stringtranslate.com

2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

The 2022 Alaska at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young.[2] Mary Peltola defeated former governor Sarah Palin in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native or woman to represent Alaska in the House.[3]

The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the instant-runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted.[4][5][6] Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008[7] and was sworn in on September 13.[8]

The results were praised by many pundits and activists. FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, argued the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system.[9] Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.[10]

By contrast, many social choice theorists criticized the instant-runoff procedure for its pathological behavior.[11][12] The final winner, Mary Peltola, received no support on a majority of ballots.[13] Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite a majority of voters preferring him to each of his opponents.[13][14][15] However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich’s elimination and costing Republicans the seat.[13][16] The election was a center squeeze, where the candidate closest to the center of public opinion is eliminated.[17][18][19] It was also a negative voting weight event,[16] where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect (e.g. a candidate being eliminated for having "too many votes").[16][20] In this race, Peltola won as a result of 5,200 ballots that ranked her last (after Palin then Begich),[16][21] and would have lost if she had received more support from Palin voters.[16][22] However, observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading several to suggest Alaska adopt any one of several alternatives without this behavior.[15][11][23]

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Withdrew after advancing to general election

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
Organizations
Individuals
  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law[48]
Santa Claus (I)
State legislators
Christopher Constant (D)
U.S. senators
  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)
State legislators
Local officials
Al Gross (I)
State officials
State legislators
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
Individuals
  • Alyse Galvin, Independent candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional seat in 2018 and 2020
Josh Revak (R)
Individuals
  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[54]
Tara Sweeney (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
State officials
Organizations
  • ANCSA Regional Association[55]

Debates and forums

Polling

Results

Primary election results by state house district

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[41]

Predictions

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)
State legislators
Local officials
  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member
Organizations
Individuals
  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. federal legislators
Individuals
Organizations
Mary Peltola (D)
U.S. federal legislators
State officials
State legislators
Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Results

Preference flow

See also

Wikinews has related news:
  • Peltola defeats Palin, Begich in Alaska special election for US House of Representatives

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. ^ a b Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. ^ Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. ^ a b Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. ^ Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross

References

  1. ^ a b "State of Alaska | 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION | Election Summary Report | August 16, 2022 | OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on August 17, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  2. ^ Miller, Andrew Mark (March 18, 2022). "Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young dead at 88". Fox News. Archived from the original on March 19, 2022. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
  3. ^ Rockey, Tim (September 2022). "Peltola to become first Alaska Native, first female Alaska congresswoman". Alaskasnewssource.com. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  4. ^ Brooks, James (March 19, 2022). "Alaska's first ranked-choice election will be a special vote to replace Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 23, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  5. ^ Iris Samuels. "Peltola again grows her lead, but final outcome in Alaska's U.S. House race is days away". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on August 28, 2022. Retrieved August 28, 2022.
  6. ^ "Democrat Mary Peltola wins special election to fill Alaska's U.S. House seat". Reuters. September 1, 2022. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  7. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 1, 2022). "What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  8. ^ Media, Alaska Public; Media, Chris Klint, Alaska Public (September 13, 2022). "Mary Peltola makes history as first Alaska Native person sworn into Congress". KTOO. Retrieved May 19, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  9. ^ Otis, Deb (August 31, 2022). "Results and analysis from Alaska's first RCV election". FairVote.
  10. ^ "North to the Future: Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting System is Praised and Criticized Nationally". Alaska Public Media. September 19, 2023.
  11. ^ a b Maskin, Eric; Foley, Edward B. (November 1, 2022). "Opinion: Alaska's ranked-choice voting is flawed. But there's an easy fix". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  12. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". p. 2. arXiv:2209.04764v3 [econ.GN]. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  13. ^ a b c Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". p. 2. arXiv:2209.04764v3 [econ.GN]. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  14. ^ Atkinson, Nathan; Ganz, Scott C. (October 30, 2022). "The flaw in ranked-choice voting: rewarding extremists". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2023. However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred to each of the more extreme candidates by a majority of voters. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
  15. ^ a b Clelland, Jeanne N. (February 28, 2023). "Ranked Choice Voting And the Center Squeeze in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Methods Compare?". p. 6. arXiv:2303.00108v1 [cs.CY].
  16. ^ a b c d e Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (January 2, 2024). "Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska". Math Horizons. 31 (1): 24–27. doi:10.1080/10724117.2023.2224675. ISSN 1072-4117.
  17. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". p. 2. arXiv:2209.04764v3 [econ.GN]. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  18. ^ Clelland, Jeanne N. (February 28, 2023). "Ranked Choice Voting And the Center Squeeze in the Alaska 2022 Special Election: How Might Other Voting Methods Compare?". p. 6. arXiv:2303.00108v1 [cs.CY].
  19. ^ Atkinson, Nathan; Ganz, Scott C. (October 30, 2022). "The flaw in ranked-choice voting: rewarding extremists". The Hill. Retrieved May 14, 2023. However, ranked-choice voting makes it more difficult to elect moderate candidates when the electorate is polarized. For example, in a three-person race, the moderate candidate may be preferred by a majority of voters to each of the more extreme candidates. However, voters with far-left and far-right views will rank the candidate in second place rather than in first place. Since ranked-choice voting counts only the number of first-choice votes (among the remaining candidates), the moderate candidate would be eliminated in the first round, leaving one of the extreme candidates to be declared the winner.
  20. ^ Doron, Gideon; Kronick, Richard (1977). "Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function". American Journal of Political Science. 21 (2): 303–311. doi:10.2307/2110496. ISSN 0092-5853. JSTOR 2110496.
  21. ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (September 11, 2022). "A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House". p. 2. arXiv:2209.04764v3 [econ.GN]. Since Begich wins both … he is the Condorcet winner of the election … AK election also contains a Condorcet loser: Sarah Palin. … she is also a spoiler candidate
  22. ^ Hamlin, Aaron (September 16, 2022). "RCV Fools Palin Voters into Electing a Progressive Democrat". The Center for Election Science. Retrieved July 11, 2024. It's a good thing for Peltola that she didn't attract more Palin voters—she'd have lost The strangeness continues. Peltola could have actually gotten more 1st choice votes in this election and caused herself to lose. How's that? Let's look. [...] Imagine if Peltola reached across the aisle and spoke directly to Palin voters. Imagine that she empathized with their position and identified issues they cared about that Palin and even Begich ignored. And let's say that as a consequence, Peltola got the first-choice votes of between 5,200 and 8,500 voters who would have otherwise ranked only Palin. What happens as a result? Palin would have gotten eliminated in the first round and Peltola would still not be able to beat Begich. {{cite web}}: line feed character in |quote= at position 88 (help)
  23. ^ Felsenthal, Dan S.; Tideman, Nicolaus (January 1, 2014). "Interacting double monotonicity failure with direction of impact under five voting methods". Mathematical Social Sciences. 67: 57–66. doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2013.08.001. ISSN 0165-4896.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay "2022 Special Primary Election for U.S. Representative". Alaska Division of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  25. ^ a b "Begich, Constant to Run in Special Alaska US House Election". Associated Press. March 21, 2022. Archived from the original on March 21, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  26. ^ a b c d Becky Bohrer (June 17, 2022). "Ex-legislator advances to Alaska's special US House election". Associated Press News. Archived from the original on June 18, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  27. ^ a b Ulloa, Jazmine; Peters, Jeremy W. (April 2, 2022). "Sarah Palin Announces She's Running for Congress in Alaska". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 10, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  28. ^ "Candidate list keeps growing with former lawmaker Mary Sattler Peltola". www.adn.com/. Archived from the original on April 1, 2022. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  29. ^ "Al Gross withdraws from Alaska's U.S. House campaign". Anchorage Daily News. June 21, 2022. Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  30. ^ a b Ruskin, Liz (June 21, 2022). "Al Gross, a top four candidate for US House, calls it quits". Archived from the original on June 23, 2022. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  31. ^ Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (March 22, 2022). "After Young's death, Alaska's political world braces for a sea change and an elections marathon". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 22, 2022.
  32. ^ a b c Samuels, Iris; Herz, Nathaniel; Brooks, James (April 2, 2022). "51 candidates: A wild U.S. House race takes shape in Alaska". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  33. ^ a b c d Bohrer, Becky (April 2, 2022). "Palin joins 50 others in running for Alaska US House seat". Alton Telegraph. Archived from the original on April 15, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  34. ^ a b "OUR campaign gives voters hope for a better future for all Alaskans, especially our children. Thank you so much for your unwavering support, kind words, and love (the greatest gift), and the powerful statement you have made with your vote. My 2-min video". Archived from the original on June 29, 2022. Retrieved June 28, 2022.
  35. ^ Bohrer, Becky (March 28, 2022). "Gross, Coghill say they plan to run for Alaska US House seat". San Francisco Chronicle. Associated Press. Archived from the original on March 29, 2022. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  36. ^ a b O'Hara, Ashlyn (April 2, 2022). "Soldotna resident joins bid for US House seat". Peninsula Clarion. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  37. ^ a b c Herz, Nathaniel (March 26, 2022). "An array of Alaska politicians ponder bids in the "absolute jungle" of elections to replace U.S. Rep. Don Young". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  38. ^ "Robert Lyons". Ballotpedia. Archived from the original on April 6, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  39. ^ "Emil Notti, who ran against Don Young in 1973, jumps into the race". www.adn.com/. Archived from the original on April 1, 2022. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
  40. ^ Pellegrini, Silvio (April 6, 2022). "LinkedIn Profile". LinkedIn.
  41. ^ a b Thiessen, Mark (June 26, 2022). "Alaska Supreme Court ruling keeps Sweeney off House ballot". Associated Press. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
  42. ^ George, Kavitha (August 12, 2022). "Sweeney files as official write-in candidate in special US House race". Alaska Public Media. Archived from the original on August 20, 2022. Retrieved August 24, 2022.
  43. ^ "Stephen Wright (Alaska)". Ballotpedia. Archived from the original on April 6, 2022. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
  44. ^ Hickman, Matt (March 21, 2022). "Rumors swirl, but Al Gross remains the only newcomer who's a virtual lock to enter race to replace Don Young". Anchorage Press. Archived from the original on March 22, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  45. ^ "Alaska's U.S. House candidate field expands as Friday deadline nears". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on April 2, 2022. Retrieved April 2, 2022.
  46. ^ a b "Nick Begich III speaks to News of the North". KINY. April 15, 2022. Archived from the original on April 22, 2022. Retrieved May 8, 2022.
  47. ^ Alaska Republican Party endorses Nick Begich III for US House, Alaska Public Media, Liz Ruskin, April 22, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  48. ^ Sarah Palin's former in-laws are supporting her main Republican opponent Nick Begich in the upcoming Alaska special election, Business Insider, Bryan Metzger, May 31, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  49. ^ "Letter: Support Constant". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on May 15, 2022. Retrieved May 14, 2022.
  50. ^ a b "Nikki Haley returns the favor: endorses Sarah Palin for Congress". The Post and Courier. Archived from the original on April 3, 2022. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  51. ^ a b Howie, Craig (April 3, 2022). "Trump endorses Palin in Alaska House special election". Politico. Archived from the original on April 4, 2022. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  52. ^ a b Koberg, Kelsey (May 9, 2022). "Elise Stefanik rolls out latest round of endorsements for 2022 midterm elections". Fox News. Archived from the original on May 9, 2022. Retrieved May 9, 2022.
  53. ^ a b "National Right to Life Endorses Sarah Palin in Alaska Congressional Special Election". National Right to Life Committee. May 26, 2022. Archived from the original on June 5, 2022. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
  54. ^ "Don Young's wife endorses Revak in Alaska House race". The Hill. Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  55. ^ "Revak, Sweeney get endorsements in bid for Alaska House seat". The Seattle Times. Associated Press. Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  56. ^ "VIDEO: U.S. House hopefuls pitch to resource development groups at candidate forum". Anchorage Daily News. May 12, 2022. Archived from the original on May 14, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022.
  57. ^ "2022 SPECIAL PRIMARY ELECTION OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. June 24, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 25, 2022. Retrieved June 25, 2022.
  58. ^ Wasserman, Dave (August 10, 2022). "Trump's Grip on GOP Remains Strong, but "Red Wave" Looking Smaller". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 10, 2022. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  59. ^ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on August 26, 2022. Retrieved August 26, 2022.
  60. ^ Kondik, Kyle (June 22, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022". Archived from the original on June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 22, 2022.
  61. ^ Gingrich, Newt (April 4, 2022). "Newt Gingrich Twitter". Twitter. Archived from the original on April 23, 2022. Retrieved April 23, 2022.
  62. ^ "NRA-PVF | Grades | Alaska". NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on August 3, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  63. ^ "MARY PELTOLA FOR U.S. CONGRESS "As a Native woman, I understand that Alaskans are a diverse people who need leaders who can unite us. We also need a federal government that helps stabilize our economy. My top priority is to improve Alaskans quality of life." Mary Peltola". July 31, 2022. Archived from the original on July 31, 2022. Retrieved August 2, 2022.
  64. ^ ago, Iris Samuels Updated: 1 day ago Published: 1 day. "Constant ends bid for Alaska's U.S. House seat, endorses Peltola". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on June 18, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  65. ^ "Democrats drop from U.S. House race, most backing Peltola". June 17, 2022. Archived from the original on June 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  66. ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Archived from the original on June 27, 2022. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  67. ^ "State of Alaska | 2022 SPECIAL GENERAL ELECTION | RCV Tabulation | August 16, 2022 | OFFICIAL RESULTS" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. September 2, 2022. Retrieved September 2, 2022.
  68. ^ Grabman, Jed (November 24, 2022), Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Summarizer, retrieved November 25, 2022