Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina with a 49.93% plurality over Biden's 48.59% vote share (a margin of 1.34%), making him only the second Republican incumbent ever to carry North Carolina and lose re-election after George H. W. Bush in 1992. Trump also became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney's 2.04% margin over Barack Obama in 2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Donald Trump won with under 50% of the vote.[a] In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in 2008 and furthermore, it had last voted more Republican than neighboring Georgia in 2000.
Trump's victory was, alongside his victory (and actual improvement over 2016) in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data website FiveThirtyEight's election forecast had Biden up in both states,[3] albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websites Inside Elections, Sabato Crystal Ball, The Economist, and ABC News all had Biden favored in the state.
Primary elections
Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases of COVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.
The North Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign of Bill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer.[8] Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot.[9]
Libertarian primary
Green primary
Constitution primary
General election
Predictions
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
June 1 – October 31, 2020
January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020
January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019
Results
By county
By congressional district
Trump won 8 of 13 congressional districts.[31]
Analysis
The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), and Buncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively.[32] Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976. He also flipped Nash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.
Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first since Cleveland in 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since James Buchanan in 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.[citation needed]
^There were three states in which Biden won with under 50% of the vote – Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
^ a b cCandidate withdrew during early voting, shortly before the date of the election.
^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q rKey: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^ a b c d e f g hStandard VI response
^"Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^ a b c dIf only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
^ a b c"Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
^Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
^ a b c d e f g"Some other candidate" with 2%
^"Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
^ a b c d e fWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
^ a b"Someone else" with 6%
^"None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
^ a b"Someone else" with 1%
^"Some other candidate" with 2%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
^ a bNo voters
^Blankenship (C) with 2%
^ a b"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
^ a b c dIncludes "Refused"
^ a b c"Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
^ a b c"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
^ a b c"Another candidate" with 3%
^ a bResults generated with high Democratic turnout model
^ a bResults generated with high Republican turnout model
^"Another candidate" with 1%
^Blankenship (C) with no voters
^"Other third party" with 2%
^"Someone else" with 0.6%; Blankenship (C) with 0.2%
^ a bBlankenship (C) with 0%
^ a b c d e fAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^"Some other candidate" with 1%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
^ a b"Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
^If only Biden and Trump were candidates
^ a b"Someone else" with 2%
^"Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
^Blankenship (C), "No one" and "Other candidate" with no voters
^With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
^With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
^"Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
^ a b"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
^"Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
^ a b c"Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
^"Someone else/third party" with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 0%
^With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
^"Another candidate" with 2%
^ a bBlankenship (C) with 1%
^"Refused" with 1.4%; "Other" with 0.4%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
^"None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
^"Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "refused" with 0%
^"Someone else" with 1%; Blankenship (C) with 0.5%
^"Some other candidate" with 3%
^Would not vote with 1%
^Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
^"Other/not sure" with 4%
^"No one" with 1%; Blankenship and "Other candidate" with <1%
^With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
^With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
^Blankenship (C) and "Other" with 0%
^Blankenship (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Other" with 0%
^"Other candidate" with 3%
^Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
^"Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
^"Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
^"Some other candidate" with 7%
^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
^"Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
^"Third party/write-in" with 3%
^"Other candidate" with 7%
^"Someone else" with 4%
^"Someone else" with 5%
^ a b c d eThe poll does not have a separate listing for this entry, which is instead added into the 'Other' grouping.
^Refused/no answer with 0.2%
^ a b c dRefused/no answer with 0.1%
^"Other/it depends" with 6%; "Don't know" with 3%
^"It is time for someone else to be President" with 51% as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected if he is the Republican nominee"
^Poll sponsored by the Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank
^ a bPoll sponsored by End Citizens United, a group that has exclusively endorsed Democrats
References
^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^Dovere, Edward-Isaac (July 18, 2017). "Can Roy Cooper Show Democrats How to Win Again?". Politico. Retrieved August 28, 2017.
^Moody, Aaron; Specht, Paul A. (March 29, 2018). "Roy Cooper for president? 'I'm sure I'll get some calls.'". The News & Observer. Retrieved July 5, 2018.
^"NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
^"Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. August 17, 2020. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
^News and Observer
^WRAL.com
^"NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
^"LOCAL ELECTIONS". ABC 11. March 3, 2020. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
^ a b"N.C. Board of Elections Approves 2020 Presidential Primary Ballots". Spectrum News. December 20, 2019. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
^"PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE - GRE (VOTE FOR 1)". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
^"PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE - CST (VOTE FOR 1)". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
^"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
^"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
^David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
^"Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
^"2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^"ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
^"2020 Election Forecast". fivethirtyeight.com. August 12, 2020. Retrieved October 22, 2020.
^"November 03, 2020 General Election Results by Contest" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections.
^"Daily Kos Elections 2012, 2016 & 2020 presidential election results for congressional districts used in 2020 elections". www.dailykos.com.
^"North Carolina Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 11, 2020.
^"North Carolina 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
^"North Carolina Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
Further reading
David Weigel; Lauren Tierney (August 23, 2020), "The six political states of North Carolina", Washingtonpost.com, archived from the original on September 4, 2020