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Invasión rusa de Ucrania

El 24 de febrero de 2022, Rusia invadió Ucrania en una importante escalada de la guerra ruso-ucraniana , que comenzó en 2014. La invasión, el mayor conflicto en Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial , [13] [14] [15] ha causado cientos de miles de bajas militares y decenas de miles de bajas civiles ucranianas . A partir de 2024, las tropas rusas ocupan aproximadamente el 20% de Ucrania . De una población de 41 millones, alrededor de 8 millones de ucranianos habían sido desplazados internamente y más de 8,2 millones habían huido del país en abril de 2023, creando la mayor crisis de refugiados de Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

A finales de 2021, Rusia concentró tropas cerca de las fronteras de Ucrania, pero negó cualquier plan de ataque. El 24 de febrero de 2022, el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin , anunció una " operación militar especial ", afirmando que era para apoyar a las repúblicas separatistas respaldadas por Rusia de Donetsk y Luhansk , cuyas fuerzas paramilitares habían estado luchando contra Ucrania en el conflicto del Donbás desde 2014. Putin abrazó puntos de vista irredentistas que desafiaban la legitimidad de Ucrania como estado, afirmó falsamente que Ucrania estaba gobernada por neonazis que perseguían a la minoría rusa y dijo que el objetivo de Rusia era " desmilitarizar y desnazificar " Ucrania. Se lanzaron ataques aéreos rusos y una invasión terrestre en un frente norte desde Bielorrusia hacia Kiev , un frente sur desde Crimea y un frente oriental desde el Donbás y hacia Járkov . Ucrania promulgó la ley marcial , ordenó una movilización general y rompió las relaciones diplomáticas con Rusia .

Las tropas rusas se retiraron del frente norte, incluidas las afueras de Kiev, en abril de 2022 tras encontrar desafíos logísticos y una fuerte resistencia. En los frentes sur y sureste, Rusia capturó Jersón en marzo y Mariúpol en mayo, esta última tras un asedio destructivo . Rusia lanzó una nueva ofensiva en el Donbás y continuó bombardeando objetivos militares y civiles alejados del frente, incluida la red energética durante los meses de invierno. A finales de 2022, Ucrania lanzó contraofensivas exitosas en el sur y el este . Poco después, Rusia anunció la anexión ilegal de cuatro óblasts parcialmente ocupados . En noviembre, Ucrania retomó partes del óblast de Jersón , incluida la ciudad de Jersón. En junio de 2023, Ucrania lanzó otra contraofensiva en el sureste, que a finales de año había fracasado y solo había recuperado pequeñas cantidades de territorio. Después de pequeños pero constantes avances de Rusia en el este de Ucrania en la primera mitad de 2024, Ucrania lanzó una incursión transfronteriza en el óblast de Kursk de Rusia en agosto de ese año.

Las perturbaciones relacionadas con la guerra en la agricultura y el transporte marítimo de Ucrania contribuyeron a una crisis alimentaria mundial , mientras que el extenso daño ambiental causado por el conflicto ha sido descrito como un ecocidio . Los ataques rusos a civiles han dado lugar a acusaciones de genocidio . [16] [17] [18] [19] La invasión fue recibida con una condena internacional generalizada . La Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas aprobó una resolución condenando la invasión y exigiendo una retirada total de Rusia en marzo de 2022. La Corte Internacional de Justicia ordenó a Rusia suspender las operaciones militares y el Consejo de Europa expulsó a Rusia. Muchos países impusieron sanciones a Rusia y su aliado Bielorrusia, y proporcionaron ayuda humanitaria y militar a Ucrania . Los estados bálticos y Polonia declararon a Rusia un estado terrorista . Se produjeron protestas en todo el mundo, y los manifestantes contra la guerra en Rusia fueron recibidos con arrestos masivos y una mayor censura de los medios . La Corte Penal Internacional (CPI) abrió una investigación sobre crímenes de guerra , crímenes contra la humanidad , secuestro de niños ucranianos y genocidio contra los ucranianos . La CPI emitió seis órdenes de arresto : contra Putin y Maria Lvova-Belova , y contra los oficiales militares Sergey Kobylash , Viktor Sokolov , Sergei Shoigu y Valery Gerasimov .

Fondo

Relaciones postsoviéticas

Tras la disolución de la Unión Soviética en diciembre de 1991, los nuevos estados independientes de la Federación Rusa y Ucrania mantuvieron relaciones cordiales. A cambio de garantías de seguridad, Ucrania firmó el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear en 1994, acordando desmantelar las armas nucleares que la ex URSS había dejado en Ucrania. [20] En ese momento, Rusia, el Reino Unido y los Estados Unidos acordaron en el Memorándum de Budapest defender la integridad territorial de Ucrania. [21] En 1999, Rusia firmó la Carta para la Seguridad Europea , afirmando el derecho de cada estado "a elegir o cambiar sus acuerdos de seguridad" y a unirse a alianzas. [22] En 2002, Putin dijo que las relaciones de Ucrania con la OTAN eran "un asunto de esos dos socios". [23]

Después de participar en la Guerra Civil de Georgia y en los conflictos militares en Osetia , Abjasia y Moldavia a principios de la década de 1990, las fuerzas rusas invadieron Georgia en agosto de 2008 y tomaron el control de las regiones separatistas de Abjasia y Osetia del Sur , demostrando la voluntad de Rusia de utilizar la fuerza militar para alcanzar sus objetivos políticos. [24] La administración estadounidense "fue acusada de apaciguamiento e ingenuidad" en su reacción a la invasión. [25]

Revolución ucraniana, intervención rusa en Crimea y Donbass

Ucrania, con Crimea anexada en el sur y dos repúblicas separatistas apoyadas por Rusia en el Donbás en el este hasta la invasión de 2022

En 2013, el parlamento de Ucrania aprobó por abrumadora mayoría la finalización de un acuerdo de asociación con la Unión Europea (UE). [26] Rusia había presionado a Ucrania para que lo rechazara. [27] El asesor del Kremlin, Sergei Glazyev , advirtió en septiembre de 2013 que si Ucrania firmaba el acuerdo de la UE, Rusia ya no reconocería las fronteras de Ucrania. [28] En noviembre, el presidente ucraniano Viktor Yanukovych se retiró repentinamente de la firma del acuerdo, [29] eligiendo en su lugar vínculos más estrechos con la Unión Económica Euroasiática liderada por Rusia . Esta retirada forzada desencadenó una ola de protestas conocida como Euromaidán , que culminó en la Revolución de la Dignidad en febrero de 2014. Yanukovych huyó y fue destituido del poder por el parlamento, terminando en Rusia.

Fuerzas separatistas apoyadas por Rusia durante la guerra en el Donbás en 2015

Soldados rusos sin insignias ocuparon el territorio ucraniano de Crimea y tomaron el Parlamento de Crimea . [30] Rusia anexó Crimea en marzo de 2014, después de un referéndum ampliamente disputado . Inmediatamente se produjeron disturbios prorrusos en las ciudades ucranianas de Donetsk y Luhansk . La guerra en el Donbás comenzó en abril de 2014 cuando separatistas armados respaldados por Rusia tomaron edificios del gobierno ucraniano y proclamaron la independencia de la República Popular de Donetsk y la República Popular de Luhansk . [31] [32] Las tropas rusas estuvieron directamente involucradas en estos conflictos. [33]

La anexión de Crimea y la guerra en el Donbás provocaron una ola de nacionalismo ruso . El analista Vladimir Socor calificó el discurso de Putin de 2014 tras la anexión como un "manifiesto del irredentismo de la Gran Rusia ". [34] Putin comenzó a referirse a " Novorossiya " (Nueva Rusia), un antiguo territorio imperial ruso que cubría gran parte del sur de Ucrania. [35] Las fuerzas respaldadas por Rusia estaban influenciadas por el neoimperialismo ruso y buscaron crear una nueva Novorossiya . [36] [37] Putin se refirió al precedente de la independencia de Kosovo y al bombardeo de Yugoslavia por parte de la OTAN como justificación para la anexión de Crimea y la guerra en el Donbás, [38] [39] [40] [41] mientras que los historiadores señalan las similitudes con el Anschluss de Austria por parte de la Alemania nazi en 1938. [42] [43]

Debido a la ocupación rusa de Crimea y su invasión del Donbás , el parlamento de Ucrania votó en diciembre de 2014 para eliminar la cláusula de neutralidad de la Constitución y buscar la membresía de Ucrania en la OTAN . [44] [45] Sin embargo, era imposible para Ucrania unirse a la OTAN en ese momento, ya que cualquier nación solicitante no debe tener "disputas territoriales externas no resueltas". [46] En 2016, el presidente de la Comisión Europea , Jean-Claude Juncker , dijo que tomaría entre 20 y 25 años para que Ucrania se una a la UE y la OTAN. [47]

La reunión del Formato de Normandía del 9 de diciembre de 2019 sería la primera y única reunión entre el presidente Zelenskyy y el presidente Putin. [48]

Las negociaciones comenzaron en 2014 y se alcanzaron los acuerdos de Minsk , firmados en septiembre de 2014 y febrero de 2015, con el objetivo de resolver el conflicto, pero los ceses del fuego y las negociaciones posteriores fracasaron repetidamente. [49]

Preludio

La intensificación de las operaciones militares rusas en torno a Ucrania a fecha del 3 de diciembre de 2021

En marzo y abril de 2021, Rusia tuvo una masiva concentración militar cerca de la frontera con Ucrania, [50] y nuevamente en Rusia y Bielorrusia a partir de octubre de 2021. [51] Miembros del gobierno ruso, incluido Putin, negaron repetidamente tener planes de invadir o atacar Ucrania, y las negaciones se emitieron hasta el día antes de la invasión. [52] [53] [54] Según se informa, la decisión de invadir Ucrania fue tomada por Putin y un pequeño grupo de halcones de guerra o siloviki en el círculo íntimo de Putin, incluido el asesor de seguridad nacional Nikolai Patrushev y el ministro de defensa Sergei Shoigu . [55] Los informes de una supuesta filtración de documentos del Servicio Federal de Seguridad ruso (FSB) por parte de fuentes de inteligencia estadounidenses dijeron que el FSB no estaba al tanto del plan de Putin de invadir. [56]

En julio de 2021, Putin publicó un ensayo " Sobre la unidad histórica de rusos y ucranianos ", en el que llamó a Ucrania "tierras históricamente rusas" y afirmó que "no hay base histórica" ​​para la "idea del pueblo ucraniano como una nación separada de los rusos". [57] [58]Días antes de la invasión, Putin afirmó que Ucrania nunca tuvo un "estado real" y que la Ucrania moderna era un error creado por los bolcheviques rusos . [59] El historiador estadounidense Timothy Snyder describió las ideas de Putin como imperialismo . [60] El periodista británico Edward Lucas lo describió como revisionismo histórico . Otros observadores encontraron que el liderazgo de Rusia tenía una visión distorsionada de Ucrania, así como de su propia historia, [61] y que estas distorsiones se propagaban a través del estado. [62]

Durante la segunda escalada, Rusia lanzó un ultimátum a Occidente, que incluía la obligación de la OTAN de poner fin a toda actividad en sus estados miembros de Europa del Este y prohibir a Ucrania o a cualquier otro estado ex soviético unirse a la alianza, [63] la implementación del alto el fuego de Minsk-2 y las garantías contra los despliegues militares en Ucrania. [64] El gobierno ruso dijo que la OTAN era una amenaza y advirtió de una respuesta militar si seguía una "línea agresiva". [65] Algunas de las demandas ya habían sido descartadas por la OTAN. Un alto funcionario estadounidense dijo que Estados Unidos estaba dispuesto a discutir las propuestas, pero agregó que había algunas "que los rusos saben que son inaceptables". [63] Los estados de Europa del Este se unieron voluntariamente a la OTAN por razones de seguridad, y la última vez que un país fronterizo con Rusia se había unido fue en 2004. Ucrania aún no había presentado la solicitud, y algunos miembros se mostraban cautelosos de permitirle unirse. [66] Prohibir que Ucrania se una iría en contra de la política de " puertas abiertas " de la OTAN y en contra de los tratados acordados por la propia Rusia. [67] El Secretario General de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, respondió que "Rusia no tiene voz ni voto" sobre la adhesión de Ucrania y "no tiene derecho a establecer una esfera de influencia para intentar controlar a sus vecinos". [68] La OTAN subrayó que es una alianza defensiva y que había cooperado con Rusia hasta que esta última se anexionó Crimea. [67] Ofreció mejorar la comunicación con Rusia y negociar límites a la colocación de misiles y ejercicios militares , siempre que Rusia retirara sus tropas de las fronteras de Ucrania, [69] pero Rusia no lo hizo.

Los líderes occidentales prometieron que se impondrían fuertes sanciones si Putin optaba por invadir en lugar de negociar. [70] El presidente francés Emmanuel Macron [71] y el canciller alemán Olaf Scholz se reunieron con Putin en febrero de 2022 para disuadirlo de una invasión. Según Scholz, Putin le dijo que Ucrania no debería ser un estado independiente. [72] Scholz le dijo al presidente ucraniano Volodymyr Zelenskyy que declarara a Ucrania un país neutral y renunciara a sus aspiraciones de unirse a la OTAN. Zelenskyy respondió que no se podía confiar en que Putin cumpliera con ese acuerdo. [73] Ucrania había sido un país neutral en 2014 cuando Rusia ocupó Crimea e invadió el Donbás . [74] [75] El 19 de febrero, Zelenskyy pronunció un discurso en la Conferencia de Seguridad de Múnich , pidiendo a las potencias occidentales que abandonaran su política de " apaciguamiento " hacia Moscú y dieran un plazo claro para que Ucrania pudiera unirse a la OTAN. [76] Como coinciden los analistas políticos Taras Kuzio y Vladimir Socor , "cuando Rusia tomó la decisión de invadir Ucrania, ese país estaba más alejado que nunca no sólo de ser miembro de la OTAN, sino de cualquier vía que pudiera llevar a la membresía". [64]

El anuncio de invasión de Putin

El 21 de febrero, Putin anunció que Rusia reconocía como Estados independientes los territorios de Ucrania bajo su control: la República Popular de Donetsk y la República Popular de Luhansk. Al día siguiente, Rusia anunció que enviaría tropas a esos territorios como "fuerzas de paz" [77] , y el Consejo de la Federación de Rusia autorizó el uso de la fuerza militar en el extranjero [78] .

Discurso de Putin a la nación el 24 de febrero de 2022. Minutos después del anuncio de Putin, comenzó la invasión.

Antes de las 5 am, hora de Kiev, el 24 de febrero, Putin, en otro discurso , anunció una " operación militar especial ", que "efectivamente declaró la guerra a Ucrania". [79] [80] Putin dijo que la operación era para "proteger al pueblo" de las repúblicas separatistas controladas por Rusia. Afirmó falsamente que habían "estado enfrentando humillación y genocidio perpetrados por el régimen de Kiev". [81] Putin dijo que Rusia estaba siendo amenazada: afirmó falsamente que los funcionarios del gobierno ucraniano eran neonazis bajo control occidental, que Ucrania estaba desarrollando armas nucleares y que una OTAN hostil estaba construyendo sus fuerzas e infraestructura militar en Ucrania. [82] Dijo que Rusia buscaba la "desmilitarización y desnazificación" de Ucrania, y abrazó puntos de vista que desafiaban la legitimidad del estado ucraniano. [83] [59] Putin dijo que no tenía planes de ocupar Ucrania y apoyaba el derecho del pueblo ucraniano a la autodeterminación . [82]

La invasión comenzó minutos después del discurso de Putin. [79]

Eventos

Regiones ucranianas anexadas por Rusia desde 2014 ( República Autónoma de Crimea y Sebastopol ) y 2022 (otras). La anexión de 2022 creó un puente terrestre estratégico entre Crimea y Rusia.

La invasión comenzó al amanecer del 24 de febrero. [79] [84] Fue descrito como el mayor ataque a un país europeo y la primera guerra a gran escala en Europa [85] desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Rusia lanzó un ataque simultáneo por tierra y aire. [86] [87] Los misiles rusos alcanzaron objetivos en toda Ucrania, [88] y las tropas rusas invadieron desde el norte, este y sur. [89] Rusia no declaró oficialmente la guerra. [90] Fue la mayor operación de armas combinadas de Rusia desde la Batalla de Berlín de la Unión Soviética en 1945. [ cita requerida ] Los combates comenzaron en el óblast de Luhansk a las 3:40 am hora de Kiev cerca de Milove en la frontera con Rusia. [91] Los principales ataques de infantería y tanques se lanzaron en cuatro puntas de lanza, creando un frente norte lanzado hacia Kiev desde Bielorrusia, un frente sur desde Crimea, un frente sureste desde el Donbas controlado por Rusia y un frente oriental desde Rusia hacia Járkov y Sumy . [92] Posteriormente, los vehículos rusos fueron marcados con un símbolo militar Z blanco (una letra no cirílica ), que se cree era una medida para evitar el fuego amigo . [93]

Inmediatamente después de que comenzara la invasión, Zelenskyy declaró la ley marcial en Ucrania en un primer discurso en video. [94] Esa misma noche, ordenó una movilización general de todos los varones ucranianos entre 18 y 60 años, [95] prohibiéndoles salir del país. [96] Según se informa, los mercenarios del Grupo Wagner y los kadyrovistas contratados por el Kremlin hicieron varios intentos de asesinar a Zelenskyy , incluida una operación que involucró a varios cientos de mercenarios destinados a infiltrarse en Kiev con el objetivo de matar al presidente ucraniano. [97] El gobierno ucraniano dijo que los funcionarios pacifistas dentro del FSB de Rusia compartieron los planes con ellos. [98] Zelenskiy pareció desafiante en su primer mensaje de video y en el siguiente , mostrando en otro el 25 de febrero que él y su gabinete todavía están en Kiev. El 26 de febrero, la OTAN se reunió y sus países prometieron ayuda militar para Ucrania y el 27 de febrero Alemania calificó la invasión como un hito histórico. [99] Ese mismo día por la tarde Putin puso en alerta la disuasión nuclear de Rusia. [100]

La invasión rusa se encontró inesperadamente con una feroz resistencia ucraniana. [101] En Kiev, Rusia no logró tomar la ciudad y fue rechazada en las batallas de Irpin , Hostomel y Bucha . Los rusos intentaron rodear la capital, pero sus defensores, al mando de Oleksandr Syrskyi, mantuvieron su posición, utilizando eficazmente misiles antitanque Javelin occidentales y misiles antiaéreos Stinger para debilitar las líneas de suministro rusas y detener la ofensiva. [102]

En el frente sur, las fuerzas rusas habían capturado la capital regional de Jersón el 2 de marzo. Una columna de tanques y vehículos blindados rusos fue emboscada el 9 de marzo en Brovary y sufrió fuertes pérdidas que los obligaron a retirarse. [103] El ejército ruso adoptó tácticas de asedio en el frente occidental alrededor de las ciudades clave de Chernihiv, Sumy y Kharkiv, pero no logró capturarlas debido a la dura resistencia y los reveses logísticos. [104] En el óblast de Mykolaiv , las fuerzas rusas avanzaron hasta Voznesensk , pero fueron repelidas y empujadas hacia el sur de Mykolaiv. El 25 de marzo, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso declaró que la primera etapa de la "operación militar" en Ucrania estaba "generalmente completa", que las fuerzas militares ucranianas habían sufrido graves pérdidas y que el ejército ruso ahora se concentraría en la "liberación de Donbass ". [105] La "primera etapa" de la invasión se llevó a cabo en cuatro frentes, incluido uno hacia el oeste de Kiev desde Bielorrusia por el Distrito Militar Oriental de Rusia , que comprendía los 29.º , 35.º y 36.º Ejércitos de Armas Combinadas . Un segundo eje, desplegado hacia el este de Kiev desde Rusia por el Distrito Militar Central (frente noreste), comprendía el 41.º Ejército de Armas Combinadas y el 2.º Ejército de Armas Combinadas de la Guardia . [106]

Un tercer eje fue desplegado hacia Járkov por el Distrito Militar Occidental (frente oriental), con el 1.er Ejército de Tanques de la Guardia y el 20.º Ejército de Armas Combinadas . Un cuarto frente meridional originado en la Crimea ocupada y el óblast ruso de Rostov con un eje oriental hacia Odesa y un área occidental de operaciones hacia Mariúpol fue abierto por el Distrito Militar Sur , incluyendo el 58.º , 49.º y 8.º Ejército de Armas Combinadas , este último también al mando del 1.º y 2.º Cuerpo de Ejército de las fuerzas separatistas rusas en el Donbás . [106] El 7 de abril, las tropas rusas desplegadas en el frente norte por el Distrito Militar Oriental de Rusia se retiraron de la ofensiva de Kiev, según se informa para reabastecerse y redesplegarse en la región del Donbás en un esfuerzo por reforzar la renovada invasión del sureste de Ucrania. El frente nororiental, incluido el Distrito Militar Central, se retiró de manera similar para reabastecerse y redesplegarse en el sureste de Ucrania. [106] [107] El 26 de abril, delegados de los EE. UU. y 40 naciones aliadas se reunieron en la base aérea de Ramstein en Alemania para discutir la formación de una coalición que proporcionaría apoyo económico además de suministros militares y reacondicionamiento a Ucrania. [108] Después del discurso del Día de la Victoria de Putin a principios de mayo, la directora de Inteligencia Nacional de los EE. UU., Avril Haines, dijo que no se debería esperar una resolución a corto plazo de la invasión. [109]

El presidente Volodymyr Zelensky con miembros del ejército ucraniano el 18 de junio de 2022

La dependencia de Ucrania del equipamiento suministrado por Occidente limitó la eficacia operativa, ya que los países proveedores temían que Ucrania utilizara material fabricado en Occidente para atacar objetivos en Rusia. [110] Los expertos militares no estaban de acuerdo sobre el futuro del conflicto; algunos sugirieron que Ucrania debería intercambiar territorio por paz, [111] mientras que otros creían que Ucrania podría mantener su resistencia debido a las pérdidas rusas. [112]

El 30 de mayo, las disparidades entre la artillería rusa y la ucraniana eran evidentes, ya que la artillería ucraniana estaba ampliamente superada, tanto en alcance como en número. [110] En respuesta a la indicación del presidente estadounidense Joe Biden de que se proporcionaría artillería mejorada a Ucrania, Putin dijo que Rusia ampliaría su frente de invasión para incluir nuevas ciudades en Ucrania. En aparente represalia, Putin ordenó un ataque con misiles contra Kiev el 6 de junio después de no atacar directamente la ciudad durante varias semanas. [113] El 10 de junio de 2022, el subdirector del SBU Vadym Skibitsky declaró que durante la campaña de Severodonetsk, las líneas del frente eran donde se decidiría el futuro de la invasión: "Esta es una guerra de artillería ahora, y estamos perdiendo en términos de artillería. Todo depende ahora de lo que [Occidente] nos dé. Ucrania tiene una pieza de artillería por cada 10 o 15 piezas de artillería rusa. Nuestros socios occidentales nos han dado alrededor del 10% de lo que tienen". [114]

El 29 de junio, la agencia Reuters informó que la directora de inteligencia de Estados Unidos, Avril Haines, en una actualización de las evaluaciones de inteligencia anteriores de Estados Unidos sobre la invasión rusa, dijo que las agencias de inteligencia de Estados Unidos están de acuerdo en que la invasión continuará "por un período prolongado de tiempo... En resumen, el panorama sigue siendo bastante sombrío y la actitud de Rusia hacia Occidente se está endureciendo". [115] El 5 de julio, la BBC informó que la extensa destrucción causada por la invasión rusa causaría un inmenso daño financiero a la economía de reconstrucción de Ucrania, y el Primer Ministro ucraniano, Denys Shmyhal, dijo a las naciones en una conferencia de reconstrucción en Suiza que Ucrania necesita 750 mil millones de dólares para un plan de recuperación y que los oligarcas rusos deberían contribuir con el costo. [116]

Invasión inicial (24 de febrero – 7 de abril)

Mapa animado de la invasión rusa del 24 de febrero al 7 de abril de 2022

La invasión comenzó el 24 de febrero, desde Bielorrusia, contra Kiev y, desde el noreste, contra la ciudad de Járkov. El frente sudoriental se dividió en dos puntas de lanza independientes, desde Crimea y desde el sureste contra Luhansk y Donetsk.

Kyiv y el frente norte

El Antonov An-225 Mriya , el avión más grande jamás construido, fue destruido durante la Batalla del Aeropuerto Antonov .

Los esfuerzos rusos para capturar Kiev incluyeron un avance de prueba el 24 de febrero, desde Bielorrusia hacia el sur a lo largo de la orilla oeste del río Dniéper . La aparente intención era rodear la ciudad desde el oeste, con el apoyo de dos ejes de ataque separados desde Rusia a lo largo de la orilla este del Dniéper: el occidental en Chernihiv y el oriental en Sumy . Es probable que estos tuvieran la intención de rodear Kiev desde el noreste y el este. [86] [87]

Rusia intentó tomar Kiev rápidamente, con la infiltración de los Spetsnaz en la ciudad apoyada por operaciones aerotransportadas y un rápido avance mecanizado desde el norte, pero fracasó. [117] [118] Estados Unidos se puso en contacto con Zelenski y se ofreció a ayudarlo a huir del país, no fuera que el ejército ruso intentara secuestrarlo o matarlo al tomar Kiev; Zelenski respondió que "la lucha está aquí; necesito municiones, no un transporte". [119] El Washington Post , que describió la cita como "una de las líneas más citadas de la invasión rusa", no estaba completamente seguro de la exactitud del comentario. El reportero Glenn Kessler dijo que provenía de "una sola fuente, pero en la superficie parece ser buena". [120] Las fuerzas rusas que avanzaban sobre Kiev desde Bielorrusia obtuvieron el control de la ciudad fantasma de Chernóbil . [121] Las Fuerzas Aerotransportadas Rusas intentaron apoderarse de dos aeródromos clave cerca de Kiev, lanzando un asalto aéreo sobre el Aeropuerto Antonov , [122] y un aterrizaje similar en Vasylkiv , cerca de la Base Aérea de Vasylkiv , el 26 de febrero. [123]

A principios de marzo, los avances rusos a lo largo del lado oeste del Dniéper se vieron limitados por las defensas ucranianas. [87] [86] Al 5 de marzo, un gran convoy ruso , al parecer de 64 kilómetros (40 millas) de largo, había avanzado poco hacia Kiev. [124] El grupo de expertos con sede en Londres Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) evaluó los avances rusos desde el norte y el este como "estancados". [125] Los avances desde Chernihiv se detuvieron en gran medida cuando comenzó un asedio allí . Las fuerzas rusas continuaron avanzando sobre Kiev desde el noroeste, capturando Bucha , Hostomel y Vorzel el 5 de marzo, [126] [127] aunque Irpin seguía siendo disputado al 9 de marzo. [128] Para el 11 de marzo, el largo convoy se había dispersado en gran medida y se había puesto a cubierto. [129] El 16 de marzo, las fuerzas ucranianas comenzaron una contraofensiva para repeler a las fuerzas rusas. [130] Incapaces de lograr una victoria rápida en Kiev, las fuerzas rusas cambiaron su estrategia a bombardeos indiscriminados y guerra de asedio . [131] [132] El 25 de marzo, una contraofensiva ucraniana retomó varias ciudades al este y oeste de Kiev, incluida Makariv . [133] [134] Las tropas rusas en el área de Bucha se retiraron al norte a fines de marzo. Las fuerzas ucranianas entraron en la ciudad el 1 de abril. [135] Ucrania dijo que había recuperado toda la región alrededor de Kiev, incluidos Irpin, Bucha y Hostomel, y descubrió evidencia de crímenes de guerra en Bucha . [136] El 6 de abril, el secretario general de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, dijo que la "retracción, reabastecimiento y redespliegue" ruso de sus tropas del área de Kiev debería interpretarse como una expansión de los planes de Putin para Ucrania, al redesplegar y concentrar sus fuerzas en el este de Ucrania. [107] Kiev estuvo, en general, libre de ataques, salvo algunos ataques con misiles aislados. Uno de ellos se produjo mientras el Secretario General de las Naciones Unidas, António Guterres, estaba de visita en Kiev el 28 de abril para hablar con Zelensky sobre los supervivientes del asedio de Mariupol. Una persona murió y varias resultaron heridas en el ataque. [137]

El presidente ruso , Vladimir Putin, se reunió con el ministro de Defensa ruso, Sergei Shoigu, en abril de 2022, después de la derrota de Rusia en la batalla de Kiev

Frente noreste

Las fuerzas rusas avanzaron hacia el óblast de Chernihiv el 24 de febrero, sitiando su capital administrativa cuatro días después de los combates . El 25 de febrero, las fuerzas ucranianas perdieron el control de Konotop . [138] [139] Mientras se producían combates callejeros en la ciudad de Sumy , a tan solo 35 kilómetros (22 millas) de la frontera ruso-ucraniana, las fuerzas ucranianas afirmaron el 28 de febrero que 100 vehículos blindados rusos habían sido destruidos y docenas de soldados capturados tras un ataque con artillería y drones Bayraktar TB2 contra una gran columna rusa cerca de Lebedyn en el óblast de Sumy . [140] Las fuerzas rusas también atacaron Okhtyrka , desplegando armas termobáricas . [141]

El 4 de marzo, Frederick Kagan escribió que el eje Sumy era entonces "la avenida rusa más exitosa y peligrosa para avanzar sobre Kiev", y comentó que la geografía favorecía los avances mecanizados ya que el terreno "es plano y escasamente poblado, ofreciendo pocas buenas posiciones defensivas". [86] Viajando por las carreteras, las fuerzas rusas llegaron a Brovary , un suburbio oriental de Kiev, el 4 de marzo. [87] [86] El Pentágono confirmó el 6 de abril que el ejército ruso había abandonado el óblast de Chernihiv , pero el óblast de Sumy seguía en disputa. [142] El 7 de abril, el gobernador del óblast de Sumy dijo que las tropas rusas se habían ido, pero habían dejado atrás explosivos manipulados y otros peligros. [143]

Frente sur

Un BMP-3 ruso destruido cerca de Mariupol, 7 de marzo de 2022

El 24 de febrero, las fuerzas rusas tomaron el control del Canal del Norte de Crimea , lo que permitió a Crimea obtener agua del Dniéper , que había estado cortado desde 2014. [144] El 26 de febrero, comenzó el asedio de Mariúpol cuando el ataque se trasladó al este uniéndose al Donbás en poder de los separatistas. [141] [145] En el camino, las fuerzas rusas entraron en Berdiansk y lo capturaron . [146] El 25 de febrero, unidades rusas de la RPD estaban luchando cerca de Pavlopil mientras avanzaban hacia Mariúpol. [147] Al anochecer, la Armada rusa comenzó un asalto anfibio en la costa del Mar de Azov a 70 kilómetros (43 millas) al oeste de Mariúpol. Un funcionario de defensa estadounidense dijo que las fuerzas rusas estaban desplegando miles de marines desde esta cabeza de playa . [148]

El 22.º Cuerpo de Ejército ruso se acercó a la central nuclear de Zaporizhia el 26 de febrero [149] y sitió Enerhodar . Se inició un incendio, [150] [151] pero el ejército ucraniano dijo que el equipo esencial no sufrió daños. [152] Un tercer grupo de ataque ruso procedente de Crimea se desplazó al noroeste y capturó el puente sobre el Dniéper. [153] El 2 de marzo, las tropas rusas tomaron Jersón ; ésta fue la primera ciudad importante en caer ante las fuerzas rusas. [154] Las tropas rusas avanzaron sobre Mykolaiv y la atacaron dos días después. Fueron repelidas por las fuerzas ucranianas. [155]

Tras los nuevos ataques con misiles del 14 de marzo en Mariupol, el gobierno ucraniano afirmó que habían muerto más de 2.500 personas. [156] Para el 18 de marzo, Mariupol estaba completamente rodeada y los combates alcanzaron el centro de la ciudad, obstaculizando los esfuerzos para evacuar a los civiles. [157] El 20 de marzo, una escuela de arte que albergaba a unas 400 personas fue destruida por las bombas rusas . [158] Los rusos exigieron la rendición, y los ucranianos se negaron. [92] [159] El 27 de marzo, la viceprimera ministra ucraniana Olha Stefanishyna dijo que "más del 85 por ciento de toda la ciudad está destruida". [160]

Putin le dijo a Emmanuel Macron en una llamada telefónica el 29 de marzo que el bombardeo de Mariupol solo terminaría cuando los ucranianos se rindieran. [161] El 1 de abril, las tropas rusas negaron el paso seguro a Mariupol a 50 autobuses enviados por las Naciones Unidas para evacuar a los civiles, mientras continuaban las conversaciones de paz en Estambul. [162] El 3 de abril, tras la retirada de las fuerzas rusas de Kiev, Rusia amplió su ataque al sur de Ucrania más al oeste, con bombardeos y ataques contra Odesa, Mykolaiv y la central nuclear de Zaporizhia. [163] [164]

Frente oriental

Bombardeo ruso en las afueras de Járkov, 1 de marzo de 2022

En el este, las tropas rusas intentaron capturar Járkov , a menos de 35 kilómetros de la frontera rusa, [165] y encontraron una fuerte resistencia ucraniana. El 25 de febrero, la base aérea de Millerovo fue atacada por fuerzas militares ucranianas con misiles OTR-21 Tochka , que según funcionarios ucranianos, destruyeron varios aviones de la Fuerza Aérea Rusa y provocaron un incendio. [166] El 1 de marzo, Denis Pushilin , jefe de la RPD, anunció que las fuerzas de la RPD habían rodeado casi por completo la ciudad de Volnovakha . [167] El 2 de marzo, las fuerzas rusas fueron repelidas de Sievierodonetsk durante un ataque contra la ciudad . [168] El mismo día, las fuerzas ucranianas iniciaron una contraofensiva en Horlivka , [169] controlada por la RPD. [170] Izium fue capturada por las fuerzas rusas el 1 de abril [171] después de una batalla de un mes. [172]

El 25 de marzo, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso dijo que intentaría ocupar las principales ciudades del este de Ucrania. [173] El 31 de marzo, PBS News informó de nuevos bombardeos y ataques con misiles en Járkov, tan malos o peores que antes, mientras se reanudaban las conversaciones de paz con Rusia en Estambul. [174]

En medio del intenso bombardeo ruso de Járkov el 31 de marzo, Rusia informó de un ataque con helicóptero contra un depósito de suministro de petróleo aproximadamente a 35 kilómetros (22 millas) al norte de la frontera en Bélgorod , y acusó a Ucrania del ataque. [175] Ucrania negó la responsabilidad. [176] El 7 de abril, la renovada concentración de tropas de invasión rusas y divisiones de tanques alrededor de las ciudades de Izium, Sloviansk y Kramatorsk llevó a los funcionarios del gobierno ucraniano a aconsejar a los residentes restantes cerca de la frontera oriental de Ucrania que evacuaran al oeste de Ucrania en un plazo de 2 a 3 días, dada la ausencia de armas y municiones previamente prometidas a Ucrania para entonces. [177]

Frente Sureste (8 de abril – 5 de septiembre)

Mapa animado de la invasión rusa del 7 de abril al 5 de septiembre de 2022

El 17 de abril, el avance ruso en el frente sudoriental parecía verse obstaculizado por las fuerzas ucranianas opuestas en la gran y fuertemente fortificada fábrica de acero de Azovstal y la zona circundante en Mariupol. [178]

El 19 de abril, The New York Times confirmó que Rusia había lanzado un frente de invasión renovado al que se refirió como un "asalto oriental" a lo largo de un frente de 480 kilómetros (300 millas) que se extendía desde Járkov hasta Donetsk y Luhansk, con ataques simultáneos con misiles nuevamente dirigidos a Kiev en el norte y Lviv en el oeste de Ucrania. [179] Al 30 de abril, un funcionario de la OTAN describió los avances rusos como "desiguales" y "menores". [180] Un funcionario anónimo de Defensa de Estados Unidos calificó la ofensiva rusa de "muy tibia", "mínima en el mejor de los casos" y "anémica". [181] En junio de 2022, el portavoz jefe del Ministerio de Defensa ruso, Igor Konashenkov, reveló que las tropas rusas estaban divididas entre los Grupos de Ejércitos "Centro" comandado por el coronel general Aleksander Lapin y "Sur" comandado por el general de ejército Sergey Surovikin . [182] El 20 de julio, Lavrov anunció que Rusia respondería al aumento de la ayuda militar que Ucrania recibía del exterior justificando la expansión de su operación militar especial para incluir objetivos en las regiones de Zaporizhia y Kherson . [183]

Las Fuerzas Terrestres Rusas comenzaron a reclutar batallones de voluntarios de las regiones en junio de 2022 para crear un nuevo 3er Cuerpo de Ejército dentro del Distrito Militar Occidental, con una fuerza planificada estimada en 15.500-60.000 efectivos. [184] Sus unidades se desplegaron en el frente en la época de la contraofensiva del 9 de septiembre en la región de Járkov , a tiempo para unirse a la retirada rusa, dejando atrás tanques, vehículos de combate de infantería y transportes de personal: el 3er Cuerpo de Ejército "se desvaneció" según Forbes , teniendo poco o ningún impacto en el campo de batalla junto con otras fuerzas irregulares. [185]

Caída de Mariupol

El 13 de abril, las fuerzas rusas intensificaron su ataque contra la fábrica de hierro y acero Azovstal en Mariupol y el personal ucraniano restante que la defendía. [186] Para el 17 de abril, las fuerzas rusas habían rodeado la fábrica. El primer ministro ucraniano Denys Shmyhal dijo que los soldados ucranianos habían prometido ignorar el ultimátum renovado de rendirse y luchar hasta la última alma. [178] El 20 de abril, Putin dijo que el asedio de Mariupol podía considerarse tácticamente completo, ya que los 500 soldados ucranianos atrincherados en búnkeres dentro de la fábrica de hierro Azovstal y los aproximadamente 1.000 civiles ucranianos estaban completamente aislados de cualquier tipo de ayuda. [187]

El 28 de abril, tras reuniones consecutivas con Putin y Zelensky, el Secretario General de la ONU, Guterres, dijo que intentaría organizar una evacuación de emergencia de los supervivientes de Azovstal de conformidad con las garantías que había recibido de Putin en su visita al Kremlin. [188] El 30 de abril, las tropas rusas permitieron a los civiles salir bajo la protección de la ONU. [189] El 3 de mayo, tras permitir que unos 100 civiles ucranianos salieran de la fábrica de acero de Azovstal, las tropas rusas reanudaron el bombardeo de la fábrica de acero. [190] El 6 de mayo, The Daily Telegraph informó de que Rusia había utilizado bombas termobáricas contra los soldados ucranianos restantes, que habían perdido el contacto con el gobierno de Kiev; en sus últimas comunicaciones, Zelensky autorizó al comandante de la fábrica de acero sitiada a rendirse según fuera necesario bajo la presión de los crecientes ataques rusos. [191] El 7 de mayo, Associated Press informó de que todos los civiles fueron evacuados de la fábrica de acero de Azovstal al final del alto el fuego de tres días. [192]

Un hospital infantil en Mariupol tras un ataque aéreo ruso

Después de que los últimos civiles fueran evacuados de los búnkeres de Azovstal, casi dos mil soldados ucranianos permanecieron atrincherados allí, 700 de ellos heridos. Pudieron comunicar una petición para que se abriera un corredor militar para evacuar, ya que esperaban una ejecución sumaria si se rendían a las fuerzas rusas. [193] El 8 de mayo, Ukrainska Pravda informó sobre informes de disidencia dentro de las tropas ucranianas en Azovstal, que indicaban que el comandante de los marines ucranianos asignados para defender los búnkeres de Azovstal hizo una adquisición no autorizada de tanques, municiones y personal, salió de la posición allí y huyó. Los soldados restantes hablaron de una posición defensiva debilitada en Azovstal como resultado, lo que permitió el avance de las líneas de ataque rusas. [194] Ilia Somolienko , comandante adjunto de las tropas ucranianas restantes atrincheradas en Azovstal, dijo: "Básicamente, aquí somos hombres muertos. La mayoría de nosotros lo sabemos y es por eso que luchamos tan valientemente". [195]

El 16 de mayo, el Estado Mayor ucraniano anunció que la guarnición de Mariupol había "cumplido su misión de combate" y que habían comenzado las evacuaciones finales de la fábrica de acero de Azovstal. El ejército dijo que 264 miembros del servicio fueron evacuados a Olenivka bajo control ruso, mientras que 53 de ellos que estaban "gravemente heridos" habían sido llevados a un hospital en Novoazovsk también controlado por fuerzas rusas. [196] [197] Después de la evacuación del personal ucraniano de Azovstal, las fuerzas rusas y de la RPD controlaron completamente todas las áreas de Mariupol. El final de la batalla también puso fin al asedio de Mariupol. El secretario de prensa de Rusia, Dmitry Peskov, dijo que el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, había garantizado que los combatientes que se rindieron serían tratados "de acuerdo con los estándares internacionales", mientras que el presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, dijo en un discurso que "el trabajo de traer a los muchachos a casa continúa, y este trabajo necesita delicadeza y tiempo". Algunos destacados legisladores rusos pidieron al gobierno que denegara el intercambio de prisioneros por miembros del Regimiento Azov . [198]

Caída de Sievierodonetsk y Lysychansk

Control militar alrededor del Donbás a partir del 24 de marzo de 2023: en rosa se destacan las áreas controladas por la DNR, la LNR y Rusia, y en amarillo las áreas controladas por el gobierno ucraniano.

El 8 de abril, Rusia lanzó un ataque con misiles contra la estación de tren de Kramatorsk, en la ciudad de Kramatorsk, en el que, según se informa, murieron al menos 52 personas [199] y resultaron heridas entre 87 y 300 [200]. El 11 de abril, Zelenskyy dijo que Ucrania esperaba una nueva e importante ofensiva rusa en el este. [201] Los funcionarios estadounidenses dijeron que Rusia se había retirado o había sido rechazada en otras partes de Ucrania y, por lo tanto, estaba preparando una retracción, reabastecimiento y redespliegue de divisiones de infantería y tanques en el frente del sureste de Ucrania. [202] [203] Los satélites militares fotografiaron extensos convoyes rusos de infantería y unidades mecanizadas que se desplegaban hacia el sur desde Járkov hasta Izium el 11 de abril, aparentemente como parte del redespliegue ruso planeado de sus tropas del noreste al frente sureste de la invasión. [204]

El 18 de abril, cuando Mariupol estaba casi totalmente tomada por las fuerzas rusas, el gobierno ucraniano anunció que la segunda fase de la invasión reforzada de las regiones de Donetsk, Luhansk y Kharkiv se había intensificado con fuerzas de invasión ampliadas que ocupaban el Donbass. [205]

El 22 de mayo, la BBC informó que después de la caída de Mariupol, Rusia había intensificado las ofensivas en Luhansk y Donetsk mientras concentraba los ataques con misiles y el intenso fuego de artillería en Sievierodonetsk, la ciudad más grande bajo control ucraniano en la provincia de Luhansk. [206]

El 23 de mayo, se informó de que las fuerzas rusas entraron en la ciudad de Lyman , capturando por completo la ciudad el 26 de mayo. [207] [208] Se informó de que las fuerzas ucranianas abandonaron Sviatohirsk . [209] El 24 de mayo, las fuerzas rusas capturaron la ciudad de Svitlodarsk . [210] El 30 de mayo, Reuters informó de que las tropas rusas habían violado las afueras de Sievierodonetsk. [211] El 2 de junio, The Washington Post informó de que Sievierodonetsk estaba al borde de la capitulación ante la ocupación rusa, con más del 80 por ciento de la ciudad en manos de las tropas rusas. [212] El 3 de junio, las fuerzas ucranianas habrían iniciado un contraataque en Sievierodonetsk. El 4 de junio, fuentes del gobierno ucraniano afirmaron que el 20% o más de la ciudad había sido recapturada. [213]

El 12 de junio, se informó de que posiblemente hasta 800 civiles ucranianos (según estimaciones ucranianas) y entre 300 y 400 soldados (según fuentes rusas) fueron sitiados en la fábrica química Azot en Severodonetsk. [214] [215] Con las defensas ucranianas de Severodonetsk vacilando, las tropas de invasión rusas comenzaron a intensificar su ataque sobre la ciudad vecina de Lysychansk como su siguiente ciudad objetivo en la invasión. [216] El 20 de junio se informó de que las tropas rusas seguían reforzando su control sobre Severodonetsk capturando pueblos y aldeas circundantes que rodeaban la ciudad, más recientemente el pueblo de Metelkine. [217]

El 24 de junio, la CNN informó que, en medio de las continuas tácticas de tierra arrasada aplicadas por las tropas rusas que avanzaban, las fuerzas armadas de Ucrania recibieron la orden de evacuar Severodonetsk; varios cientos de civiles que se refugiaron en la planta química Azot fueron abandonados en la retirada, y algunos compararon su difícil situación con la de los civiles en las acerías Azovstal en Mariupol en mayo. [218] El 3 de julio, la CBS anunció que el Ministerio de Defensa ruso afirmó que la ciudad de Lysychansk había sido capturada y ocupada por fuerzas rusas. [219] El 4 de julio, The Guardian informó que después de la caída del óblast de Luhansk, las tropas de invasión rusas continuarían su invasión en el óblast adyacente de Donetsk para atacar las ciudades de Sloviansk y Bakhmut . [220]

Frente de Járkov

La zona residencial de Saltivka después de la batalla de Járkov el 19 de mayo de 2022

El 14 de abril, según se informa, las tropas ucranianas volaron un puente entre Járkov e Izium utilizado por las fuerzas rusas para reubicar tropas en Izium, lo que obstaculizó el convoy ruso. [221]

El 5 de mayo, David Axe, escribiendo para Forbes, declaró que el ejército ucraniano había concentrado sus 4.ª y 17.ª Brigadas de Tanques y la 95.ª Brigada de Asalto Aéreo alrededor de Izium para una posible acción de retaguardia contra las tropas rusas desplegadas en el área; Axe agregó que la otra concentración importante de las fuerzas de Ucrania alrededor de Járkov incluía las 92.ª y 93.ª Brigadas Mecanizadas que también podrían desplegarse para una acción de retaguardia contra las tropas rusas alrededor de Járkov o unirse con las tropas ucranianas que se estaban desplegando simultáneamente alrededor de Izium. [222]

El 13 de mayo, la BBC informó que las tropas rusas en Járkov estaban siendo replegadas y redistribuidas a otros frentes en Ucrania tras los avances de las tropas ucranianas en las ciudades circundantes y en la propia Járkov, lo que incluyó la destrucción de puentes de pontones estratégicos construidos por las tropas rusas para cruzar el río Seversky Donets y utilizados anteriormente para el despliegue rápido de tanques en la región. [223]

Frente de Kherson-Mykolaiv

Soldados ucranianos en la ciudad recuperada de Vysokopillia en septiembre de 2022 durante la contraofensiva de Kherson de 2022

Los ataques con misiles y los bombardeos de las ciudades clave de Mykolaiv y Odesa continuaron mientras comenzaba la segunda fase de la invasión. [179] El 22 de abril de 2022, el general de brigada ruso Rustam Minnekayev, en una reunión del Ministerio de Defensa, dijo que Rusia planeaba extender su frente Mykolaiv-Odesa después del asedio de Mariupol más al oeste para incluir la región separatista de Transnistria en la frontera ucraniana con Moldavia. [224] El Ministerio de Defensa de Ucrania calificó este plan de imperialismo y dijo que contradecía las afirmaciones rusas anteriores de que no tenía ambiciones territoriales en Ucrania y también que la declaración admitía que "el objetivo de la 'segunda fase' de la guerra no es la victoria sobre los míticos nazis, sino simplemente la ocupación del este y el sur de Ucrania". [224] Georgi Gotev de EURACTIV señaló el 22 de abril que la ocupación rusa desde Odesa hasta Transnistria transformaría a Ucrania en una nación sin salida al mar sin acceso práctico al Mar Negro. [225] Rusia reanudó sus ataques con misiles sobre Odesa el 24 de abril, destruyendo instalaciones militares y causando dos docenas de víctimas civiles. [226]

El 27 de abril, dos torres de transmisión rusas en Transnistria, que se dedicaban principalmente a retransmitir programas de televisión rusos, según dijeron fuentes ucranianas. [227] Los ataques con misiles rusos a finales de abril destruyeron pistas de aterrizaje en Odesa. [228] En la semana del 10 de mayo, las tropas ucranianas comenzaron a desalojar a las fuerzas rusas de la Isla de la Serpiente en el Mar Negro, aproximadamente a 200 kilómetros (120 millas) de Odesa. [229] El 30 de junio de 2022, Rusia dijo que había retirado sus tropas de la isla, una vez que se habían completado sus objetivos. [230]

El 23 de julio, la CNBC informó sobre un ataque con misiles rusos al puerto ucraniano de Odesa, que fue rápidamente condenado por los líderes mundiales en medio de un reciente acuerdo negociado por la ONU y Turquía para asegurar un corredor marítimo para las exportaciones de granos y otros alimentos. [231] El 31 de julio, la CNN informó sobre una intensificación significativa de los ataques con cohetes y el bombardeo de Mykolaiv por parte de los rusos, que también mataron al magnate ucraniano de los granos Oleksiy Vadaturskyi . [232]

Frente de Zaporizhia

El presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, calificó de "crimen de guerra" el ataque con misiles rusos contra un centro comercial en Kremenchuk el 28 de junio de 2022

Las fuerzas rusas continuaron disparando misiles y lanzando bombas sobre las ciudades clave de Dnipro y Zaporizhia . [179] Los misiles rusos destruyeron el Aeropuerto Internacional de Dnipro el 10 de abril de 2022. [233] El 2 de mayo, la ONU, al parecer con la cooperación de las tropas rusas, evacuó a unos 100 sobrevivientes del asedio de Mariupol a la aldea de Bezimenne cerca de Donetsk, desde donde se trasladarían a Zaporizhia. [234] El 28 de junio, Reuters informó que un ataque con misiles rusos en la ciudad de Kremenchuk al noroeste de Zaporizhia detonó en un centro comercial público y causó al menos 18 muertes. El francés Emmanuel Macron lo calificó de "crimen de guerra". [235]

La agencia nuclear ucraniana Energoatom calificó la situación en la planta nuclear de Zaporizhia de "extremadamente tensa", aunque todavía estaba operada por su personal ucraniano. Hasta 500 soldados rusos controlaban la planta; la agencia nuclear de Kiev dijo que estaban bombardeando áreas cercanas y almacenando armas y "sistemas de misiles" allí. Casi todo el país se puso en alerta aérea. "Ya bombardean el otro lado del río Dnipro y el territorio de Nikopol", dijo el presidente de Energoatom, Pedro Kotin. [236] Rusia acordó el 19 de agosto permitir el acceso de los inspectores del OIEA a la planta de Zaporizhia después de una llamada telefónica de Macron a Putin. Sin embargo, a julio de 2023, el acceso a la planta seguía siendo limitado y requería una extensa negociación. [237]

Rusia informó que hasta el 18 de agosto se habían registrado 12 ataques con explosiones de 50 proyectiles de artillería en la planta y en la ciudad industrial de Enerhodar . [238] Tobias Ellwood , presidente del Comité Selecto de Defensa del Reino Unido , dijo el 19 de agosto que cualquier daño deliberado a la planta nuclear de Zaporizhzhia que pudiera causar fugas de radiación sería una violación del Artículo 5 del Tratado del Atlántico Norte , según el cual un ataque a un estado miembro de la OTAN es un ataque a todos ellos. El congresista estadounidense Adam Kinzinger dijo al día siguiente que cualquier fuga de radiación mataría a personas en los países de la OTAN, una activación automática del Artículo 5. [239] [240]

Civiles ucranianos muertos durante el ataque del ejército ruso al convoy civil de Zaporizhia en septiembre de 2022

El 23 de agosto, los bombardeos alcanzaron los vertederos de cenizas de carbón de la vecina central eléctrica de carbón , y el 25 de agosto las cenizas se incendiaron. La línea de transmisión de 750 kV a la subestación de Dniprovska, la única de las cuatro líneas de transmisión de 750 kV que aún no ha sufrido daños y que ha sido cortada por la acción militar, pasa por encima de los vertederos de cenizas. A las 12:12 horas del 25 de agosto, la línea quedó cortada debido al incendio, desconectando la planta y sus dos reactores en funcionamiento de la red nacional por primera vez desde su puesta en marcha en 1985. En respuesta, se pusieron en marcha los generadores de reserva y las bombas de refrigerante del reactor 5, y el reactor 6 redujo su generación. [241]

La energía eléctrica que llegaba a la subestación de la central de carbón todavía estaba disponible a través de la línea de 330 kV, por lo que los generadores diésel no eran esenciales para enfriar los núcleos de los reactores y las piscinas de combustible gastado . La línea de 750 kV y el reactor 6 reanudaron su funcionamiento a las 12:29 p. m., pero la línea se incendió nuevamente dos horas después. La línea, pero no los reactores, reanudó su funcionamiento nuevamente ese mismo día. [241] El 26 de agosto, un reactor se reinició por la tarde y otro por la noche, reanudando el suministro de electricidad a la red. [242] El 29 de agosto de 2022, un equipo del OIEA dirigido por Rafael Grossi fue a la planta para investigar. [243] Lydie Evrard y Massimo Aparo también estaban en el equipo. No se habían reportado fugas en la planta antes de su llegada, pero se habían producido bombardeos días antes. [244]

Anexiones y pérdidas por ocupación rusa (6 de septiembre – 11 de noviembre de 2022)

Mapa animado de la invasión rusa del 5 de septiembre de 2022 al 11 de noviembre de 2022

El 6 de septiembre de 2022, las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron una contraofensiva sorpresa en la región de Járkov , comenzando cerca de Balakliia , dirigida por el general Syrskyi . [245] Un envalentonado Kiev lanzó una contraofensiva el 12 de septiembre alrededor de Járkov lo suficientemente exitosa como para hacer que Rusia admitiera haber perdido posiciones clave y para que The New York Times dijera que dañaba la imagen de un "Poderoso Putin". Kiev buscó más armas de Occidente para sostener la contraofensiva. [246] El 21 de septiembre de 2022, Vladimir Putin anunció una movilización parcial y el ministro de Defensa, Sergei Shoigu, dijo que se convocaría a 300.000 reservistas. [247] También dijo que su país utilizaría "todos los medios" para "defenderse". Mykhailo Podolyak, asesor de Zelenskyy, dijo que la decisión era predecible y que era un intento de justificar "los fracasos de Rusia". [248] La ministra de Asuntos Exteriores británica, Gillian Keegan, calificó la situación de "escalada", [249] mientras que el ex presidente mongol Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj acusó a Rusia de utilizar a los mongoles rusos como "carne de cañón". [250]

Anexión rusa de las provincias de Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk y Zaporizhia

A fines de septiembre de 2022, funcionarios instalados por Rusia en Ucrania organizaron referendos sobre la anexión de los territorios ocupados de Ucrania. Estos incluían la República Popular de Donetsk y la República Popular de Luhansk en las provincias de Donetsk y Luhansk ocupadas por Rusia en Ucrania, así como las administraciones militares designadas por Rusia de las provincias de Jersón y Zaporizhia. Denunciadas por el gobierno de Ucrania y sus aliados como elecciones simuladas , los resultados oficiales de las elecciones mostraron una mayoría abrumadora a favor de la anexión. [251]

El 30 de septiembre de 2022, Vladimir Putin anunció la anexión de las regiones ucranianas de Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson y Zaporizhia en un discurso ante ambas cámaras del parlamento ruso . [252] Ucrania, Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y las Naciones Unidas denunciaron la anexión como ilegal. [253]

Frente de Zaporizhia

Daños en un edificio residencial en Zaporizhia tras un ataque aéreo el 9 de octubre de 2022

El 3 de septiembre, una delegación del OIEA visitó la central nuclear de Zaporizhia y el 6 de septiembre informó de los daños y amenazas a la seguridad causados ​​por los bombardeos externos y la presencia de tropas de ocupación en la planta. [254] El 11 de septiembre, a las 3:14 horas, el sexto y último reactor fue desconectado de la red, "parando por completo" la planta. Energoatom dijo que se estaban realizando los preparativos "para enfriarla y pasarla a un estado frío". [255]

En la madrugada del 9 de octubre de 2022, las Fuerzas Armadas rusas llevaron a cabo un ataque aéreo contra un edificio residencial en Zaporizhia, matando a 13 civiles e hiriendo a otros 89. [256]

Contraofensiva del Kherson

El presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelenskyy , participa en el izamiento de la bandera ucraniana en Kherson unos días después de la liberación de la ciudad.

El 29 de agosto, Zelenskyy prometió deliberadamente el inicio de una contraofensiva a gran escala en el sudeste. Primero anunció una contraofensiva para recuperar el territorio ocupado por Rusia en el sur, concentrándose en la región de Kherson-Mykolaiv, una afirmación que fue corroborada por el parlamento ucraniano, así como por el Comando Operacional Sur . [257]

El 4 de septiembre, Zelenskyy anunció la liberación de dos aldeas no identificadas en la provincia de Kherson y una en la provincia de Donetsk. Las autoridades ucranianas publicaron una foto que mostraba el izamiento de la bandera ucraniana en Vysokopillia por parte de las fuerzas ucranianas. [258] Los ataques ucranianos también continuaron a lo largo de la línea del frente sur, aunque los informes sobre cambios territoriales fueron en gran medida imposibles de verificar. [259] El 12 de septiembre, Zelenskyy dijo que las fuerzas ucranianas habían recuperado un total de 6.000 kilómetros cuadrados (2.300 millas cuadradas) de Rusia, tanto en el sur como en el este. La BBC declaró que no podía verificar estas afirmaciones. [260]

En octubre, las fuerzas ucranianas avanzaron más al sur hacia la ciudad de Jersón, tomando el control de 1.170 kilómetros cuadrados (450 millas cuadradas) de territorio, y los combates se extendieron hasta Dudchany . [261] [262] El 9 de noviembre, el ministro de Defensa Shoigu ordenó a las fuerzas rusas que abandonaran parte del óblast de Jersón, incluida la ciudad de Jersón , y se trasladaran a la orilla oriental del Dniéper. [263] El 11 de noviembre, las tropas ucranianas entraron en Jersón, mientras Rusia completaba su retirada. Esto significó que las fuerzas rusas ya no tenían un punto de apoyo en la orilla oeste (derecha) del Dniéper. [264]

Contraofensiva de Járkov

Las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron otra contraofensiva sorpresa el 6 de septiembre en la región de Járkov, cerca de Balakliia, liderada por el general Syrskyi. [245] Para el 7 de septiembre, las fuerzas ucranianas habían avanzado unos 20 kilómetros (12 millas) en territorio ocupado por Rusia y afirmaron haber recuperado aproximadamente 400 kilómetros cuadrados (150 millas cuadradas). Los comentaristas rusos dijeron que esto probablemente se debió a la reubicación de las fuerzas rusas en Jersón en respuesta a la ofensiva ucraniana allí. [265] El 8 de septiembre, las fuerzas ucranianas capturaron Balakliia y avanzaron hasta 15 kilómetros (9,3 millas) de Kupiansk . [266] Los analistas militares dijeron que las fuerzas ucranianas parecían estar moviéndose hacia Kupiansk, un importante centro ferroviario, con el objetivo de cortar el paso a las fuerzas rusas en Izium desde el norte. [267]

El 9 de septiembre, la administración de ocupación rusa de la provincia de Járkov anunció que "evacuaría" a las poblaciones civiles de Izium, Kupiansk y Velykyi Burluk . El Instituto para el Estudio de la Guerra (ISW) dijo que creía que Kupiansk probablemente caería en las siguientes 72 horas, [268] mientras que unidades de reserva rusas fueron enviadas a la zona tanto por carretera como por helicóptero. [269] En la mañana del 10 de septiembre, aparecieron fotos que supuestamente mostraban a tropas ucranianas izando la bandera ucraniana en el centro de Kupiansk, [270] y el ISW dijo que las fuerzas ucranianas habían capturado aproximadamente 2.500 kilómetros cuadrados (970 millas cuadradas) explotando eficazmente su avance. [271] Más tarde ese día, Reuters informó que las posiciones rusas en el noreste de Ucrania habían "colapsado" ante el asalto ucraniano, y que las fuerzas rusas se vieron obligadas a retirarse de su base en Izium después de quedar aisladas por la captura de Kupiansk. [272]

El 15 de septiembre, una evaluación del Ministerio de Defensa del Reino Unido confirmó que Rusia había perdido o se había retirado de casi todas sus posiciones al oeste del río Oskil . Las unidades en retirada también habían abandonado varios activos militares de alto valor. [273] La ofensiva continuó avanzando hacia el este y el 1 de octubre, las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania habían liberado la ciudad clave de Lyman . [274]

Estancamiento invernal, campaña de desgaste y aumento de tropas (12 de noviembre de 2022 – 7 de junio de 2023)

Los primeros ministros de Ucrania y Polonia se estrechan la mano cerca de los tanques Leopard 2 proporcionados por Polonia a Ucrania

Tras el final de las dos contraofensivas ucranianas, la lucha se estancó durante el invierno, [275] con muchas bajas pero con un movimiento reducido de la línea del frente. [276] Rusia lanzó una autoproclamada ofensiva de invierno en el este de Ucrania, pero la campaña terminó en una "decepción" para Moscú, con ganancias limitadas ya que la ofensiva se estancó. [275] [277] Los analistas culparon del fracaso a la falta de "hombres entrenados" de Rusia y a problemas de suministro de munición de artillería, entre otros problemas. [275] [277] Cerca de finales de mayo, Mark Galeotti evaluó que "después de la abortada y mal concebida ofensiva de invierno de Rusia, que desperdició su oportunidad de consolidar sus fuerzas, Ucrania está en una posición relativamente fuerte". [278]

El 7 de febrero, The New York Times informó que los rusos habían movilizado a casi 200.000 soldados para participar en la ofensiva en el Donbass, contra las tropas ucranianas ya cansadas de los combates anteriores. [279] La empresa militar privada rusa Wagner Group adquirió mayor prominencia en la guerra, [280] liderando "avances devastadores" en Bakhmut con decenas de miles de reclutas de batallones de prisión que participaron en ataques "casi suicidas" contra posiciones ucranianas. [277]

A finales de enero de 2023, los combates se intensificaron en la región meridional de Zaporizhia, y ambos bandos sufrieron numerosas bajas. [281] En las zonas meridionales cercanas del óblast de Donetsk, un intenso asalto ruso de tres semanas cerca de la ciudad minera de carbón de Vuhledar fue calificado como la mayor batalla de tanques de la guerra hasta la fecha, y terminó en desastre para las fuerzas rusas, que perdieron "al menos 130 tanques y vehículos blindados de transporte de personal", según los comandantes ucranianos. El Ministerio de Defensa británico declaró que "toda una brigada rusa fue aniquilada de manera efectiva". [282] [283]

Batalla de Bajmut

Vista de la zona occidental de Bajmut durante la batalla, 5 de abril de 2023

Tras la derrota en Kherson y Kharkiv, las fuerzas rusas y de Wagner se centraron en tomar la ciudad de Bakhmut y romper el estancamiento de medio año que prevalecía allí desde el comienzo de la guerra. Las fuerzas rusas intentaron rodear la ciudad, atacando desde el norte a través de Soledar . Después de sufrir numerosas bajas, las fuerzas rusas y de Wagner tomaron el control de Soledar el 16 de enero de 2023. [284] [285] A principios de febrero de 2023, Bakhmut se enfrentaba a ataques desde el norte, el sur y el este, y las únicas líneas de suministro ucranianas provenían de Chasiv Yar al oeste. [286]

El 3 de marzo de 2023, los soldados ucranianos destruyeron dos puentes clave, lo que creó la posibilidad de una retirada controlada de los sectores orientales de Bakhmut. [287] El 4 de marzo, el vicealcalde de Bakhmut dijo a los servicios de noticias que había combates callejeros en la ciudad. [288] El 7 de marzo, a pesar del cerco casi total de la ciudad, The New York Times informó que los comandantes ucranianos estaban solicitando permiso a Kiev para seguir luchando contra los rusos en Bakhmut. [289]

El 26 de marzo, las fuerzas del Grupo Wagner afirmaron haber capturado por completo la fábrica Azom, de importancia táctica, en Bajmut. [290] Al comparecer ante el Comité de Servicios Armados de la Cámara el 29 de marzo, el general Mark Milley , presidente del Estado Mayor Conjunto , informó que "durante los últimos 20 o 21 días, Rusia no ha logrado ningún progreso en Bajmut ni en sus alrededores". Milley describió las graves bajas que estaban sufriendo las fuerzas rusas allí como una "matanza". [291]

A principios de mayo, el ISW evaluó que Ucrania controlaba solo 1,89 kilómetros cuadrados (0,73 millas cuadradas) de la ciudad, menos del cinco por ciento. [292] El 18 de mayo de 2023, The New York Times informó que las fuerzas ucranianas habían lanzado una contraofensiva local, recuperando franjas de territorio al norte y al sur de Bakhmut en el transcurso de unos pocos días. [293] El 20 de mayo de 2023, el Grupo Wagner reclamó el control total sobre Bakhmut, y Rusia declaró oficialmente la victoria en la batalla al día siguiente, [294] tras lo cual las fuerzas de Wagner se retiraron de la ciudad en lugar de unidades rusas regulares. [295]

Contraofensivas y campaña de verano de 2023 (8 de junio de 2023 – 1 de diciembre de 2023)

Inundación en la región de Jersón el 10 de junio de 2023 causada por la destrucción de la presa de Kakhovka el 6 de junio de 2023

En junio de 2023, las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron gradualmente una serie de contraofensivas en múltiples frentes, incluidos el óblast de Donetsk, el óblast de Zaporizhia y otros. [296] El 8 de junio de 2023, los esfuerzos de contraofensiva se centraron cerca de asentamientos como Orikhiv , Tokmak y Bakhmut. [297] Sin embargo, las operaciones de contraofensiva enfrentaron una fuerte resistencia por parte de Rusia, [298] y el grupo de expertos estadounidense Institute for the Study of War describió el esfuerzo defensivo ruso como teniendo "un grado inusual de coherencia". [299] El 12 de junio, Ucrania informó su avance más rápido en siete meses, afirmando haber liberado varias aldeas y avanzado un total de 6,5 km. Los blogueros militares rusos también informaron que Ucrania había tomado Blahodatne , Makarivka y Neskuchne , y continuaban avanzando hacia el sur. [300] Ucrania continuó liberando asentamientos durante los meses siguientes, izando la bandera ucraniana sobre el asentamiento de Robotyne a finales de agosto. [301]

Un tanque en Rostov del Don perteneciente al Grupo Wagner decorado con flores durante la rebelión del Grupo Wagner en el verano de 2023

El 24 de junio, el Grupo Wagner lanzó una breve rebelión contra el gobierno ruso, capturando varias ciudades en el oeste de Rusia sin encontrar prácticamente oposición antes de marchar hacia Moscú. [302] Esto fue la culminación de una prolongada lucha interna y de poder entre Wagner y el Ministerio de Defensa ruso. [303] Después de unas 24 horas, el Grupo Wagner dio marcha atrás [304] y aceptó un acuerdo de paz en el que el líder de Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, se exiliaría en Bielorrusia y sus fuerzas quedarían libres de persecución. [302] El 27 de junio, el Ministerio de Defensa del Reino Unido informó de que era "muy probable" que Ucrania hubiera recuperado territorio en la región oriental del Donbás ocupada por Rusia desde 2014 entre sus avances. Los blogueros prorrusos también informaron de que las fuerzas ucranianas habían logrado avances en la región meridional de Jersón, estableciendo un punto de apoyo en la margen izquierda del río Dniéper después de cruzarlo. [305]

In August, The Guardian reported that Ukraine had become the most mined country in the world, with Russia laying millions of mines attempting to thwart Ukraine's counteroffensive. The vast minefields forced Ukraine to extensively de-mine areas to allow advances. Ukrainian officials reported shortages of men and equipment as Ukrainian soldiers unearthed five mines for every square metre in certain places.[306]

School lessons of pupils in Kharkiv Metro due to the danger of Russian shelling

Following Russia pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the conflict on the Black Sea escalated with Ukraine targeting Russian ships. On 4 August, Ukrainian security service sources reported that the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak had been hit and damaged by an unmanned naval drone. Video footage released by Ukraine's security services appeared to show the drone striking the ship, with another video showing the ship seemingly listing to one side.[307] On 12 September, both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian naval targets in Sevastopol had been struck by unconfirmed weaponry, damaging two military vessels, one of them reportedly a submarine.[308] Ukraine also reported that several oil and gas drilling platforms on the Black Sea held by Russia since 2015 had been retaken.[309]

Ukrainian soldiers in recaptured Klishchiivka on 17 September 2023

In September 2023, Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia had deployed over 420,000 troops in Ukraine.[310]

On 21 September, Russia began missile strikes across Ukraine, damaging the country's energy facilities.[311] On 22 September, the US announced it would send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine,[312] despite the reservations of some government officials.[313] The same day, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence launched a missile strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea, killing several senior military officials.[314][315]

In October 2023, it was reported that there was a growth of mutinies among Russian troops due to large amount of losses in Russian offensives around Avdiivka with a lack of artillery, food, water and poor command also being reported.[316] By November, British intelligence said that recent weeks had "likely seen some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far."[317]

In mid-to-late October 2023, Ukrainian marines—partly guided by defecting Russian troops—crossed the Dnipro River (the strategic barrier between eastern and western Ukraine), downstream of the destroyed Kakhovka Dam, to attack the Russian-held territory on the east side of the river. Despite heavy losses due to intense Russian shelling and aerial bombardment, disorganisation, and dwindling resources, Ukrainian brigades invading the Russian-held side of the river continued to inflict heavy casualties on Russian forces well into late December.[318][319]

On 1 December 2023, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was not successful, citing slower than expected results.[320] Zelenskyy also stated that it will be easier for Ukraine to regain the Crimean peninsula than the Donbas region in the east of the country, because the Donbas is heavily militarised and there are frequent pro-Russian sentiments.[321] In December 2023, multiple international media outlets described the Ukrainian counteroffensive as having failed to regain any significant amount of territory or meet any of its strategic objectives.[320][322][323]

Russian spring and summer campaigns and Ukrainian incursion (1 December 2023 – present)

Damaged buildings in Avdiivka during fighting over the city in January 2024

Russian offensive

On 17 February 2024, Russia captured Avdiivka, a longtime stronghold for Ukraine that had been described as a "gateway" to nearby Donetsk.[324][325][326] ABC News stated that Russia could use the development to boost morale with the war largely at a stalemate close to its second anniversary.[327] Described by Forbes journalist David Axe as a pyrrhic Russian victory, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies ended up with 16,000 men killed, tens of thousands wounded and around 700 vehicles lost before seizing the ruins of Avdiivka.[328]

Ukraine's shortage of ammunition caused by political deadlock in the U.S. Congress and a lack of production capacity in Europe contributed to the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, and was "being felt across the front" according to Time. The shortage resulted in Ukraine having to ration its units to fire only 2,000 rounds per day, compared to an estimated 10,000 rounds fired daily by Russia.[329]

On 10 May 2024, Russia began a renewed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Russia managed to capture a dozen villages, and Ukraine had evacuated more than 11,000 people from the region since the start of the offensive by 25 May. Ukraine said on 17 May that its forces had slowed the Russian advance, and by 25 May Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces had secured "combat control" of areas where Russian troops entered the northeastern Kharkiv region. Russian officials meanwhile said that they were "advancing in every direction" and that the goal was to create a "buffer zone" for embattled border regions.[330][331] The White House said on 7 June that the offensive had stalled and was unlikely to advance further.[332]

Following the Russian success in the battle of Avdiivka, their forces advanced northwest of it to form a salient, and by mid-April 2024 reached the settlement of Ocheretyne, capturing it in late April[333][334] and further expanding the salient in the succeeding months.[335] Russian forces also launched an offensive towards the city of Chasiv Yar in early April,[336] a strategically important settlement west of Bakhmut, and by early July had captured its easternmost district.[337][338] Another offensive in the direction of the city of Toretsk was launched on 18 June,[339] with the goal of capturing the city,[340] and according to Ukrainian military observer and spokesperson Nazar Voloshyn, flanking Chasiv Yar from the south.[341] Russian forces advanced to expand the salient northwest of Avdiivka in July, and on 19 July, made a breakthrough allowing them to begin advancing towards the operationally significant city of Pokrovsk.[342][343]

Ukrainian offensive

On 6 August 2024, Ukraine launched their first direct offensive into Russian territory, the largest of any pro-Ukrainian incursion since the invasion's inception, into the bordering Kursk Oblast.[344] The main axis of the initial advance centred in the direction of the town of Sudzha, located 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from the border,[345] which was reported by President Zelenskyy to have been captured on 15 August.[346] Ukraine, taking advantage of the lack of experienced units and defenses along the border with Kursk Oblast, was able to quickly seize territory in the opening days of the incursion.[347] According to US officials, the incursion caused Russia to divert thousands of troops from occupied Ukrainian territory to counter the threat.[348] However, Russian troops continued advancing in eastern Ukraine, including towards the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, where their number of forces had instead been increased.[349][350][351]

Battlespaces

Command

Putin with Shoigu, Gerasimov, Belousov, Yevkurov and commanders of military districts of Russia on 15 May 2024
Zelenskyy with Ukrainian servicemen defending the city of Bakhmut in December 2022

The supreme commanders-in-chief are the heads of state of the respective governments: President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. Putin has reportedly meddled in operational decisions, bypassing senior commanders and giving orders directly to brigade commanders.[352]

US general Mark Milley said that Ukraine's top military commander in the war, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, "has emerged as the military mind his country needed. His leadership enabled the Ukrainian armed forces to adapt quickly with battlefield initiative against the Russians."[353] Russia began the invasion with no overall commander. The commanders of the four military districts were each responsible for their own offensives.[354]

After initial setbacks, the commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Aleksandr Dvornikov, was placed in overall command on 8 April 2022,[355] while still responsible for his own campaign. Russian forces benefited from the centralisation of command under Dvornikov,[356] but continued failures to meet expectations in Moscow led to multiple changes in overall command:[354]

Russia has suffered a remarkably large number of casualties in the ranks of its officers, including 12 generals.[357]

Missile attacks and aerial warfare

A street in Kyiv following Russian missile strikes on 10 October 2022

Aerial warfare began the first day of the invasion. Dozens of missile attacks were recorded across both eastern and western Ukraine,[86][87] reaching as far west as Lviv.[166]

By September 2022, the Ukrainian air force had shot down about 55 Russian warplanes.[358] In mid-October, Russian forces launched missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, intended to knock out energy facilities.[359] By late November, hundreds of civilians had been killed or wounded in the attacks,[360] and rolling blackouts had left millions without power.[361]

In December 2022, drones launched from Ukraine allegedly carried out several attacks on Dyagilevo and Engels air bases in western Russia, killing 10 and heavily damaging two Tu-95 aircraft.[362]

Crimea attacks

On 31 July 2022, Russian Navy Day commemorations were cancelled after a drone attack reportedly wounded several people at the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol.[363] On 9 August 2022, large explosions were reported at Saky Air Base in western Crimea. Satellite imagery showed at least eight aircraft damaged or destroyed. Initial speculation attributed the explosions to long-range missiles, sabotage by special forces or an accident;[364] Ukrainian general Valerii Zaluzhnyi claimed responsibility on 7 September.[365]

The base is near Novofedorivka, a destination popular with tourists. Traffic backed up at the Crimean Bridge after the explosions with queues of civilians trying to leave the area.[366] A week later Russia blamed "sabotage" for explosions and a fire at an arms depot near Dzhankoi in northeastern Crimea that also damaged a railway line and power station. Russian regional head Sergei Aksyonov said that 2,000 people were evacuated from the area.[367] On 18 August, explosions were reported at Belbek Air Base north of Sevastopol.[368] On the morning of 8 October 2022 the Kerch Bridge, linking occupied Crimea to Russia, partially collapsed due to an explosion.[369] On 17 July 2023, there was another large explosion on the bridge.[370]

Russian attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure

Fires on a combined heat and power plant in Kyiv after Russian missile strikes on 10 October 2022

Since fall of 2022, Russia has carried out waves of strikes on Ukrainian electrical and water systems.[371] On October 6 the Ukrainian military reported that 86 Shahed 136 kamikaze drones had been launched by Russian forces in total, and between September 30 and October 6 Ukrainian forces had destroyed 24 out of 46 launched in that period.[372] On 8 October, it was announced that General of the Army Sergey Surovikin would be commanding all Russian forces in Ukraine on the strength of his novel air assault technique.[373]

On 16 October 2022, The Washington Post reported that Iran was planning to supply Russia with both drones and missiles.[374] On 18 October the U.S. State Department accused Iran of violating Resolution 2231 by selling Shahed 131 and Shahed 136 drones to Russia,[375] agreeing with similar assessments by France and the United Kingdom. Iran denied sending any arms to Russia for the Ukraine war.[376] On 22 October France, Britain and Germany formally called for a UN investigation.[377] On 1 November, CNN reported that Iran was preparing to send ballistic missiles and other weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine.[378]

On 15 November 2022, Russia fired 85 missiles at the Ukrainian power grid, causing major power outages in Kyiv and neighboring regions.[379]

On 21 November, CNN quoted an intelligence assessment that Iran had begun to help Russia produce Iran-designed drones in Russia.[380] A 29 December New York Times report stated that the US was working to "choke off Iran's ability to manufacture the drones, make it harder for the Russians to launch the unmanned "kamikaze" aircraft and — if all else fails — to provide the Ukrainians with the defenses necessary to shoot them out of the sky."[381]

On 31 December, Putin in his New Year address called the war against Ukraine a "sacred duty to our ancestors and descendants" as missiles and drones rained down on Kyiv.[382]

On 10 March 2023, The New York Times reported that Russia had used new hypersonic missiles in a massive missile attack on Ukraine. Such missiles are more effective in evading conventional Ukrainian anti-missile defences that had previously proved useful against Russia's conventional, non-hypersonic missile systems.[383]

The strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure were part of Russia's 'Strategic Operation for the Destruction of Critically Important Targets' (SODCIT) military doctrine, said the UK Defense Ministry, intended to demoralize the population and forcing the Ukrainian leadership to capitulate.[384] According to the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), "Russian strikes had cumulatively destroyed 9 gigawatts (GW) of Ukraine's domestic power generation by mid-June 2024. Peak consumption during the winter of 2023 was 18 GW, which means that half of Ukraine's production capacity has been destroyed."[385]

On 8 July 2024 Russia used a Kh-101 missile[386] to kill at least two people and injure at least 16 people at the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv.[387][388][389] Also hit the same night were facilities in Pokrovsk and Kryvyi Rih.[390] At least 20 civilians were killed in Kyiv that night.[391]

Naval blockade and engagements

Commemorative stamp about the phrase Russian warship, go fuck yourself!
The Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva was sunk on 14 April 2022, reportedly after being hit by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles.

Ukraine lies on the Black Sea, which has ocean access only through the Turkish-held Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits. On 28 February, Turkey invoked the 1936 Montreux Convention and sealed off the straits to Russian warships that were not registered to Black Sea home bases and returning to their ports of origin. It specifically denied passage through the Turkish Straits to four Russian naval vessels.[392] On 24 February, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine announced that Russian Navy ships had begun an attack on Snake Island.[393] The guided missile cruiser Moskva and patrol boat Vasily Bykov bombarded the island with deck guns.[394] The Russian warship identified itself and instructed the Ukrainians on the island to surrender. Their response was "Russian warship, go fuck yourself!"[395] After the bombardment, a detachment of Russian soldiers landed and took control of Snake Island.[396] Russia said on 26 February that US drones had supplied intelligence to the Ukrainian navy to help it target Russian warships in the Black Sea. The US denied this.[397]

By 3 March, Ukrainian forces in Mykolaiv scuttled the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, the flagship of the Ukrainian navy, to prevent its capture by Russian forces.[398] On 14 March, the Russian source RT reported that the Russian Armed Forces had captured about a dozen Ukrainian ships in Berdiansk, including the Polnocny-class landing ship Yuri Olefirenko.[399] On 24 March, Ukrainian officials said that a Russian landing ship docked in Berdiansk—initially reported to be the Orsk and then its sister ship, the Saratov—was destroyed by a Ukrainian rocket attack.[146][400] In March 2022, the UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) sought to create a safe sea corridor for commercial vessels to leave Ukrainian ports.[401] On 27 March, Russia established a sea corridor 80 miles (130 km) long and 3 miles (4.8 km) wide through its Maritime Exclusion Zone, for the transit of merchant vessels from the edge of Ukrainian territorial waters southeast of Odesa.[402][403] Ukraine closed its ports at MARSEC level 3, with sea mines laid in port approaches, pending the end of hostilities.[404][failed verification]

The Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, was, according to Ukrainian sources and a US senior official,[405] hit on 13 April by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, setting the ship afire. The Russian Defence Ministry said the warship had suffered serious damage from a munition explosion caused by a fire, and that its entire crew had been evacuated.[406] Pentagon spokesman John Kirby reported on 14 April that satellite images showed that the Russian warship had suffered a sizeable explosion onboard but was heading to the east for expected repairs and refitting in Sevastopol.[407] Later the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated that the Moskva had sunk while under tow in rough weather.[408] On 15 April, Reuters reported that Russia launched an apparent retaliatory missile strike against the missile factory Luch Design Bureau in Kyiv where the Neptune missiles used in the Moskva attack were manufactured and designed.[409] On 5 May, a US official confirmed that the US gave "a range of intelligence" (including real-time battlefield targeting intelligence)[410] to assist in the sinking of the Moskva.[411]

On 1 June, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asserted that Ukraine's policy of mining its own harbours to impede Russian maritime aggression had contributed to the food export crisis, saying: "If Kyiv solves the problem of demining ports, the Russian Navy will ensure the unimpeded passage of ships with grain to the Mediterranean Sea."[412] On 30 June 2022, Russia announced that it had withdrawn its troops from the island in a "gesture of goodwill."[230] The withdrawal was later confirmed by Ukraine.[413]

On 26 December 2023, Ukraine's air force attacked the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk docked in Feodosia. Ukraine said it was destroyed—unlikely to sail again. Russian authorities confirmed the attack, but not the loss, and said two attacking aircraft were destroyed. Independent analysts said the ship's loss could hamper future Russian attacks on Ukraine's coast.[414][415][416] On 31 January 2024, Ukrainian sea drones struck the Russian Tarantul-class corvette Ivanovets in the Black Sea, causing the ship to sink.[417][418] Two weeks later on 14 February, the same type of Ukrainian sea drones struck and sank the Russian landing ship Tsezar Kunikov.[419][420]

Nuclear risk

Four days into the invasion, President Putin placed Russia's nuclear forces on high alert, raising fears that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, or a wider escalation of the conflict could occur.[421] Putin alluded in April to the use of nuclear weapons, and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said there was a "real" danger of a World War III.[422] On 14 April 2022, CIA director William Burns said that "potential desperation" in the face of defeat could encourage President Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons.[423] In response to Russia's disregard of safety precautions during its occupation of the disabled former nuclear power plant at Chernobyl and its firing of missiles in the vicinity of the active Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Zelenskyy called on 26 April for an international discussion on Russia's use of nuclear resources, saying: "no one in the world can feel safe knowing how many nuclear facilities, nuclear weapons and related technologies the Russian state has ... If Russia has forgotten what Chernobyl is, it means that global control over Russia's nuclear facilities, and nuclear technology is needed."[424]

In August 2022, shelling around Zaporizhzhia power plant became a crisis, prompting an emergency inspection by the IAEA. Ukraine described the crisis nuclear terrorism by Russia.[425] On 19 September, President Biden warned of a "consequential response from the U.S." if Russia were to resort to using nuclear weapons in the conflict.[426] Before the United Nations on 21 September Biden criticised Putin's nuclear sabre-rattling, calling Putin "overt, reckless and irresponsible... A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought."[427] In March 2023, Putin announced plans to install Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.[428]

Ukrainian resistance

Civilians in Kyiv preparing Molotov cocktails, 26 February 2022

Ukrainian civilians resisted the Russian invasion by volunteering for territorial defence units, making Molotov cocktails, donating food, building barriers like Czech hedgehogs,[429] and helping to transport refugees.[430] Responding to a call from Ukravtodor, Ukraine's transportation agency, civilians dismantled or altered road signs,[431] constructed makeshift barriers, and blocked roadways.[432] Social media reports showed spontaneous street protests against Russian forces in occupied settlements, often evolving into verbal altercations and physical standoffs with Russian troops.[433] By the beginning of April, Ukrainian civilians began to organise as guerrillas, mostly in the wooded north and east of the country. The Ukrainian military announced plans for a large-scale guerrilla campaign to complement its conventional defence.[434]

People physically blocked Russian military vehicles, sometimes forcing them to retreat.[433][435] The Russian soldiers' response to unarmed civilian resistance varied from reluctance to engage the protesters,[433] to firing into the air, to firing directly into crowds.[436] There have been mass detentions of Ukrainian protesters, and Ukrainian media has reported forced disappearances, mock executions, hostage-taking, extrajudicial killings, and sexual violence perpetrated by the Russian military.[437] To facilitate Ukrainian attacks, civilians reported Russian military positions via a Telegram chatbot and Diia, a Ukrainian government app previously used by citizens to upload official identity and medical documents. In response, Russian forces began destroying mobile phone network equipment, searching door-to-door for smartphones and computers, and in at least one case killed a civilian who had pictures of Russian tanks.[438]

As of 21 May 2022, Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine had 700,000 service members on active duty fighting the Russian invasion.[439] Ukraine withdrew soldiers and military equipment back to Ukraine over the course of 2022 that had been deployed to United Nations peacekeeping missions like MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.[440]

International aspects

Reactions

UN General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 vote on 2 March 2022 condemning the invasion of Ukraine and demanding a complete withdrawal of Russian troops
  In favour
  Against
  Abstained
  Absent
  Non-member

The invasion received widespread international condemnation from governments and intergovernmental organisations.[441] On 2 March 2022 and on 23 February 2023, 141 member states of the UN General Assembly voted for a resolution saying that Russia should immediately withdraw. Seven, including Russia, voted against the measure.[442] Political reactions to the invasion included new sanctions imposed on Russia, which triggered widespread economic effects on the Russian and world economies.[443] Sanctions forced Russia to reorient its oil exports to non-sanctioning countries such as India, rely more on LNG (which was not subject to European Union sanctions), and shift its coal exports from Europe to Asia.[444] Most European countries cancelled nuclear cooperation with Russia.[445]

Over seventy sovereign states and the European Union delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and nearly fifty countries plus the EU provided military aid.[446] Economic sanctions included a ban on Russian aircraft using EU airspace,[447] a ban of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, and a ban on certain Russian media outlets.[448] Reactions to the invasion have included public response, media responses, peace efforts, and the examination of the legal implications of the invasion.

The invasion received widespread international public condemnation. Some countries, particularly in the Global South, saw public sympathy or outright support for Russia, due in part to distrust of US foreign policy.[449] Protests and demonstrations were held worldwide, including some in Russia and parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia.[450] Calls for a boycott of Russian goods spread on social media platforms,[451] while hackers attacked Russian websites, particularly those operated by the Russian government.[452] Anti-Russian sentiment against Russians living abroad surged after the invasion.[453] In March 2022, Russian President Putin introduced prison sentences of up to 15 years for publishing "fake news" about Russian military operations,[454] intended to suppress any criticism related to the war.[455]

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit in 2023, 31 percent of the world's population live in countries that are leaning towards or supportive of Russia, 30.7 percent live in neutral countries, and 36.2 percent live in countries that are against Russia in some way.[456]

By October 2022, three countries—Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia—had declared Russia a "terrorist state."[457] On 1 August, Iceland became the first European country to close its embassy in Russia as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.[458]

The invasion prompted Ukraine,[459] Finland and Sweden to officially apply for NATO membership.[460] Finland became a member of NATO on 4 April 2023,[461] followed by Sweden on 7 March 2024.[462]

A documentary film produced during the siege of Mariupol, 20 Days in Mariupol, won the Oscar for best documentary in 2024.[463]

Foreign involvement

Ukraine support

  Countries sending lethal military equipment to Ukraine
  Countries sending non-lethal military aid to Ukraine
  Russia
  Ukraine

Foreign involvement in the invasion has been worldwide and extensive, with support ranging from military sales and aid, sanctions, and condemnation.[464] Western and other countries imposed limited sanctions on Russia in the prelude to the invasion and applied new sanctions when the invasion began, intending to cripple the Russian economy;[465] sanctions targeted individuals, banks, businesses, monetary exchanges, exports, and imports.[464] From January 2022 to January 2024, $380 billion in aid to Ukraine was tracked by the Kiel Institute, including nearly $118 billion in direct military aid.[466] NATO is coordinating and helping its member states provide military equipment and financial aid to the country.[467]

The United States has provided the most military assistance to Ukraine,[468] having committed over $46 billion from the start of the invasion to January 2024,[466][e] though adopting a policy against sending troops.[471] NATO members such as Germany reversed policies against providing offensive military aid to support Ukraine, and the European Union supplied lethal arms for the first time in its history, providing over €3 billion to Ukraine.[472] Bulgaria has supplied more than €2 billion worth of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, including over one third of the ammunition needed in the early phase of the invasion and a plurality of needed fuel.[473] In September 2023, Poland said it would cease sending arms to Ukraine after a dispute between the two countries over grain.[474]

Russia support

Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory to stage part of the invasion, and to launch Russian missiles into Ukraine.[475] Belarus airspace was used by Russia, including for radar early warning and control missions, until 2023, when a Russian Beriev A-50 surveillance plane was damaged by drones.[476] Because of its active involvement, Belarus is considered a co-belligerent[477][478] (but not a co-combatant[479]) in this invasion, as contrasted to non-belligerent states, which have "a wide range of tools available to non-belligerent actors without reaching the threshold of warfighting".[480]

Politico reported in March 2023 that Chinese state-owned weapons manufacturer Norinco shipped assault rifles, drone parts, and body armor to Russia between June and December 2022, with some shipments via third countries including Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.[481] According to the United States, Chinese ammunition has been used on battlefields in Ukraine.[482] In May 2023, the European Union identified that Chinese and UAE firms were supplying weapon components to Russia.[483] In June 2023, US military intel suggested Iran was providing both Shahed combat drones and production materials to develop a drone manufactory to Russia.[484] According to the US, North Korea has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles and launchers although US authorities did not mention the specific models. Based on debris left by missiles on 30 December 2023 attacks against Ukrainian targets show parts common to KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25 missiles.[485][486] In February 2024, a Reuters report indicated that Iran sent ballistic missiles to the Russian military.[487] In April 2024, China was reported to have supplied Russia with geospatial intelligence, machine tools for tanks, and propellants for missiles.[488] Russia imports sensitive electronics, machinery, auto parts, and defense equipment from India.[489] Trade like oil sales has surged since 2022, boosting revenue for Russian state-owned companies. To bypass sanctions and manage its currency surplus, Russia pays in rupees, supporting both civilian and military needs.[490][491]

Casualties

Photos of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian casualties next to a Z marked armored vehicle
Recruitment point in Moscow in 2024 soliciting Russians to join the military

Russian and Ukrainian sources have both been said to inflate the casualty numbers for opposing forces and downplay their own losses for the sake of morale.[492] Leaked US documents say that "under-reporting of casualties within the [Russian] system highlights the military's 'continuing reluctance' to convey bad news up the chain of command."[493] Russian news outlets have largely stopped reporting the Russian death toll.[494] Russia and Ukraine have admitted suffering "significant"[495] and "considerable" losses, respectively.[496][497]

The numbers of civilian and military deaths have been as always impossible to determine precisely.[498] Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that neither it nor independent conflict monitors were able to verify Russian and Ukrainian claims of enemy losses and suspected that they were inflated.[499] On 12 October 2022, the independent Russian media project iStories, citing sources close to the Kremlin, reported that more than 90,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, seriously wounded, or gone missing in Ukraine.[500]

While combat deaths can be inferred from a variety of sources including satellite imagery of military action, civilian deaths can be more difficult. On 16 June 2022, the Ukrainian Minister of Defence told CNN that he believed that tens of thousands of Ukrainians had died, adding that he hoped that the total death toll was below 100,000.[501] By the end of June 2024, about 20,000 Ukrainians have lost limbs.[502] In the destroyed city of Mariupol alone, Ukrainian officials believe that at least 25,000 have been killed,[503][504] and bodies were still being discovered in September 2022.[505] The mayor said over 10,000 and possibly as many as 20,000 civilians died in the siege of Mariupol and that Russian forces had brought mobile cremation equipment with them when they entered the city.[506][507] Researcher Dan Ciuriak from C. D. Howe Institute in August 2022 estimates the number of killed Mariupol civilians at 25,000,[508] and an investigation by AP from the end of 2022 gives a number of up to 75,000 killed civilians in Mariupol area alone.[509][510] AFP says that "a key gap in casualty counts is the lack of information from Russian-occupied places like the port city of Mariupol, where tens of thousands of civilians are believed to have died".[511] According to a recent study by Human Rights Watch and two other organizations, there were at least 8,034 excess deaths in Mariupol between March 2022 and February 2023.[512] The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reports similar issues and believed that the true civilian casualty numbers were significantly higher than it has been able to confirm.[513]

In the Russian military during the invasion, Russia's ethnic minorities have been suffering disproportionately high casualties. In October 2022, the Russian regions with the highest death tolls were Dagestan, Tuva and Buryatia, all minority regions. In February 2024, six out of ten Russian regions with the highest mortality rates in Ukraine were located in Siberia and the far east, and ethnic minorities continuing outsized casualty rates prompted analysts to warn that the situation will lead to long-term destructive impacts on these communities.[514][515][516][517][518] According to Western officials, about 1,200 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in Ukraine every day in May and June 2024.[519] Latvia-based news outlet Meduza estimated that up to 140,000 Russian soldiers had died in the war by the end of June 2024.[520]

In August 2024, Haaretz estimated 172,000 people had died in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[521] In September 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported that there were now one million Ukrainians and Russians who were killed or wounded.[522] The Journal took note of how the number of casualties impacts the two countries' shrinking prewar populations.[522]

Prisoners of war

Official and estimated numbers of prisoners of war (POW) have varied.[543] On 24 February, Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the US, said that a platoon of the 74th Guards from Kemerovo Oblast had surrendered, saying they were unaware that they had been brought to Ukraine and ordered to kill Ukrainians.[544] Russia claimed to have captured 572 Ukrainian soldiers as of 2 March 2022,[545] while Ukraine said it held 562 Russian soldiers as of 20 March.[546] It also released one soldier for five of its own and exchanged another nine for the detained mayor of Melitopol.[547]

Ukrainian soldiers released during the prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia on 6 May 2023

On 24 March 2022, 10 Russian and 10 Ukrainian soldiers, as well as 11 Russians and 19 Ukrainian civilian sailors, were exchanged.[548] On 1 April, 86 Ukrainian servicemen were exchanged[549] for an unknown number of Russian troops.[550] The Independent on 9 June 2022 cited an intelligence estimate of more than 5,600 Ukrainian soldiers captured, while the Russian servicemen held prisoner fell from 900 in April to 550 after several prisoner exchanges.

A 25 August 2022 report by the Humanitarian Research Lab of the Yale School of Public Health identified some 21 filtration camps for Ukrainian "civilians, POWs, and other personnel" in the vicinity of Donetsk oblast. Imaging of one of these, Olenivka prison, found two sites with disturbed earth consistent with "potential graves."[551] Kaveh Khoshnood, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, said: "Incommunicado detention of civilians is more than a violation of international humanitarian law—it represents a threat to the public health of those currently in the custody of Russia and its proxies." Conditions described by freed prisoners include exposure, insufficient access to sanitation, food and water, cramped conditions, electrical shocks and physical assault.[551]

In late 2022, as Russian casualties exceeded 50,000, the Russian army introduced barrier troops. The U.K. defence ministry stated that these are units that threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives. In March 2023, Russian soldiers filmed a video addressed to President Putin where they stated that after suffering casualties, they attempted to return to their headquarters but were denied evacuation by their superiors. They stated that barrier troops were placed behind them threatening to "destroy them".[552] In particular, Storm-Z units have been reported to be "kept in line" by barrier troops.[553]

In March 2023, UN human rights commissioner Volker Türk reported that more than 90% of the Ukrainian POWs interviewed by his office, which could only include those who were released from Russia, said in Russia "they were tortured or ill-treated, notably in penitentiary facilities, including through so-called – it is an awful phrase – 'welcoming beatings' on their arrival, as well as frequent acts of torture throughout detention."[554]

In April 2023, several videos started circulating on different websites purportedly showing Russian soldiers beheading Ukrainian soldiers.[555] Zelenskyy compared Russian soldiers to "beasts" after the footage was circulated.[556] Russian officials opened an investigation of the footage shortly thereafter.[557]

War crimes and attacks on civilians

Dead bodies 8 April 2022 after the Kramatorsk railway bombing. Ukrainian investigators identified more than 600 suspected war crimes in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, some notably involving Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu.[558]

During the invasion, the Russian military and authorities have been responsible for deliberate attacks against civilian targets[559] (including strikes on hospitals and on the energy grid), massacres of civilians, abduction and torture of civilians, sexual violence,[560] forced deportation of civilians, and torture and murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war. They have also carried out many indiscriminate attacks in densely-populated areas, including with cluster bombs.[561][562][563]

According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), by December 2023, about 78% of confirmed civilian casualties had been killed in Ukrainian-controlled territory, while 21% had been killed in Russian-occupied territory.[564]

Russian forces have reportedly used banned chemical weapons at least 465 times during the war, usually as tear gas grenades.[565] The use of tear gas is banned by international Chemical Weapons Convention and considered a chemical weapon if applied by military forces during warfare.[566] On 6 April 2024, a Daily Telegraph investigation concluded that ″Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers″.[567]

In March 2024, the United Nations issued a report saying Russia may have executed more than 30 recently captured Ukrainian prisoners of war over the winter months. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights verified three incidents in which Russian servicemen executed seven Ukrainian servicemen. According to the same report, 39 of 60 released Ukrainian prisoners of war also "disclosed that they had been subjected to sexual violence during their internment, including attempted rape, threats of rape and castration, beatings or the administration of electric shocks to genitals, and repeated forced nudity, including during interrogations and to check for tattoos."[568]

Abduction of Ukrainian children

In June 2024, an investigation by the Financial Times identified four Ukrainian children on a Russian government-linked adoption website that had been abducted from state care homes. There was no mention of the Ukrainian background of the children, and one of the children was shown with a new Russian name and age that differed from their Ukrainian documents, another child was shown using a Russian version of their Ukrainian name. 17 additional matches identified by the Financial Times on the adoption website were also confirmed as Ukrainian children in a recent New York Times investigation. Ukrainian authorities estimate that nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly taken from occupied territories to Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Wayne Jordash, president of Global Rights Compliance, an international humanitarian law firm, described forcibly transferring or deporting children as war crimes, adding that when done as part of a widespread or systematic attack on a civilian population, Russia is also committing crimes against humanity.[569][570]

International arrest warrants

The International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation into possible crimes against humanity, genocide and war crimes.[571] On 17 March 2023 the ICC issued a warrant for Putin's arrest, charging him with individual criminal responsibility in the abduction of children forcibly deported to Russia.[572] It was the first time that the ICC had issued an arrest warrant for the head of state of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council[572] (the world's five principal nuclear powers).[573] Moscow has denied any involvement in war crimes, a response Vittorio Bufacchi of University College Cork says "has bordered on the farcical,"[574] and its contention that the images coming out of Bucha were fabricated "a disingenuous response born by delusional hubris, post-truth on overdrive, (that) does not merit to be taken seriously." Even the usually fractured United States Senate came together to call Putin a war criminal.[575] One of several efforts to document Russian war crimes concerns its repeated bombardment of markets and bread lines, destruction of basic infrastructure and attacks on exports and supply convoys, in a country where deliberate starvation of Ukrainians by Soviets the Holodomor still looms large in public memory.[576] Forcible deportation of populations, such as took place in Mariupol, is another area of focus, since "forced deportations and transfers are defined both as war crimes under the Fourth Geneva Convention and Protocol II and Article 8 of the Rome Statute—and as crimes against humanity—under Article 7 of the Rome Statute. As both war crimes and crimes against humanity, they have several mechanisms for individual accountability, the International Criminal Court and also, at the individual state level, universal jurisdiction and Magnitsky sanctions legislation.[577]

The ICC issued arrest warrants for military officials Sergey Kobylash, Viktor Sokolov, Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov.[578][579]

Impacts

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian impact of the invasion has been extensive and has included negative impacts on international food supplies and the 2022 food crises.[580] An estimated 6.6 million Ukrainians were internally displaced by August 2022, and about the same number were refugees in other countries.[581] The invasion has devastated the cultural heritage of Ukraine,[582] with over 500 Ukrainian cultural heritage sites, including cultural centres, theatres, museums, and churches, affected by "Russian aggression." Ukraine's Minister of Culture called it cultural genocide.[583] Deliberate destruction and looting of Ukrainian cultural heritage sites in this way is considered a war crime.[584]

The Russian attacks on civilians, causing mass civilian casualties and displacement, have been characterised as genocide and democide.[16][17][18][19] On 15 September 2023, a U.N.-mandated investigative body presented their findings that Russian occupiers had tortured Ukrainians so brutally that some of their victims died, and forced families to listen as they raped women next door.[585][19] The commission has previously said that violations committed by Russian forces in Ukraine, including the use of torture, may constitute crimes against humanity.[586]

A report by Physicians for Human Rights described Russian violence against the Ukrainian health care system as being a prominent feature of Russia's conduct during the war, documenting 707 attacks on Ukraine's health care system between 24 February and 31 December 2022. Such attacks are considered war crimes.[587]

Refugee crisis

Ukrainian refugees in Kraków protesting against the war, 6 March 2022
Protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, organised by political youth organisations in Helsinki, Finland, 26 February 2022

The war caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s;[588][589] the UN described it as the fastest growing such crisis since World War II.[590] As Russia built up military forces along the Ukrainian border, many neighbouring governments and aid organisations prepared for a mass displacement event in the weeks before the invasion. In December 2021, the Ukrainian defence minister estimated that an invasion could force three to five million people to flee their homes.[591]

In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this subsequently reached over eight million by 31 January 2023.[592][593] On 20 May, NPR reported that, following a significant influx of foreign military equipment into Ukraine, a significant number of refugees are seeking to return to regions of Ukraine which are relatively isolated from the invasion front in southeastern Ukraine.[594] However, by 3 May, another 8 million people were displaced inside Ukraine.[595]

Most refugees were women, children, elderly, or disabled.[596] Most male Ukrainian nationals aged 18 to 60 were denied exit from Ukraine as part of mandatory conscription,[597] unless they were responsible for the financial support of three or more children, single fathers, or were the parent/guardian of children with disabilities.[598] Many Ukrainian men, including teenagers, opted to remain in Ukraine voluntarily to join the resistance.[599]

According to the UN High Commission for Refugees as of 13 May 2022, there were 3,315,711 refugees in Poland, 901,696 in Romania, 594,664 in Hungary, 461,742 in Moldova, 415,402 in Slovakia, and 27,308 in Belarus, while Russia reported it had received over 800,104 refugees.[592] By 13 July 2022, over 390,000 Ukrainian refugees had arrived in the Czech Republic, where the average refugee was a woman accompanied by one child. These refugees were twice as likely to have a college degree as the Czech population as a whole.[600] Turkey has been another significant destination, registering more than 58,000 Ukrainian refugees as of 22 March, and more than 58,000 as of 25 April.[601] The EU invoked the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in its history, granting Ukrainian refugees the right to live and work in the EU for up to three years.[602] Britain has accepted 146,379 refugees, as well as extending the ability to remain in the UK for 3 years with broadly similar entitlements as the EU, three years residency and access to state welfare and services.[603]

According to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Russia has engaged in "massive deportation" of over 1.3 million Ukrainian civilians, potentially constituting crimes against humanity.[604] The OSCE and Ukraine have accused Russia of forcibly moving civilians to filtration camps in Russian-held territory, and then into Russia. Ukrainian sources have compared this policy to Soviet-era population transfers and Russian actions in the Chechen War of Independence.[605] For instance, as of 8 April, Russia claimed to have evacuated about 121,000 Mariupol residents to Russia.[605] Also, on 19 October, Russia announced the forced deportation of 60,000 civilians from areas around the line of contact in Kherson oblast.[606] RIA Novosti and Ukrainian officials said that thousands were dispatched to various centres in cities in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine,[607] from which people were sent to economically depressed regions of Russia.[608] In April, Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council secretary Oleksiy Danilov said that Russia planned to build "concentration camps" for Ukrainians in western Siberia, and likely planned to force prisoners to build new cities in Siberia.[609][h]

Long-term demographic effects

Ukrainian refugees entering Romania, 5 March 2022

Both Russia and Ukraine faced the prospect of significant population decline even before the war, having among the lowest fertility rates worldwide and considerable emigration. It is the first time that two countries with an average age above 40 have gone to war against each other.[611] Russia had a fighting-age (18- to 40-year-old) male population more than four times higher than Ukraine's and slightly higher birth rates, while the willingness to fight was more pronounced in Ukraine.[612]

Several sources have pointed out that the war is considerably worsening Ukraine's demographic crisis, making significant shrinking very likely.[613] A July 2023 study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies stated that "regardless of how long the war lasts and whether or not there is further military escalation, Ukraine is unlikely to recover demographically from the consequences of the war. Even in 2040 it will have only about 35 million inhabitants, around 20% fewer than before the war (2021: 42.8 million) and the decline in the working-age population is likely to be the most severe and far-reaching." The study took different scenarios, from a "best case" (end of the war in 2023 without much further escalation) to a "worst case" (end of the war in 2025 with further escalation) into account. Flight from war affected especially the southern and eastern regions and especially educated women of child-bearing age and their children. With an estimate of more than 20% of refugees not returning, study author Maryna Tverdostup concluded that long-term shrinking will significantly impair the conditions for reconstruction.[614]

The war in Ukraine and the associated emigration, lower birth rates and war-related casualties further deepened the demographic crisis of Russia.[615] Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.[616] The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia's population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.[617][618]

Since February 2022, hundreds of thousands of Russians have emigrated; estimates range from 370,000 to over 820,000. Combined with mobilisation, this possibly removed roughly half a million to one million working-age males from Russia's population.[619] Studies report that this will have a demographic effect, especially in Russia, that lasts much longer than the conflict, and Putin's time in office.[620]

According to BBC:[621]

They come from different walks of life. Some are journalists like us, but there are also IT experts, designers, artists, academics, lawyers, doctors, PR specialists, and linguists. Most are under 50. Many share western liberal values and hope Russia will be a democratic country one day. Some are LGBTQ+. Sociologists studying the current Russian emigration say there is evidence that those leaving are younger, better educated and wealthier than those staying. More often they are from bigger cities.

Bodies of Russian soldiers in a trench

According to Johannes Wachs, "The exodus of skilled human capital, sometimes called brain drain, out of Russia may have a significant effect on the course of the war and the Russian economy in the long run."[622] According to a survey, around 15 percent of those who left returned to Russia, either permanently or to settle their affairs.[623]

In November 2023, at the World Russian People's Council, Putin urged Russian women to have eight or more children amid increasing Russian casualties in the invasion.[624]

In July 2024, Chief of the General Staff of the British Army Roland Walker said that with the current way of fighting, it would take Russia five years to control the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia that Russia claims as its own, and it would cost Russia from 1.5 to 1.8 million casualties.[625] He said there are "no winners" in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding that "it is an utter devastation for both sides and lost generations."[626]

Environmental impact

An explosion due to the shelling of a tank filled with nitric acid during the battle of Sievierodonetsk, 31 May 2022

Based on a preliminary assessment, the war has inflicted USD 51 billion in environmental damage in Ukraine; according to a report by the Yale School of the Environment, some 687,000 tons of petrochemicals have burned as a result of shelling, while nearly 1,600 tons of pollutants have leaked into bodies of water. Hazardous chemicals have contaminated around 70 acres of soil, and likely made agricultural activities temporarily impossible.[627] Around 30% of Ukraine's land is now littered with explosives and more than 2.4 million hectares of forest have been damaged.[628]

According to Netherlands-based peace organisation PAX, Russia's "deliberate targeting of industrial and energy infrastructure" has caused "severe" pollution, and the use of explosive weapons has left "millions of tonnes" of contaminated debris in cities and towns.[629] In early June 2023, the Kakhovka Dam, under Russian occupation, was damaged, causing flooding and triggering warnings of an "ecological disaster."[630]

The Ukrainian government, international observers and journalists have described the damage as ecocide.[631] The Ukrainian government is investigating more crimes against the environment and ecocide (a crime in Ukraine).[632] Zelenskyy has met with prominent European figures (Heidi Hautala, Margot Wallstrom, Mary Robinson and Greta Thunberg) to discuss the environmental damage and how to prosecute it.[633]

According to an investigation by NGL Media published in April 2024, Russia has completely destroyed over 60,000 hectares of Ukrainian forests. The investigation stated that long-term ecological consequences may include lowering of the groundwater level, reduction of biodiversity, worsening of air quality, fire outbreaks, and rivers and ponds drying up.[634]

Economic impact

Ukraine

Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development and Trade Yulia Svyrydenko announced that for 2022 Ukraine had a 30.4% loss in their GDP.[635] The International Monetary Fund predicted that Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) would suffer a decrease from a minimum of 10% to a maximum of 35%;[636] the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development also predicted that the invasion would cause a 20% decrease of Ukraine's GDP.[637] However, the Ukrainian statistics service said that the GDP of Ukraine in 2023 grew by 5.3%.[638]

Ukraine began issuing war bonds on March 1, 2022, and the following day the Ukrainian government announced that they had raised 6.14 billion hryvnias.[639] A ban was placed in May 2022 by the European Commission on grain sales in the countries of: Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia with the only exception being if they were transiting through those countries with the ban being lifted in September 2023.[640]

The war has caused a major humanitarian crisis in Ukraine: the United Nations Development Programme calculated in March 2022 that a prolonged conflict would cause 30% of the Ukrainian population to fall below the poverty line, while a further 62% would be at risk of also falling into poverty within a year.[641]

Russia

The Russian economic ministry said that for 2022 the GDP contracted by 2.1%[642] and for 2023 Russia's government said the GDP grew by 3.6%.[643]

A price cap was placed on Russian oil by the Group of 7 (G7) at US$60 on December 5, 2022.[644] The United States banned all imports of Russia oil on March 8, 2022.[645] The European Union placed an embargo on oil products from Russia on February 5, 2023.[644] Other countries that embargoed Russian oil were: Canada, United Kingdom and Australia.[646] Russia itself issued a ban on foreign diesel sales starting on September 21, 2023, before being lifted on October 6.[647]

On April 27, 2024, it was reported that Russia was planning increases in personal income taxes and corporate taxes to help pay for the war.[648]

Peace efforts

As of January 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin made recognition of Russian sovereignty over the annexed territories (pictured) a condition for peace talks with Ukraine.[649]

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on 28 February, 3 March, and 7 March 2022, in the Gomel Region on the Belarus–Ukraine border, with further talks held on 10 March in Turkey and a fourth round of negotiations beginning 14 March.[650]

On 13 July that year, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said that peace talks were frozen and Ukraine must first recover the lost territories in the east of the country before negotiations can begin.[651] On 19 July, former Russian President and current Deputy head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, said: "Russia will achieve all its goals. There will be peace – on our terms."[652]

In late September that year, after Russian annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts of Ukraine, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would not hold peace talks with Russia while Putin was president and in early October signed a decree to ban such talks.[653][654] In late December that year, Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that any peace plan could only proceed from Ukraine's recognition of Russia's sovereignty over the regions it annexed from Ukraine in September 2022.[655][656][657] Ukraine counter proposal requires Moscow to return the occupied Ukrainian territories and pay war damages.[658] In January 2023, Putin's spokesperson Peskov said that "there is currently no prospect for diplomatic means of settling the situation around Ukraine."[659]

In May 2023, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said peace negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian War were "not possible at this moment", saying it was clear that Russia and Ukraine were "completely absorbed in this war" and each "convinced that they can win."[660]

In June 2023, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that the peace plans presented by China, Brazil and Indonesia are attempts at mediation on behalf of Russia, and "they all currently want to be mediators on Russia's side. That's why this sort of mediation currently doesn't fit for us at all because they aren't impartial."[661] He said that Ukraine was willing to accept China as a mediator only if Beijing could convince Russia to withdraw from all the territories it had occupied.[662]

In December 2023, The New York Times reported that Putin has been signaling through intermediaries since at least September 2022 that "he is open to a ceasefire that freezes the fighting along the current lines." This has been received with skepticism by Ukrainians and their country's supporters, with criticism that it could be an insincere, opportunistic public relations ploy by Russia that would give it time to rebuild its weakened army before renewing the offensive.[658][663] Such concerns have been raised since 2022.[664][665] In May 2024, Kremlin sources told Reuters that Putin wanted to avoid unpopular steps such as further nationwide mobilization and increased war spending.[666]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b The Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic were Russian-controlled puppet states, having declared their independence from Ukraine in May 2014. In 2022 they received international recognition from each other, Russia, Syria and North Korea, and some other partially recognised states. On 30 September 2022, after a referendum, Russia declared it had formally annexed both entities.
  2. ^ Belarusian territory was used by Russian forces to stage part of the invasion[1][2] and has been used to launch missiles into Ukraine.[3] See also: Belarusian involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine
  3. ^ See § Foreign involvement for more details.
  4. ^ Including military, paramilitary, and 34,000 separatist militias.
  5. ^ By early September 2022 the US had given 126 M777 howitzer cannons and over 800,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition for them.[469] By January 2023 the US had donated 250,000 more 155 mm shells to Ukraine. The US is producing 14,000 155 mm shells monthly and plans to increase production to 90,000 shells per month by 2025.[470]
  6. ^ See here for a detailed breakdown of civilian deaths by oblast, according to Ukrainian authorities.
  7. ^ The DPR said 1,285 civilians were killed and 4,243 wounded between 1 January 2022 and 22 June 2023,[533][534] of which 8 died and 23 were wounded between 1 January and 25 February 2022,[535] leaving a total of 1,277 killed and 4,220 wounded in the period of the Russian invasion.
  8. ^ Most likely, new cities meant new industrial cities in Siberia, the construction plans of which were announced by Shoigu in the fall of 2021.[610]

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Further reading

External links