Brighton Pavilion

†The Liberal Democrats did not field a candidate in Brighton Pavilion.

Edinburgh South

†There was neither a Scottish Green nor any "other" candidates fielded Edinburgh South.

Kensington

Tatton

†UKIP did not field a candidate in Tatton.

Preferred prime minister polling

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister – Theresa May (Conservative Party) or Jeremy Corbyn (Labour Party). The questions differ slightly from pollster to pollster:

May vs Corbyn

2017

2016

Cameron vs Corbyn

2016

2015

Multiple party leaders

Some polls ask voters to choose between multiple party leaders. The questions vary by pollster:

2017

2016

Hypothetical polling

Hypothetical polling

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d YouGov was worried they would get this final poll wrong as in 2015, and the poll suggested a hung parliament which they doubted. YouGov made last minute small methodology changes which transferred 2% from Labour to Conservative, increasing predicted Conservative lead from 3% to 7%. Peter Kellner wrote in 2022 this "turned an excellent poll into a mediocre one".[3][4]
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm Includes those expressing a voting intention for Plaid Cymru.
  3. ^ a b c d Telephone.
  4. ^ a b This survey included respondents from Northern Ireland.
  5. ^ GB forecast only
  6. ^ Electoral Calculus counts Speaker John Bercow in the Conservative total

References

  1. ^ "Westminster Voting Intention". OpinionBee.uk. Retrieved 16 October 2016.
  2. ^ a b "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  3. ^ Kellner, Peter (8 June 2022). "Why do polling firms like YouGov tweak polls? Because they are scared of being wrong". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  4. ^ Stone, Jon (8 June 2022). "YouGov 'banned' release of 2017 leader debate poll because it was 'too good for Labour'". The Independent. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  5. ^ "Election campaigning suspended after London Bridge attack". Independent.co.uk. 4 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 May 2022.
  6. ^ "Election 2015: Results – National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Election 2015: Results – Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  8. ^ Revell, Timothy (9 June 2017). "How YouGov's experimental poll correctly called the UK election". New Scientist. Retrieved 9 June 2017.
  9. ^ a b Hanretty, Chris. "2017 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast". electionforecast.co.uk. Retrieved 31 May 2017.
  10. ^ a b "General Election Prediction". electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 31 May 2017.
  11. ^ "Ashcroft Model update: absent UKIP, and Labour's enthusiasm question". lordashcroftpolls.com. 19 May 2017.
  12. ^ Combined probabilistic estimate
  13. ^ a b "COMBINED FORECAST FOR GE2017: SECOND UPDATE". 2 June 2017.
  14. ^ "CONSTITUENCY FORECASTS, June 2017, New Statesman". 31 May 2017. Archived from the original on 13 August 2018. Retrieved 1 June 2017.
  15. ^ a b "Voting intention and seat estimates". Retrieved 6 June 2017.
  16. ^ a b "The Britain Elects Nowcast". June 2017. Archived from the original on 5 June 2017. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  17. ^ a b "#GE17 UK General Election 2017 – 6 June projection". Scenaripolitici.com (in Italian). 6 June 2017. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  18. ^ "Forecast #GE2017 – 8th June 2017". Forecast UK. 8 June 2017.
  19. ^ "Spreadex UK General Election Update, 7th June 2017 | Spreadex | Financial Spread Betting". www.spreadex.com. 7 June 2017. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
  20. ^ "Election 2017: The Ashcroft Model". Lord Ashcroft Polls. 12 May 2017. Retrieved 17 May 2017.
  21. ^ "Dapresy". dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com. Archived from the original on 17 May 2021. Retrieved 2 June 2017.
  22. ^ "Politics Spread Betting | Spreadex | The Spread Experts". www.spreadex.com. Retrieved 20 July 2020.
  23. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  24. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  25. ^ including Green
  26. ^ "Results of the 2017 General Election". BBC. Retrieved 10 June 2017.
  27. ^ Ipsos MORI's figures for 'don't know' are significantly lower than other pollsters on this question as they only prompt for May and Corbyn, with don't know/other/none included if respondents offer it unprompted
  28. ^ 1% of respondents chose 'Other' and a further 1% said 'no difference'.
  29. ^ The question used by Kantar Public differs slightly in its wording from other pollsters. They ask: "If you had to choose between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"

External links