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Encuesta de opinión a nivel estatal para las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016

Las encuestas estatales para las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016 incluyen lo siguiente. Las encuestas que se enumeran aquí proporcionan datos preliminares sobre las encuestas de opinión entre el candidato demócrata , el candidato republicano , el candidato libertario y el candidato verde . Antes de las convenciones de los partidos, se incluyeron en las encuestas a los candidatos presuntos. Las encuestas estatales no se realizan en todos los estados para las elecciones debido a varios factores. Por lo general, se realizan más encuestas en los estados que se consideran estados clave, ya que se presta más atención a los resultados. Para determinar un empate estadístico, se aplica al resultado de cada candidato el margen de error proporcionado por la fuente de la encuesta.

Encuesta más reciente

Inmediatamente antes de la elección, Hillary Clinton tenía una ventaja de votos entre los estados encuestados recientemente. Las encuestas estatales con resultados fuera del margen de error mostraron 213 votos electorales potenciales para Clinton y 162 votos electorales potenciales para Donald Trump. En 14 estados y dos distritos del Congreso (150 votos electorales), los resultados para Clinton y Trump estaban dentro del margen de error. Para los dos estados y un distrito sin encuestas recientes, un estado (6 votos electorales) votó por Mitt Romney en la elección de 2012 , mientras que un estado y distrito (7 votos electorales) votaron por Barack Obama. Los candidatos de terceros partidos, como Jill Stein y Gary Johnson , también fueron incluidos en muchas encuestas estatales. No han recibido un apoyo en las encuestas estatales que supere a los dos candidatos de los principales partidos. El candidato independiente Evan McMullin estaba empatado con Donald Trump en el estado de Utah , pero solo ha sido incluido en un número muy limitado de encuestas estatales.

Alabama

9 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 60%–39%
( republicano en 2012 ) 61%–38%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 62%–34%

Alaska

3 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 59%–38%
( republicano en 2012 ) 55%–41%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 51%-37%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Arizona

11 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 53%–45%
( republicano en 2012 ) 53%–44%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 48%-45%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Arkansas

6 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 59%–39%
( republicano en 2012 ) 61%–37%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 61%-34%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

California

55 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 61%–37%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 60%–37%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 62%-32%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Colorado

9 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 54%–45%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 51%–46%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 48%-43%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Connecticut

7 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 61%–38%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 58%–41%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 55%-41%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Delaware

3 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 62%–37%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 59%–40%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 53%-42%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Distrito de Columbia

3 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 92%–7%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 91%–7%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 91%-4%

No se realizó ninguna encuesta después del 1 de agosto de 2016

Florida

29 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 51%–48%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 50%–49%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 49%-48%

Georgia

16 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 52%–47%
( republicano en 2012 ) 53%–45%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 51%-46%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Hawai

4 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 72%–27%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 71%–28%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 62%-30%

No se realizó ninguna encuesta en 2016

Idaho

4 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 61%–36%
( republicano en 2012 ) 64%–32%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 59%-28%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Illinois

20 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 62%–37%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 58%–41%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 56%-39%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Indiana

11 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 50%–49%
( republicano en 2012 ) 54%–44%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 57%-38%

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Iowa

6 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 54%–44%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 52%–46%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 51%-42%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Kansas

6 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 56%–42%
( republicano en 2012 ) 60%–38%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 57%-36%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Kentucky

8 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 57%–41%
( republicano en 2012 ) 60%–38%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 63%-33%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Luisiana

8 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 59%–40%
( republicano en 2012 ) 58%–41%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 58%-38%

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Maine

4 votos electorales (el voto estatal vale 2 EV; el 1.º y 2.º distrito del Congreso valen 1 EV cada uno)
( demócrata en 2008 ) 58%–40%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 56%–41%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 48%-45%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Maryland

10 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 62%–36%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 62%–36%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 60%-34%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Massachusetts

11 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 62%–36%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 61%–38%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 60%-33%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Michigan

16 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 57%–41%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 54%–45%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 48%-47%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Minnesota

10 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 54%–44%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 53%–45%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 46%–45%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Misisipí

6 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 56%–43%
( republicano en 2012 ) 55%–44%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 58%-40%

No se realizó ninguna encuesta después del 1 de septiembre de 2016

Misuri

10 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 49,4%–49,2%
( republicano en 2012 ) 53%–44%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 57%-38%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Montana

3 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 49%–47%
( republicano en 2012 ) 55%–42%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 56%-36%

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Nebraska

5 votos electorales (el voto estatal vale 2 EV; los distritos congresionales 1.º, 2.º y 3.º valen 1 EV cada uno)
( republicano en 2008 ) 57%–42%
( republicano en 2012 ) 60%–38%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 59%-34%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Nevada

6 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 55%–43%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 52%–46%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 48%-46%

Carrera de dos vías

De tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Nuevo Hampshire

4 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 54%–45%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 52%–46%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 48%-47%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Nueva Jersey

14 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 57%–42%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 58%–41%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 55%-41%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Nuevo Méjico

5 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 57%–42%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 53%–43%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 48%-40%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Nueva York

29 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 63%–36%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 63%–35%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 59%-37%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carolina del Norte

15 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 50%–49%
( republicano en 2012 ) 50%–48%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 50%-46%

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Dakota del Norte

3 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 53%–45%
( republicano en 2012 ) 58%–39%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 63%-27%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Ohio

18 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 51%–47%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 51%–48%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 52%-44%

Carrera de dos vías

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Carrera de cinco vías

Oklahoma

7 votos electorales
( republicano en 2008 ) 66%–34%
( republicano en 2012 ) 67%–33%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 65%-29%

Carrera de tres vías

Oregón

7 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 57%–40%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 54%–42%

Ganador
( demócrata en 2016 ) 50%-39%

Carrera de cuatro vías

Pensilvania

20 votos electorales
( demócrata en 2008 ) 54%–44%
( demócrata en 2012 ) 52%–47%

Ganador
( Republicano en 2016 ) 48%-47%

Carrera de tres vías

Carrera de cuatro vías

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–35%
(Democratic in 2012) 63%–35%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 54%-39%

Four-way race

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 55%–44%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 55%-41%

Three-way race

Four-way race

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%
(Republican in 2012) 58%–40%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 62%-32%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%
(Republican in 2012) 59%–39%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 61%-35%

Four-way race

Texas

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2012) 57%–41%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 52%-43%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Four-way race

Utah

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%
(Republican in 2012) 73%–25%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 46%-28%

Four-way race

Five-way race

Six-way race

Vermont

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%
(Democratic in 2012) 67%–31%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 56%-30%

Four-way race

Virginia

13 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2012) 51%–47%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 50%-44%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Four-way race

Five-way race

Washington

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%
(Democratic in 2012) 56%–41%

Winner
(Democratic in 2016) 54%-38%

Two-way race

Four-way race

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2012) 62%–36%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 69%-26%

Two-way race

Three-way race

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%
(Democratic in 2012) 53%–46%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 47%-46%

Three-way race

Four-way race

Wyoming

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2008) 65%–33%
(Republican in 2012) 69%–28%

Winner
(Republican in 2016) 67%-22%

Four-way race

See also

General election polling

Democratic primary polling

Republican primary polling

Older polling

Notes

  1. ^ These results reflect only polls done on or after September 1, 2016.

References

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