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2024 Missouri gubernatorial election

The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Parson is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1] Mike Kehoe, the incumbent lieutenant governor, won the Republican nomination.

A former bellwether state, Missouri has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri is Jay Nixon, who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41% in the state's first gubernatorial election in which a Republican won by a double-digit margin since John Ashcroft's landslide re-election in 1988. Major news organizations predict the state to soundly elect another Republican for governor in 2024. [2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jay Ashcroft
Executive Branch officials
  • Donald Trump, former President of the United States (co-endorsement with Eigel and Kehoe)[8]
Statewide officials
Organizations
Bill Eigel
Executive Branch officials
  • Donald Trump, former President of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Kehoe)[8]
U.S. Representatives
Mike Kehoe
Executive Branch officials
  • Donald Trump, former President of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Eigel)[8]
Statewide officials
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Debates

Results

Results by county:
Kehoe
  •   >60%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Eigel
  •   >50%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ashcroft
  •   30–40%

Kehoe secured a modest victory, carrying 88 counties, as well as the city of St. Louis. He performed the best in Shelby County, while Eigel, the runner-up, earned his best result in Grundy County. Finally, Ashcroft narrowly surpassed Kehoe in Greene County.[22]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Endorsements

Mike Hamra
Newspapers
Crystal Quade
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 40 state legislators[29]
Organizations
Labor unions
  • IBEW Missouri State Conference[32]
  • Missouri AFL-CIO[33]
  • SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council[34]

Polling

Results

Results by county:
Quade
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Hamra
  •   50-60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
  •   20–30%
Tie
  •   20–30%

Quade led the race, winning slightly more than half of the votes, as well as 90 county equivalents out of 115.[g] She performed the best in Greene County, where the city of Springfield is located. Conversely, Hamra recorded his best result in Harrison County, with some more than 50% of the vote. Morrison failed to win a single county, but still managed to tie Pemiscot County, earning as many votes there as Hamra did.[35]

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade
Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade
Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra
Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra
Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra

Results

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Darrell McClanahan III with 7%; Amber Thomsen with 4%; Jeremy Gundel with 2%; Robert Olson, Chris Wright, and Darren Grant with 1%
  3. ^ Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen and Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant and Jeremy Gundel with 0%
  4. ^ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant and Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel and Chris Wright with 1%
  5. ^ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Missouri is made up of 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll commissioned by the Missouri Scout
  2. ^ Poll commissioned by Ashcroft's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the American Dream PAC, which supports Kehoe
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Committee for Liberty PAC, which supports Ashcroft
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  3. ^ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  4. ^ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
  5. ^ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  7. ^ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  8. ^ a b c Bayless, Kacen (July 27, 2024). "Donald Trump hedges endorsement for Missouri governor, backs three major GOP candidates". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  9. ^ "Kehoe in fundraising lead in Missouri GOP governor's race". Fox2Now. June 25, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
  10. ^ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  11. ^ "Missouri Republican slammed for 'racist bigotry' in anti-immigrant campaign ad". The Independent. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  12. ^ Baechle, Shea (July 18, 2024). "Gov. Parson officially endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". KRCG. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  13. ^ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  14. ^ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  15. ^ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri". Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  16. ^ a b c "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info. November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  17. ^ a b Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  18. ^ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  19. ^ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
  20. ^ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  21. ^ Lamons, Jarett (June 19, 2024). "Missouri Hospital Association endorses Mike Kehoe". The Missouri Times. Retrieved June 29, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  23. ^ a b "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  24. ^ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  25. ^ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  26. ^ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  27. ^ "Editorial: Our endorsements in Missouri's GOP and Democratic gubernatorial primaries". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  28. ^ a b c "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  29. ^ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  30. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  31. ^ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  32. ^ Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  33. ^ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  34. ^ Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  35. ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  36. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  37. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  38. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  39. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  40. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  41. ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites