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Elecciones generales de Ontario de 2022

Las elecciones generales de Ontario de 2022 se celebraron el 2 de junio de 2022 para elegir a los miembros del Parlamento provincial que formarán parte del 43.º Parlamento de Ontario .

Los gobernantes conservadores progresistas , liderados por el primer ministro Doug Ford , fueron reelegidos para un segundo gobierno de mayoría , ganando 7 escaños más de los que habían ganado en 2018. El NDP mantuvo su estatus como la Oposición Oficial , a pesar de perder escaños y terminar tercero en el voto popular, mientras que los Liberales de Ontario terminaron segundos en el voto popular, pero solo ganaron 8 escaños, una ganancia de un escaño con respecto a 2018, pero sin alcanzar el estatus de partido oficial . El Partido Verde retuvo el único escaño que ganó en 2018, mientras que el Nuevo Partido Azul y el Partido de Ontario no lograron ganar un escaño, ambos perdieron a sus únicos diputados provinciales en funciones.

La elección estableció un récord de participación electoral más baja en una elección provincial de Ontario, ya que solo votó el 43,53% de las personas que tenían derecho a votar. Esto rompió el récord anterior de participación baja del 48,2% en las elecciones de 2011. [ 2]

En esta elección se emitieron un total de 4.701.959 votos.[1]

Fondo

A partir de diciembre de 2016, las elecciones de Ontario se celebran el primer jueves de junio o antes del cuarto año calendario siguiente a la elección general anterior. [3]

En las elecciones generales de Ontario de junio de 2018 , el Partido Conservador Progresista (PC Party), liderado por Doug Ford, ganó un gobierno de mayoría sólida . El Nuevo Partido Democrático (NDP), liderado por Andrea Horwath , se convirtió en la Oposición Oficial ; esta fue la primera vez desde 1990 que superaron su estatus de tercer lugar. El Partido Liberal gobernante , liderado por la primera ministra Kathleen Wynne, fue diezmado, ganando solo 7 de los 124 escaños en la legislatura y quedando reducido al tercer lugar. El Partido Verde ganó su primer escaño en la historia, y su líder Mike Schreiner se convirtió en su primer Miembro del Parlamento Provincial (MPP).

Wynne renunció como líder inmediatamente después y el diputado provincial John Fraser la sucedió como líder interino; ocupó ese puesto hasta marzo de 2020 , cuando el ex ministro de Transporte de Wynne , Steven Del Duca , se convirtió en líder permanente del Partido Liberal. Mientras tanto, Horwath y Schreiner siguieron siendo líderes de sus partidos y no tenían intención de dimitir.

En diciembre de 2019, las encuestas mostraban que el gobierno de Ford era tan impopular como el anterior gobierno de Wynne como resultado de no recortar el gasto lo suficiente como prometió. [ editorializing ] [4] Sin embargo, los conservadores progresistas experimentaron un aumento de apoyo durante los primeros meses de la pandemia de COVID-19 ; una encuesta de Mainstreet Research en junio de 2020 mostró que los conservadores tenían el 42 por ciento, los liberales el 28 por ciento y el NDP el 23 por ciento. [5]

El 5 de octubre de 2020, los parlamentarios provinciales de Ontario votaron por unanimidad a favor de una moción que establecía que el gobierno no convocaría elecciones antes de la fecha fijada para las elecciones de 2022. [6] [7] Antes de esta votación, la Asamblea Legislativa de Ontario podría haber sido disuelta antes por el vicegobernador de Ontario mediante una moción de censura o si el primer ministro convocaba elecciones anticipadas (era extremadamente improbable que la primera opción fuera en contra del gobierno en ejercicio con mayoría ).

En abril de 2021, la provincia experimentó una tercera ola importante de infecciones por COVID-19 y, después de revertir rápidamente las políticas sanitarias del gobierno, como abrir y luego cerrar abruptamente restaurantes, el gobierno fue criticado por su manejo de la COVID-19. Esto provocó que el apoyo a los conservadores cayera, pero se mantuvieran por delante de los liberales y el NDP. [8]

A fines de abril de 2022, días antes de la convocatoria de elecciones, el gobierno de Ford publicó su presupuesto y prometió implementarlo si el gobierno era reelegido. El presupuesto registró un déficit de 19.900 millones de dólares y prometió un gasto sustancial en infraestructura (incluida la propuesta de la autopista 413 ) y exenciones impositivas para algunos trabajadores y personas mayores. [9]

El 3 de mayo de 2022, el primer ministro Doug Ford se reunió con el vicegobernador de Ontario para recomendar la disolución de la legislatura y la redacción de autos de elección. [10]

Cronología

  1. ^ del gabinete y del grupo parlamentario debido a acusaciones de conducta sexual inapropiada
  2. ^ desde el caucus tras oponerse a los recortes del gobierno a los servicios francófonos
  3. ^ Posteriormente fue eliminado debido a un presunto comentario sobre el autismo y una presunta falta de compromiso con el grupo parlamentario.
  4. ^ Puesto aceptado en el Massey College de la Universidad de Toronto
  5. ^ para postularse en las elecciones federales canadienses de 2019 para su escaño equivalente
  6. ^ desde el caucus después de votar en contra del proyecto de ley 195
  7. ^ co-creó (junto con su marido) el Nuevo Partido Azul , y se unió oficialmente poco después
  8. ^ del grupo parlamentario que se opone al confinamiento por el COVID
  9. ^ para postularse en las elecciones federales canadienses de 2021 para su escaño equivalente
  10. ^ de la asamblea parlamentaria por negativa a vacunarse contra el COVID-19
  11. ^ del caucus tras las acusaciones del partido de que había tergiversado su estado de vacunación contra la COVID-19.
  12. ^ desde el caucus durante el proceso de investigación para la reelección por haberse unido a un grupo islamófobo de Facebook
  13. ^ de las asambleas partidarias tras perder la nominación para ser reelegido

2018

2020

2021

2022

Periodo de campaña

Candidatos que no se presentan a la reelección

26 diputados provinciales decidieron no hacer campaña en las elecciones:

  1. ^ Previamente elegido bajo la bandera del NDP
  2. ^ abcd Previamente elegido bajo la bandera del PC

Lemas de fiesta

Debates

Asuntos

Resumen

El Presupuesto de Ontario para 2022, titulado Plan de Ontario para la Construcción, sirvió como plataforma del gobernante Partido Conservador. Los cinco temas principales que enfatizó fueron: hacer crecer la economía de energía limpia con minerales del Cinturón de Fuego, construir infraestructuras que incluyan la autopista 413, la circunvalación de Bradford y expandir el servicio GO, apoyar a los trabajadores financiando más programas de oficios especializados, aumentar el salario mínimo por hora a $15 y permitir que las universidades emitan títulos de tres años, reducir los impuestos eliminando las calcomanías de las matrículas, eliminar los peajes y reducir las tarifas de desarrollo de viviendas y, por último, evitar futuros cierres por COVID-19 contratando más trabajadores de la salud. [69]

La campaña del partido opositor oficial, el NDP, se centró en aumentar la financiación de los programas sociales y los servicios gubernamentales, que se financiarían mediante impuestos más altos a las empresas y a las personas que ganen más de 200.000 dólares al año. La financiación se destinaría a reducir el tamaño de las clases, aumentar los pagos de asistencia social y de discapacidad, a subvencionar a los empresarios negros, indígenas y LGBTQ+, a contratar más personal sanitario y educativo y a aumentar los salarios de los funcionarios públicos. El NDP también propuso ampliar los mandatos de vacunación contra la COVID-19, implementar un sistema electoral proporcional mixto, cerrar todos los centros de atención a largo plazo de propiedad privada y detener la construcción de nuevos proyectos de carreteras.

Respaldos

Encuestas de opinión

Encuestas de campaña

Gráfico de las encuestas realizadas durante la campaña electoral de Ontario de 2022

Encuestas previas a la campaña

Notas

  1. ^ 1% para Ontario Primero .
  2. ^ 2% para Ontario Primero .

Resultados

La desproporcionalidad de las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa en las elecciones de 2022 fue de 22,59 según el Índice Gallagher , debido principalmente a la disparidad entre la cuota de votos y la cuota de escaños de los liberales y los conservadores.

A pesar de haber registrado sólo un aumento marginal en el voto popular, el Partido Conservador Progresista ganó con una mayoría parlamentaria mayor. [170]

Las ganancias del PC se produjeron principalmente a expensas del Nuevo Partido Democrático , que perdió una importante proporción de votos principalmente a manos del Partido Liberal . Sin embargo, el NDP mantuvo su papel de oposición oficial por un amplio margen. Aunque ganó su escaño, Andrea Horwath renunció como líder del NDP. [171]

A pesar de haber superado al NDP en el segundo puesto del voto popular, los liberales sólo obtuvieron un escaño y no lograron recuperar el estatus oficial de partido . Después de no ganar en su propia circunscripción, el líder liberal Steven Del Duca también anunció su renuncia como líder del partido. [172]

Los únicos dos candidatos fuera de los tres partidos más grandes que fueron elegidos fueron el líder del Partido Verde, Mike Schreiner, y la candidata independiente Bobbi Ann Brady , quien antes de la elección era la asistente ejecutiva del diputado provincial saliente del PC en su distrito electoral.

A las 19:30 GMT del 3 de junio, los resultados no oficiales completos son los siguientes: [173] [174]

  1. ^ Bobbi Ann Brady fue elegida por Haldimand—Norfolk con 15.921 votos, o el 0,34% de los votos.

Sinopsis de resultados

 = asiento libre
 = la participación está por encima del promedio provincial
 = titular reelegido bajo la misma bandera del partido
 = el titular cambió de bando después de las elecciones de 2018
 = otros titulares fueron nominados nuevamente
  1. ^ Resumido de "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .
  2. ^ Resumido de «Resumen estadístico por distrito electoral: Elecciones generales provinciales de 2022». Elecciones Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .
  3. ^ Resumido de "Resumen de los votos válidos emitidos por cada candidato: Elecciones generales provinciales de 2022". Elecciones Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .
  4. ^ incluyendo votos nulos
  5. ^ La participación en toda la provincia fue del 44,06%
  6. ^ Los partidos políticos minoritarios que reciben menos del 1% del voto popular se agrupan en "Otros"; los candidatos independientes se agrupan por separado

Péndulo postelectoral

La solidez de los márgenes de victoria de cada partido se puede resumir en péndulos electorales . Estos no son necesariamente una medida de la volatilidad de los resultados de los respectivos distritos electorales. Las siguientes tablas muestran los márgenes de los distintos contendientes que quedaron en segundo lugar, para los cuales la mitad del valor representa la oscilación necesaria para revertir el resultado. Se indican las rotaciones de escaños reales en las elecciones de 2022 como referencia.

 = escaños que se revirtieron en la elección
  1. ^ Resumido de "Data Explorer". Elections Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .
  2. ^ Resumido de «Resumen estadístico por distrito electoral: Elecciones generales provinciales de 2022». Elecciones Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .
  3. ^ Resumido de "Resumen de los votos válidos emitidos por cada candidato: Elecciones generales provinciales de 2022". Elecciones Ontario . Consultado el 15 de diciembre de 2022 .

Resumen de resultados por región

Resultados detallados

Análisis resumido

La mayoría de las contiendas marginales de 2 y 3 vías

Resultados significativos entre candidatos independientes y de partidos minoritarios

A continuación se enumeran aquellos candidatos que no pertenecen a un partido mayoritario y que recibieron más de 1.000 votos en las elecciones:

Seats changing hands

Of the 124 seats, 26 were open because of MPPs who chose not to stand for reelection, and voters in only 14 seats changed allegiance from the previous election in 2018.


There were 14 seats that changed allegiance in the election:

Of the 14 seats that changed hands, seven were open seats where the MPPs chose to retire, and seven others saw their incumbents defeated.

  1. ^ sat as an Independent at dissolution
  1. ^ chose to stand as an Independent in the election

Three PC MPPs had changed allegiance during the course of the past Legislature, but failed to secure reelection under their new banners. The seats reverted to the PCs.

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