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Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

According to NPR's analysis, the states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.[1]

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity.

Alabama

Alaska

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Arizona

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Arkansas

California

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Colorado

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Georgia

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Indiana

Iowa

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Chase Oliver

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Maine's 1st congressional district

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump


Maine's 2nd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Maryland

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Massachusetts

Michigan

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls


Minnesota

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Mississippi

Missouri

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Montana

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Nebraska

Statewide


Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

Nevada

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls


New Hampshire

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

New Jersey

New Mexico

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

New York

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

North Carolina

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

North Dakota

Ohio

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Oklahoma

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Oregon

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Pennsylvania

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Hypothetical polling

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Texas

Donald Trump vs. Kamala HarrisAggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Utah

Vermont

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Virginia

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Washington

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

West Virginia

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Wisconsin

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver


Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Wyoming

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
  2. ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed because of redistricting.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf Cite error: The named reference key was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ "Other" with 3%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  10. ^ a b c d e f g Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ "Other" with 2%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  16. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  18. ^ Poll conducted for WTVT
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  20. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  21. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  22. ^ a b c d "Another candidate" with 2%
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s "Someone else" with 1%
  24. ^ Poll conducted for WAGA-TV
  25. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  26. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
  27. ^ "Other" with 1%
  28. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  30. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  31. ^ a b Another Party's Candidate with 1%
  32. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Other" with 1%
  33. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  35. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  36. ^ a b c Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  37. ^ a b Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  38. ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan.
  39. ^ Kishore (I) & Terry (C) with 0% each
  40. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  41. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  42. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  43. ^ "Other" with 4%
  44. ^ "Other" with 3%
  45. ^ "Other" with 4%
  46. ^ "Other" with 5%
  47. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  48. ^ "Other" with 8%
  49. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  50. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  51. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
  52. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  53. ^ Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
  54. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  55. ^ "Other" with 2%
  56. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  57. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
  58. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  59. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%
  60. ^ Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  61. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  62. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  63. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
  64. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  65. ^ a b c d e "Would not vote" with 1%
  66. ^ "Other" with 3%
  67. ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
  68. ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
  69. ^ "Other" with 3%
  70. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  71. ^ "Some other candidate" with 8%
  72. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  73. ^ "Someone else"
  74. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  75. ^ "Other candidate" with 3%
  76. ^ "Would not vote" with 4%
  77. ^ "Don't know" with 9%; "Libertarian candidate" with 4%"; "Green Party candidate" with 2%"
  78. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
  80. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  81. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  82. ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  83. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 6%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  84. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  85. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  86. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  87. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
  88. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  89. ^ "Other" with 1%
  90. ^ "Other" with 3%
  91. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
  92. ^ Randall Terry (C) & Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0% each
  93. ^ "Other" with 2%
  94. ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.
  95. ^ Randall Terry (C) with 1%
  96. ^ "Will not vote" with 4%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Begrich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  4. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  6. ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  7. ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  8. ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  11. ^ a b Poll commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  12. ^ a b c d e f g Poll commissioned by AARP Cite error: The named reference "AARP" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  13. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  14. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Destiny Wells, 2024 Democratic nominee for attorney general
  16. ^ Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
  17. ^ a b This poll was commissioned by the AARP.
  18. ^ a b Poll commissioned by MIRS
  19. ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
  20. ^ a b c d e Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  21. ^ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics
  22. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference rising was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  23. ^ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  24. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
  25. ^ a b Poll commissioned by Split Ticket
  26. ^ a b Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  28. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  29. ^ Cite error: The named reference Cjournal was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  30. ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
  31. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  32. ^ Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
  33. ^ Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  34. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  35. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
  36. ^ Poll sponsored by The Tennessean
  37. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas
  38. ^ Poll sponsored by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston
  39. ^ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
  40. ^ Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, & University of Washington Information School
  41. ^ Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews
  42. ^ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications

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