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2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

A purple to slightly blue Northeastern state partly within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has not backed a Republican for president by double digits since 1972, when 49-state landslide winner Richard Nixon won it by nearly 20 points; and the last Republican to win the state's electoral votes twice was Ronald Reagan. Between 1992 and 2012, Pennsylvania voted Democratic in every presidential election, although doing so by single-digit margins in each of them apart from Barack Obama's 10.31% victory in 2008. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump (whose home state was neighboring New York in said cycle) narrowly carried the state by 0.72% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democrat Nominee Joe Biden by 1.18% as the latter defeated the former nationwide. Pennsylvania is considered to be a critical swing state in 2024. Most major news organizations mark it as a tossup.[2][better source needed]

Voting law changes

In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[3] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.[4]

General election

Trump assassination attempt

On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer died and two others were critically injured.[5]

Predictions

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein


Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Republican primary

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
  6. ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
  7. ^ a b c "Would not vote" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
  9. ^ "Other" with 3%
  10. ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
  11. ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
  12. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  13. ^ "Other" with 3%
  14. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  15. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  16. ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
  17. ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
  18. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 8%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
  21. ^ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  23. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  24. ^ a b "Other" with 4%
  25. ^ No Labels candidate
  26. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  27. ^ Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
  28. ^ Lars Mapstead with 1%
  29. ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
  30. ^ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  31. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
  32. ^ "Would not vote" with 1%
  33. ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  34. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 4%
  35. ^ "Someone else / third party" with 7%
  36. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  37. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  38. ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
  39. ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  3. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  7. ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  8. ^ a b Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  10. ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  11. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  14. ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  15. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  16. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
  17. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  19. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  20. ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  21. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  22. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  23. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  24. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  25. ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  26. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
  27. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  28. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  29. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance

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