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2024 British Columbia general election

The 2024 British Columbia general election will be held on or before October 19, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 43rd parliament of the Canadian province of British Columbia.

Redistribution of electoral districts

The Electoral Boundaries Commission was required to complete a redistribution of seats following the 2020 general election, and the government subsequently appointed commissioners in October 2021. Their final report was completed April 3, 2023.[1] An act was passed later that year, providing for a consequential increase in seats from 87 to 93, upon the next election.[2] The following changes were made:

  1. ^ From parts of Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Panorama and Surrey-Fleetwood.

Background

Section 23 of British Columbia's Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election.[3][4] The same section, though, makes the fixed election date subject to the lieutenant governor's prerogative to dissolve the Legislative Assembly as they see fit (in practice, on the advice of the province's premier or following a vote of non-confidence).[3][5]

Standings

Retiring incumbents

Withdrawal of BC United

On August 28, 2024, BC United's leader Kevin Falcon announced that the party would suspend its political campaigning. Falcon endorsed the BC Conservatives, saying "John Rustad and I haven't always agreed on everything, but one thing is clear: our province cannot take another four years of the NDP". Falcon noted that this was done to prevent vote splitting in competitive ridings.[37]

Mike Bernier (Peace River South) pointed out that Falcon, as leader, only had the power to withdraw the party from the forthcoming contest, but could not do so on behalf of the individual candidates.[38] Elections BC confirmed that that was a correct interpretation of the elections law, and only the candidates could choose to withdraw or to stand as independent or unaffiliated on the ballot.[38] Several BCU candidates were openly considering accepting a Conservative nomination.[39] Bernier confirmed that he had spoken with Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano) about the possibility of several of the BCU candidates forming their own alliance or possible new party before the required registration deadline,[38] or even forming a party post-election, as Legislature rules recognize a party as long as it has at least two MLAs.[38]

At the time of BC United's withdrawal, the party had nominated candidates in 56 ridings.[40][e]

  = Incumbent MLA


As a result of some BC United candidates joining the Conservatives, there was a domino effect on some other Conservative candidates already nominated:

Marginal seats

In September 2024 the following seats were assessed as ones where parties were less than likely to win:

Timeline

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Candidates

Northern British Columbia

Prince George and the Cariboo

The Kootenays

Thompson, Okanagan, Shuswap and Boundary

Fraser Valley-Langley-Maple Ridge

Surrey

Richmond and Delta

Burnaby-New Westminster-Tri-Cities

Vancouver

North Shore-Sea to Sky-Sunshine Coast

Vancouver Island

Greater Victoria

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling and a 14-day average of polls (as of August 16, 2024)

Notes

  1. ^ Furstenau plans to run in Victoria-Beacon Hill in 2024.
  2. ^ Previously served from 2001 to 2013.
  3. ^ Elected as member of the NDP, resigned from caucus on March 6, 2024[28]
  4. ^ Previously served from 2009 to 2013.
  5. ^ The party website listed 57 candidates at the time of the withdrawal of the party, however, Dave Sidhu was still listed as a candidate in Abbotsford West despite dropping out as a candidate earlier in August.[41]

References

  1. ^ "Final Report" (PDF). Electoral Boundaries Commission. 2023.
  2. ^ Electoral Districts Act, S.B.C. 2023, c. 15
  3. ^ a b Constitution Act, s. 23.
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  9. ^ Zussman, Richard. "NEW - BC Finance Minister Katrine Conroy will not be running again in the next provincial election. The Kootenay West MLA has served the community for 19 years. #bcpoli". twitter.com. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  10. ^ Shaw, Rob. "NEW - BC Finance Minister @KatrineConroy is retiring and won't be running in her West Kootenay riding in the October election". twitter.com. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
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  150. ^ "Today, September 3rd 2024 Kevin Acton, previously declared candidate for BC United Party, announces his intention to contest the October 19, 2024 provincial election as an Independent candidate". Facebook. Vote Kevin Acton. September 3, 2024. Retrieved September 3, 2024.
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  154. ^ "It's with great pleasure that we welcome Pam Alexis as our BC NDP candidate in Abbotsford-Mission". X. BC NDP. June 22, 2024. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  155. ^ Gasper, Reann (February 7, 2024). "Reann Gasper Nominated In Abbotsford-Mission". Conservative Party of BC. Retrieved August 21, 2024.
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External links