Although Trump won the state, Biden's 41.53 percent vote share represented the highest for a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama's performance in 2008 and among the strongest swings to Biden, relative to Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016, in the nation. His 14.65-point defeat represented the first time since 1916, and only the second time ever, that Kansas voted more Democratic than neighboring Missouri, where his margin of defeat was 15.39 points.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Kansas came from white voters, who supported Trump by 59%–38%; white voters with college degrees, however, were tied. This result included a 64% showing for Trump among Protestants and a 74% showing among other Christians. Trump's best margin was 72% in rural areas, while Biden's was 52% in suburban counties.[4]
Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
On September 7, 2019, the Kansas Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to cancel their respective primaries and caucuses officially.[5] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[6][7] At its state convention held between January 31 and February 1, 2020, the state party voted to formally bind all 39 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[8][9]
Democratic primary
The Kansas Democratic primary was conducted entirely by mail. Votes were counted on May 2, 2020. Joe Biden was declared the winner.[10]
Trump won three of Kansas' four congressional districts.
Analysis
Biden's gains relative to Hillary Clinton were powered by significant improvement in Kansas' suburbs and college towns: he became the first Democrat to carry Johnson County, the state's most populous and home to Overland Park and Olathe, since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.[46] It was also the first since 1896 that Democrats received a majority in the county. Biden was also the first Democrat ever to win Riley County, anchored by the Fort Riley military installation and Kansas State University;[47] and the first to win Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka, since Bill Clinton's narrow plurality in 1992.[48]
While he failed to break the 56-year Republican winning streak in Sedgwick County, the second most populous in the state and home to the state's largest city Wichita, his 42.9 percent of the vote there was the strongest for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter received 46.5 percent of the vote in 1976.[49] Biden would also build upon Hillary Clinton's share (32.31%) and even break Carter's record at Seward County of 33.96%. At 34.62%, this was the highest percentage of votes a Democratic presidential candidate has won in the county since Lyndon B. Johnson won 46.14% in 1964. This was also the first election since the three-way contest of 1992 in which a Democratic candidate won at least five counties, along with it being the smallest margin of victory for a Republican nominee since George Bush in 1992.
Notes
^Votes which had all its 5 ranked vote-choices allocated towards eliminated candidates who did not reach the threshold of 15%.
^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c d eKey: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^Hawkins (G) and "Other candidate/write-in" with 1%
^"Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
^Includes "Refused"
^"Neither of the two candidates" with 11%
^"Someone else" with 4%
^Standard VI response
^Hawkins (G) with 1%
^If only Trump and Biden were candidates
^"Some other candidate" with 5%
^"Someone else" with 6%
^ a b"Someone else" with 3%
^ a b"Someone else" with 2%
Partisan clients
^Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
^ a bKeep Kansas Great PAC endorsed Marshall prior to this poll's sampling period
^Poll for EMILY's List, a Democratic PAC which seeks to elect pro-choice Democratic women to office
^"Voter turnout in United States elections". Ballotpedia. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^"Kansas Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
^Kinnard, Meg (September 7, 2019). "Nevada, SC, Kansas GOP drop presidential nomination votes". AP NEWS.
^Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". The Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
^Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
^"Kansas GOP won't hold a caucus in 2020". KAKE. September 6, 2019. Archived from the original on February 9, 2020. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
^"Kansas Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
^Hanna, John (May 3, 2020). "Joe Biden Wins Kansas Primary Conducted Exclusively By Mail". HuffPost. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
^"KSDEMS: 2020 Primary Results.xlsx". Google Docs. Kansas Democratic Party. Retrieved May 3, 2020.
^"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
^David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^"Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^"ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^"2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
^"2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
^Lowry, Bryan (November 8, 2020). "Johnson County shifted blue under Trump. Is the color durable or will it wash out?". Retrieved November 9, 2020.
^Pierce, Charles P. (November 9, 2020). "Down-Ballot Was Big Trouble for Democrats, But There Are Some Rainbows Out There". Retrieved December 3, 2020.
^"Letter to the editor: Some Kansas counties went for Biden". November 12, 2020. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
^"2020 Presidential General Election Results - Sedgwick County, KS". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
