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Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011.
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure.

Individual polls

Preferred prime minister

Individual polls

Other polls

Epsom electorate vote

^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.

Voting method referendum

Concern over validity

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote.[102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls.[102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel.[103]At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ The Mana Movement and the Conservative Party of New Zealand were both formed in 2011, and as such, did not contest the 2008 general election

References

  1. ^ "John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction'". Roy Morgan Research. 30 November 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  2. ^ "'Honeymoon' period continues for new New Zealand Prime Minister John Key; National Party (47%) well ahead of Labour (31.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 14 December 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  3. ^ "John Key's New Zealand Government retains strong lead; National Party (48%) well ahead of Labour (33%)". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  4. ^ "NZ National Party-led Government (56%) well ahead of Opposition Parties (44%)". Roy Morgan Research. 5 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w "National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  6. ^ a b c d e f TVNZ Teletext, p.497 Retrieved 3 August 2009.
  7. ^ "National's honeymoon continues, according to poll" (video). TV3. 18 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  8. ^ a b "National still on honeymoon". The Dominion Post. 6 April 2009. Archived from the original on 12 September 2017. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  9. ^ a b c Roy Morgan Research (24 June 2009). "National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand". Angus Reid Public Opinion. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  10. ^ "Poll: National falls, Labour gains". The New Zealand Herald. 21 September 2009. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  11. ^ "2009 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  12. ^ a b "3 News Reid Research poll results". 3 News. 18 October 2009. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  13. ^ a b "Poll makes grim reading for Goff and Harawira". TVNZ. 29 November 2009. Retrieved 2 December 2009.
  14. ^ a b TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
  15. ^ a b "Goff finally passes Helen Clark as preferred PM". 3 News. 13 December 2009. Retrieved 15 December 2009.
  16. ^ a b Cheng, Derek (13 February 2010). "Poll records growing support for Key". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 February 2010.
  17. ^ "People more realistic about the economy – Key". 3 News. 22 February 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  18. ^ "2010 poll results". Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 13 March 2010.
  19. ^ "National-led Government (55%, down 2%) lead over Opposition Parties (45%, up 2%) – Cut to lowest since February 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 9 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  20. ^ Newstalk ZB (10 April 2010). "Support for National slips". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  21. ^ a b "National continues to ride high in the polls". ONE News. Television New Zealand. 18 April 2010. Retrieved 18 April 2010.
  22. ^ "Labour finding traction, Goff a little lost – poll". 3 News. 25 April 2010. Retrieved 26 April 2010.
  23. ^ a b c d "National-led Government (58.5%, up 3%) further ahead of Opposition Parties (41.5%); National up 2.5% to 53%, Labour down 4% to 29%". Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2010. Archived from the original on 12 July 2010. Retrieved 16 July 2010.
  24. ^ a b New Zealand Press Association (30 May 2010). "Support for National dips – poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
  25. ^ "National's support dips in latest poll" (video). ONE News. Television New Zealand. 30 May 2010. Retrieved 30 May 2010.
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  27. ^ a b "Labour's support up after tough month – tvnz.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  28. ^ a b c d "Labour makes gains in polls – nzherald.co.nz". The New Zealand Herald. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  29. ^ a b "Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll – 3news.co.nz". 8 August 2010. Retrieved 8 August 2010.
  30. ^ a b c d "Roy Morgan Poll – 16 September 2010". 16 September 2010. Retrieved 5 October 2010.
  31. ^ a b ONE News (26 September 2010). "Surge in popularity for National – poll". Retrieved 30 September 2010.
  32. ^ "Roy Morgan Poll – 25 October 2010". 25 October 2010. Retrieved 3 November 2010.
  33. ^ "Voters weigh in on GST increase – poll – 3news.co.nz". 11 October 2010. Retrieved 13 October 2010.
  34. ^ a b c d "Roy Morgan Poll – 17 December 2010". 17 December 2010. Retrieved 19 December 2010.
  35. ^ "3 News Reid Research Poll – December 2010" (PDF). 3 News. 13 December 2010. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  36. ^ a b OneNews (19 December 2010). "National streets ahead in final One News poll for 2010". Retrieved 19 December 2010.
  37. ^ Young, Audrey (30 December 2010). "National's support slips but it's still out on its own". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 10 January 2011.
  38. ^ "Roy Morgan Poll – 21 January 2010". 21 January 2011. Retrieved 21 January 2011.
  39. ^ a b "Roy Morgan Poll – 21 February 2010". 21 February 2011. Retrieved 2 March 2011.
  40. ^ a b "National's popularity falls, but no party near it – Colmar Poll". Television New Zealand. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  41. ^ a b "Key still strong as preferred PM, but gap closing". 3 News. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 21 February 2011.
  42. ^ a b c "Roy Morgan Research Poll – 8 April 2011". 8 April 2011. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
  43. ^ a b "National well ahead but Labour survives scandal". Television New Zealand. 10 April 2011. Retrieved 11 April 2011.
  44. ^ a b Bennett, Adam (17 April 2011). "National climbs closer to record high in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 April 2011.
  45. ^ a b c "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT INCREASES LEAD". 23 May 2011. Retrieved 26 May 2011.
  46. ^ a b Young, Audrey (27 May 2011). "Goff well down in PM stakes but rating okay as Labour's leader". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 28 May 2011.
  47. ^ a b "National still sitting pretty after zero Budget – Colmar Poll". Television New Zealand. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 30 May 2011.
  48. ^ a b "National slips a little in poll, but still going strong". 3 News. 29 May 2011. Retrieved 31 May 2011.
  49. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DIPS SHARPLY BUT WOULD STILL WIN". 9 June 2011. Retrieved 9 June 2011.
  50. ^ a b "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT MAINTAINS LEAD AND WOULD WIN EASILY – 60% cf. 40%". 30 June 2011. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  51. ^ Young, Audrey (1 July 2011). "Poll: Labour gains, but Nats would still govern alone". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 1 July 2011.
  52. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT LEAD DOWN BUT WOULD WIN EASILY – 55% cf. 45%". 19 July 2011. Retrieved 20 July 2011.
  53. ^ "Greens on the up, National in front – poll". 3 News. 10 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
  54. ^ Bennett, Adam (14 July 2011). "Poll: Labour unveils 'bold' tax plan". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 15 July 2011.
  55. ^ a b "Labour support plummets in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 July 2011. Retrieved 17 July 2011.
  56. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT GAINS AND HAS WINNING LEAD 57.5% cf. 42.5%". 28 July 2011. Retrieved 5 August 2011.
  57. ^ Watkins, Tracy (27 July 2011). "Labour 'not fazed' by dismal poll result". stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 31 August 2011.
  58. ^ a b Watkins, Tracy; Vance, Andrea (31 August 2011). "Greens shoot up in poll". Stuff (company). Retrieved 31 August 2011.
  59. ^ a b Young, Audrey (30 July 2011). "Voters prefer Labour policy but not party: Poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 July 2011.
  60. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVT. DOWN BUT HAS WINNING LEAD: 55.5% cf. 44.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 11 August 2011. Retrieved 14 August 2011.
  61. ^ a b "Key and National hit new highs in poll". Television New Zealand. 21 August 2011. Retrieved 21 August 2011.
  62. ^ "Poll shows National far ahead of Labour". 3 News. 21 August 2011. Retrieved 21 August 2011.
  63. ^ Trevett, Claire (30 August 2011). "Pre-election gloom for Labour after poll tumble". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 30 August 2011.
  64. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED – 56% cf. 44%". Roy Morgan Research. 1 September 2011. Retrieved 3 September 2011.
  65. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD SURGES 61.5% (UP 5.5%) cf. 38.5% (DOWN 5.5%). BIGGEST LEAD SINCE OCTOBER 2009". Roy Morgan Research. 16 September 2011. Retrieved 18 September 2011.
  66. ^ a b Donnell, Hayden (13 September 2011). "Waterfront move an 'overreaction'". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 September 2011.
  67. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS: NATIONAL 55.5% (DOWN 6%) cf. LABOUR 44.5% (UP 6%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 3 October 2011.
  68. ^ "New Zealand's credit rating downgraded – stuff.co.nz". The Dominion Post. 30 September 2011. Retrieved 7 October 2011.
  69. ^ Vance, Andrea (28 September 2011). "Asset sales, Christchurch rebuild on voters' minds". Stuff (company). Retrieved 30 September 2011.
  70. ^ "More poll woe for Labour and Goff". Television New Zealand. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
  71. ^ "Latest 3 News poll shows Nat's support doubled". 3 News. 2 October 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2011.
  72. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD INCREASES 59.5% (UP 4%) CF. LABOUR 40.5% (DOWN 4%)". Roy Morgan Research. 18 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2011.
  73. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DECREASES – 57.5% (DOWN 2%) CF. OPPOSITION PARTIES 42.5% (UP 2%)". Roy Morgan Research. 31 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  74. ^ "Chief Justice steps in for Writ Day". Newstalk ZB. 26 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
  75. ^ "Electoral statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 28 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  76. ^ a b Young, Audrey (29 October 2011). "National gains, Labour loses, but Goff's edging up". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 October 2011.
  77. ^ "Gap closes between Key and Goff in poll". 3 News. 30 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
  78. ^ Watkins, Tracy (2 November 2011). "Labour gains ground in latest poll – stuff.co.nz". Retrieved 2 November 2011.
  79. ^ Young, Audrey (3 November 2011). "Labour slips further in latest poll". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
  80. ^ a b "National could easily govern alone, poll shows". Television New Zealand. 3 November 2011. Retrieved 3 November 2011.
  81. ^ "NEW ZEALAND NATIONAL-LED GOVERNMENT'S WINNING LEAD DIPS AGAIN". Roy Morgan Research. 11 November 2011. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
  82. ^ Watkins, Tracy; Migone, Paloma (9 November 2011). "National heading for outright win". Retrieved 9 November 2011.
  83. ^ Young, Audrey (11 November 2011). "Poll shock as Nats drop under 50%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 11 November 2011.
  84. ^ "Drop in support for National and Labour – poll". Television New Zealand. 10 November 2011. Retrieved 10 November 2011.
  85. ^ "National to govern alone if poll holds for election night". 3 News. 13 November 2011. Retrieved 13 November 2011.
  86. ^ Young, Audrey (18 November 2011). "Poll shock: Winston within a whisker". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 18 November 2011.
  87. ^ "Labour hits ten year low in latest poll". Television New Zealand. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
  88. ^ "NZ First climb polls on back of teapot tapes". 3 News. 17 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.
  89. ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR NEW ZEALAND ELECTION VICTORY NEXT SATURDAY". Roy Morgan Research. 19 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  90. ^ a b Watkins, Tracy (23 November 2011). "National still cosy in polls after tea break". Stuff (company). Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  91. ^ Young, Audrey (25 November 2011). "Final poll: Nats win looks certain, Winston over 5%". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  92. ^ "Gap closes as election looms – poll". Television New Zealand. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  93. ^ Garner, Duncan (24 November 2011). "Poll shows undecided voters figure leaps up". 3 News. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  94. ^ "NATIONAL SET FOR ELECTION VICTORY, BUT NO MAJORITY AS 'TEAPOT TAPE' SCANDAL DENTS NATIONAL & BENEFITS NZ FIRST". Roy Morgan Research. 25 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  95. ^ "Enrolment statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 25 November 2011.
  96. ^ "Thousands get their votes in early". 3 News. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 24 November 2011.
  97. ^ a b "Election Results – Overall Status". Electoral Commission. 10 December 2011. Archived from the original on 21 August 2006. Retrieved 10 December 2011.
  98. ^ Labour still struggling, but signs of life – poll. 3 News. 8 August 2010. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  99. ^ Fisher, David (9 October 2011). "Epsom poll has Banks sidelined". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  100. ^ Vance, Andrea (17 November 2011). "ACT polls at wipeout low in Epsom". Fairfax Media (via Stuff.co.nz). Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  101. ^ "'Cup of tea' meeting fails to sway voters to Act – poll". Television New Zealand. 18 November 2011. Retrieved 19 November 2011.
  102. ^ a b "Political poll results may exclude 30%?", Horizonpoll.co.nz, 28 May 2011. Retrieved 11 August 2011.
  103. ^ "For whom the belle polls", Andrew Balemi, 3 November 2011. Retrieved 17 November 2011.