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2019 Alberta general election

The 2019 Alberta general election was held on April 16, 2019, to elect 87 members to the 30th Alberta Legislature.[2] In its first general election contest, the Jason Kenney-led United Conservative Party (UCP) won 54.88% of the popular vote and 63 seats, defeating incumbent Premier Rachel Notley. The governing Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) were reduced to 24 seats and formed the Official Opposition. The United Conservative Party was formed in 2017 from a merger of the Progressive Conservative Party and the Wildrose Party after the NDP's victory in the 2015 election ended nearly 44 years of Progressive Conservative rule.

The NDP won 24 seats in total: including all but one of the seats in Edmonton (19), three seats in Calgary (Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-McCall and Calgary-Mountain View), and the seats of Lethbridge-West and St. Albert. The UCP won the remaining 63 seats in the province. Two other parties that won seats in the 2015 election, the Alberta Party and the Alberta Liberals, failed to win any seats, making this election the first Alberta general election since 1993 where only two parties won seats.

The Election Act fixes the election date to a three-month period, between March 1 and May 31 in the fourth calendar year after the preceding election day which in this case was May 5, 2015. However, this did not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislative Assembly before this period.[3]

This election resulted in the highest voter turnout since 1982[4] at 68%, rising from 57% in the last general election held in 2015.[1][5] It marked only the fifth change of government since Alberta became a province in 1905, and also the first time an incumbent government failed to win a second term.

Across the province, 1,896,542 votes were cast in this election.[6]

Background

The 2015 Alberta general election resulted in a New Democratic majority government headed by Rachel Notley. The New Democrats surprise victory ended the 44-year government led by the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta, becoming the fourth change in governing party in Alberta's 110 year history. The Wildrose Party formed the Official Opposition under leader Brian Jean, while the incumbent Progressive Conservatives came third place, but were left without a leader after Jim Prentice resigned as leader and disclaimed his seat.[7] The Alberta Liberal Party elected one member with interim leader David Swann capturing his seat, while the Alberta Party elected its first candidate to the Legislature in leader Greg Clark.

Major changes in leadership of opposition parties occurred over the next four years. Former Conservative Party of Canada Member of Parliament and Minister Jason Kenney was elected in the 2017 Progressive Conservatives leadership election on a platform of uniting the right wing parties in Alberta which occurred after Wildrose members voted 95 per cent in favour of merging into the new United Conservative Party and forming the Official Opposition. Later the 2017 United Conservative Party leadership election saw Jason Kenney elected as party leader and leader of the Opposition.

The interim leader of the Alberta Liberal Party and sole Member of the Legislative Assembly declined to contest the 2017 Alberta Liberal Party leadership election, which saw David Khan elected leader of the party. The Alberta Party saw two Members of the Legislative Assembly cross the floor over the four year period. Party leader Greg Clark resigned as leader in 2017, and the 2018 Alberta Party leadership election saw former Progressive Conservative MLA and Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel elected as party leader.

Election finance changes

Following the NDP's election in 2015 the new government's first bill An Act to Renew Democracy in Alberta which amended the Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act was passed by the Legislature. The bill banned corporate and union donations to political parties, set rules for political parties accessing loans and reinforced that only Albertans are able to make political contributions.[8] The next year the government introduced further amendments reducing political contributions from $15,000 per year to a total of $4,000 per year (inclusive of parties, constituency associations, candidates, leadership contests, and nominations).[9][10] The election reforms were supported by the Wildrose opposition, but commentators pointed out the changes hurt the Progressive Conservatives which relied on large corporate donations.[9] Reforms also limited party expenses to $2 million between the writ and when polls close, limiting candidates to $50,000 per general election and $23,000 for by-elections.[9][11] Third party advertisers were limited to $150,000 during the official election period, and limited to $3,000 for supporting or opposing a candidate.[9][11]

2017 electoral boundary commission

The Electoral Boundaries Commission Act requires that a Commission be appointed during the first session of the Legislature following every second general election. The Commission requires a non-partisan chair, two government members recommended by the Premier, and two opposition members. Due to the decision by Premier Jim Prentice to call an early election in 2015, the Commission was required to be formed before the prescribed date in time for the next election in 2019.[12] Previous Commissions had provided for modest redistributions in favour of Alberta's cities which according to Political Scientist Roger Epp brought forward "deep rural anxieties" regarding declining population and influence in Alberta.[12]

The Commission was provided with a mandate which kept the size of the Legislature fixed at 87 seats.[13] The Commission was appointed, led by Justice Myra Bielby, and made only incremental changes, adding one new seat in Calgary and Edmonton, as well as a seat in the Airdrie area.[14] The Commission did, however, make significant statements on the rural-urban divide in Alberta, noting "Alberta is no longer entirely or primarily rural in nature" and a "disproportionate preservation of the rural voice" was no longer acceptable or feasible under law.[14][15] While the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act permits up to four districts to be formed with a population 50 per cent lower than the average population, the Commission only recommended that two of these districts be formed. The districts include Central Peace-Notley which had a population of 28,993 and area of 47,311 km2 (18,267 sq mi), and Lesser Slave Lake which had a population of 27,818, compared to the average population of electoral districts of 46,803 following redistribution.[16]

A minority opinion was presented by Commission members appointed by the opposition, arguing that Alberta's rate of growth was a threat to "a critical part of our history, culture, and primary economic voice" which is at risk of being lost through continued redistribution.[14][17]

The previous redistribution occurred in 2010 when an additional four constituencies were added, increasing the number from 83 to the present 87. Following the 2016 Canadian census the largest constituency Calgary-South East had grown to 79,034, while the smallest constituency Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley had a population of 25,192.[13]

Results

The United Conservative Party made a small improvement in its overall share of the popular vote compared to the combined vote of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties which preceded it. The party won 63 seats. The UCP finished no lower than second place in any constituency. UCP leader Jason Kenney won re-election in his constituency.

The Alberta New Democratic Party lost about one-fifth of its vote share, although due to the considerably higher turnout compared to 2015 it actually gained votes. The NDP with 24 seats formed the opposition in the Alberta legislature. The NDP finished first or second in 85 out of 87 ridings. NDP leader and outgoing premier Rachel Notley won re-election in her constituency.

No other party elected any MLAs, with the centrist Alberta Party being the only other party to run a full slate of candidates. The Alberta Party more than quadrupled its overall popular vote, but failed to win any seats. All three Alberta Party incumbents were defeated, with former leader Greg Clark (the only MLA previously elected under the Alberta Party banner) being the only Alberta Party candidate to finish as high as second place. Current Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel, a former mayor of Edmonton and PC cabinet minister, finished third in his own riding.

The Alberta Liberal Party finished fourth in the overall popular vote, with its vote share falling by more than three quarters. They were shut out of the legislature for the first time since 1982. Liberal Leader David Khan placed fourth in his constituency, which was formerly represented by his retiring predecessor David Swann.

A number of minor parties, including several running to the right of the UCP, contested the election, but none came close to winning any seats. The Alberta Independence Party (which fielded the most candidates after the UCP, NDP and AP) finished fifth in the overall popular vote. The Freedom Conservative Party finished sixth, although they ran fewer candidates compared to the other parties. On average, FCP candidates polled the most votes outside the three largest parties. The FCP's only incumbent (party founder and leader Derek Fildebrandt), who had been originally elected as a representative for the now defunct Wildrose Party, finished a distant third in his own riding.[18] The Green Party of Alberta finished seventh in the overall popular vote and the Alberta Advantage Party finished eighth.

The last time only two parties took all of the seats was in 1993, and the only time before that was in 1913 after the defeat of Socialist Party MLA Charles O'Brien and before the rise of farmer and labour parties. Incumbent Independent MLA Rick Strankman – previously a UCP MLA – finished second place in his riding.

This was the first provincial election in which eligible voters could cast ballots at any advance poll in the province, not just at stations in a person's riding. The program was called "Vote Anywhere" by Elections Alberta.[19]

Notley's 24-member caucus was the largest Official Opposition caucus since the Liberals won 32 seats in 1993. The overall result for the NDP (both in total seats and share of the vote) was the second best in the party's history after its 2015 win.

Due to the non-proportional representation First Past the Post election system that is used in Alberta, in 2019 the NDP swept all but one of the Edmonton seats, while the UCP swept almost all the seats in Calgary and 39 of the 41 seats in rural Alberta. NDP MLAs were elected in 20 of the 21 Edmonton districts, 3 of the 26 Calgary districts and 2 of the 41 districts outside the major cities, the latter including suburban St. Albert.

Summary results

  1. ^ a b c Difference compared to combined results of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties in 2015 (parties merged in 2017).
  2. ^ The United Conservative Party was founded in 2017 by a merger of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties. Together, these two parties won 30 seats in the 2015 election.
  3. ^ As the Alberta First Party.
  4. ^ a b The Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties merged in 2017 to form the United Conservative Party. Both predecessor parties remain officially registered, sharing a leadership team with the UCP. In order to maintain registration, each fielded a single candidate in the 2019 election.
  5. ^ a b Kenney's only public presence is as leader of the United Conservative Party.
  6. ^ a b The Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties only ran candidates to maintain official registration.
  7. ^ As the Alberta Social Credit Party.
  8. ^ Progressive Conservative candidate Jim Prentice disclaimed his victory in Calgary-Foothills. No member was elected from this riding.

Synopsis of results

  1. ^ "Provincial Results". elections.ab.ca. Elections Alberta. Retrieved January 8, 2023.
  2. ^ initially sorted by electoral district number
  3. ^ including spoilt ballots
  4. ^ minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote in 2019 or 2015, or otherwise fielding candidates in less than half the ridings in 2019, are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
  5. ^ also an open seat
  = results as certified in a judicial recount
  = open seat
  = incumbents switched allegiance after 2015 election
  = UCP candidate stripped of nomination

Detailed analysis

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Results by region

  1. ^ The Calgary region includes only ridings inside the city (i.e., ridings starting with "Calgary").
  2. ^ The Edmonton region includes only ridings inside the city (i.e., ridings starting with "Edmonton").
  3. ^ The central region includes the 12 "Central" districts plus 7 Edmonton suburban districts, making a total of 19.
  4. ^ The south region includes the seven "South" districts plus six Calgary suburban districts, making a total of 13.
  5. ^ a b The Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties merged in 2017 to form the United Conservative Party. Both predecessor parties remain officially registered, sharing a leadership team with the UCP. In order to maintain registration, each fielded a single candidate in the 2019 election.

Campaign finance

For the 2019 Alberta general election all parities cumulatively raised a total of $7.9 million and spent $11.3 million.[21] At the constituency level, Calgary-Mountain View had the highest expenses at a total of $212,354,[22] including four candidates which exceed $40,000.[23] Of the 38 candidates which exceeded $45,000 in expenses, 21 were elected.[22] Third party advertisers raised a total of $2.1 million and spent $1.9 million during the election.[24] Unions contributed 46 per cent of the revenue for third party advertisers, corporations contributed 39 per cent, and individuals contributed 15 per cent.[25]

Timeline

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Opinion polling

Three-poll average of Alberta opinion polling from May 5, 2015, to the last possible date of the next election on May 31, 2019. Each line corresponds to a political party.

The following is a list of scientific opinion polls of published voter intentions.

Incumbent MLAs not seeking re-election

The following MLAs have announced that they would not run in the 2019 provincial election:

  1. ^ McLean resigned her seat in early 2019, ahead of the general election, to resume her law career.

Results by riding

The final list of candidates was published by Elections Alberta on March 29, 2019.[97] The official results were published on May 14, 2019.[98]

Party leaders are in bold. Candidate names appear as they appeared on the ballot.

† = Not seeking re-election
‡ = Running for re-election in different riding

Northern Alberta

Edmonton

27 Edmonton constituencies Six Central Edmonton constituencies Seven North Edmonton constituencies Seven South Edmonton constituencies Seven Suburban Edmonton constituencies

Central

North

South

Suburbs

Central Alberta

West

East

Calgary

Central

East

Northwest

South

Suburbs

Southern Alberta

Footnotes

  1. ^ Combined results of the Progressive Conservative (9 seats, 27.79%) and Wildrose (21 seats, 24.22%) parties in 2015 (parties merged in 2017).

References

References

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  2. ^ "Elections Alberta". Archived from the original on March 22, 2019. Retrieved March 22, 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "United Conservative Majority" (PDF) (Press release). Forum Research. April 16, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 26, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  2. ^ "United Conservatives Extend Their Lead in Alberta" (PDF) (Press release). Research Co. April 15, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 16, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  3. ^ "Alberta Election 2019 Final Poll" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. April 15, 2019. Archived from the original on April 15, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  4. ^ "Alberta Poll" (PDF) (Press release). Pollara Strategic Insights. April 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 15, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  5. ^ "UCP (50%, up 3) Lead NDP (40%, up 1) by 10-Points as Campaign Closes" (PDF) (Press release). Ipsos. April 15, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 16, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  6. ^ "Alberta Provincial Election Ballot support as of April 13, 2019" (PDF) (Press release). Nanos Survey. April 15, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 22, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  7. ^ "Final Political Poll Alberta Provincial Election" (PDF) (Press release). Leger. April 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 16, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  8. ^ "Alberta Poll April 8–10" (PDF) (Press release). Pollara Strategic Insights. April 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 16, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  9. ^ "Alberta Election: UCP still leads by a wide margin, but gap with NDP has narrowed since election call" (PDF) (Press release). Angus Reid Institute. April 12, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  10. ^ "UCP (47%, down 5) Lead Shrinks to 8-Points Over NDP (39%, up 4)" (PDF) (Press release). Ipsos. April 9, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 10, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  11. ^ "Alberta Politics Public Opinion Research" (PDF) (Press release). Innovative Research Group. April 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  12. ^ "Alberta Votes 2019: The Provincial Horserace" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. April 9, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 9, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  13. ^ "Alberta Election – Post-Debate" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. April 8, 2019. Archived from the original on April 8, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  14. ^ "United Conservative Majority" (PDF) (Press release). Forum Research. April 6, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 16, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  15. ^ "Mid-Campaign Political Poll: Alberta Provincial Election" (PDF) (Press release). Leger. April 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 6, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  16. ^ "United Conservative Party Ahead in Alberta Campaign" (PDF) (Press release). Research Co. April 2, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 3, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  17. ^ "Global Petroleum Show: Provincial Election Survey" (PDF) (Press release). Janet Brown Opinion Research. April 3, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 3, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  18. ^ "Rachel Notley Closing Gap on Jason Kenney" (PDF) (Press release). EKOS Politics. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 31, 2019. Retrieved March 31, 2019.
  19. ^ "NDP Gain Nine Points Since January, But UCP Lead" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. March 21, 2019. Archived from the original on May 6, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  20. ^ "Alberta Election: UCP holds commanding lead as campaign begins" (PDF) (Press release). Angus Reid Institute. March 22, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 22, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  21. ^ "UCP (52%) well in front of NDP (35%) as April 16 election called" (PDF) (Press release). Ipsos. March 19, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 3, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  22. ^ "Eye on Alberta: Alberta's Provincial Campaign Begins" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. March 20, 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  23. ^ "Political Poll Alberta Provincial Election" (PDF) (Press release). Leger. March 2019. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 21, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  24. ^ "Rachel Notley Closing Gap on Jason Kenney" (PDF) (Press release). EKOS Politics. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  25. ^ "Alberta Politics: Provincial Vote Intention" (Press release). Lethbridge College. March 2019. Archived from the original on March 7, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  26. ^ "UCP Lead Over NDP; Notley's Approval Ratings Improve" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. January 22, 2018. Archived from the original on May 6, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  27. ^ "Eye on Alberta: Alberta's Public Affairs Monitor" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. November 2018. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 15, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  28. ^ "UCP Maintain A Wide Lead Over NDP; Kenney Polling Behind His Party" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. November 12, 2018. Archived from the original on January 10, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  29. ^ Coletto, David (November 9, 2018). "Alberta Pulse: UCP leads over NDP thanks to a more united right" (Press release). Abacus Data. Archived from the original on September 22, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  30. ^ "Alberta Politics: Provincial Vote Intention" (Press release). Lethbridge College. October 2018. Archived from the original on December 15, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  31. ^ "The UCP Have Wide Lead Over The NDP" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. July 30, 2018. Archived from the original on January 10, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  32. ^ "Spring 2018 Alberta Election Poll" (Press release). Leger. June 27, 2018. Archived from the original on March 21, 2019. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  33. ^ "NDP Gain On United Conservatives Thanks To Kinder Morgan Support" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. April 26, 2018. Archived from the original on May 6, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  34. ^ De Cillia, Brooks (April 28, 2018). "United Conservative Party on track to win big in Alberta, says poll". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 11, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  35. ^ "Albertan's Views on Stephen Mandel's Alberta Party" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. February 2018. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 8, 2018. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  36. ^ "Alberta Voter Intention Numbers" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. January 24, 2018. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  37. ^ "United Conservative Party Ahead of Rivals in Alberta's Political Scene" (Press release). Insights West. November 27, 2017. Archived from the original on November 9, 2020. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  38. ^ "Alberta's Political Landscape" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. November 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 1, 2017. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  39. ^ "Alberta Provincial Politics – Vote Intention" (PDF) (Press release). Lethbridge College. October 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2017. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  40. ^ "Alberta's Public Affairs Monitor" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. September 8, 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 11, 2017. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  41. ^ "Conservative Summer of Love" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. August 1, 2017. Archived from the original on February 12, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  42. ^ "Kenney PCs in Stasis" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. April 28, 2017. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  43. ^ "Wildrose Leads; Most Favour Merger" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. February 21, 2017. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  44. ^ "Alberta Government Improves on Energy and Pipeline Management" (Press release). Insights West. December 7, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  45. ^ Henry, Marc (November 2016). "Eye on Alberta: Alberta's Public Affairs Monitor" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 10, 2017. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  46. ^ "Alberta Political Scene" (PDF) (Press release). Innovative Research Group. October 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  47. ^ Ellis, Faron (October 2016). "Alberta Provincial Politics Vote Intention & Unite the Right" (PDF) (Press release). Lethbridge College. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 20, 2016. Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  48. ^ "Kenney Leadership Bid Splits Views in Alberta" (Press release). Insights West. July 14, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  49. ^ "Wildrose leads in latest opinion poll". Calgary Sun. May 12, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  50. ^ Henry, Marc (April 2016). "ThinkHQ/Metro News Alberta's Political Landscape" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  51. ^ "43% Disapprove of Alberta Budget" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. February 6, 2016. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  52. ^ Henry, Marc (December 2015). "Eye on Alberta The Provincial Political Horserace" (PDF) (Press release). ThinkHQ Public Affairs. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 6, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  53. ^ "Sizeable Majority of Albertans Concerned About Economic Issues" (Press release). Insights West. November 12, 2015. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  54. ^ "43% Disapprove of Alberta Budget" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. November 2, 2015. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  55. ^ "Battleground Edmonton" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. October 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  56. ^ "Wildrose Leads Over Notley NDP" (Press release). Mainstreet Research. July 3, 2015. Archived from the original on May 3, 2021. Retrieved May 3, 2021.

Bibliography

Election related reports

External links