stringtranslate.com

2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominees, incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominees, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

New Hampshire is by far the most fiscally conservative state in New England, and its population has a strong disdain for taxes, historically giving Republicans an edge in its state office elections. However, like the rest of the region, it is very liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, and thus the Democratic Party has dominated in its federal elections in recent years. Although the state came extremely close to voting for Trump in 2016, polls throughout the 2020 campaign showed a clear Biden lead, and prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was favored to win.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering the votes of 58% of white women, and 69% of unmarried women.[4] Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions,[4] a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.

Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Contrary to earlier projections however, New Hampshire Republicans took control of both the executive and legislative branches of the New Hampshire government. Republicans flipped the previously Democrat-held New Hampshire state Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans also gained control of the state's Executive Council, and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu was reelected for a third term with 65% of the vote.[5] Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.

Primary elections

The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[6]

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[10]

Libertarian primary

Mail-in ballots were due by January 11, at the state convention. The primary was tabulated using Bucklin voting. Percentages shown are percentage of ballots cast.[16][17]

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary


Aggregate polls

Polls

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Analysis

Biden flipped the counties of Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Sullivan, of which Hillsborough (which houses the state's largest city of Manchester) and Sullivan had voted for Barack Obama twice before switching to Trump in 2016, then flipping back into the Democratic column in 2020. Biden also significantly expanded Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead of 2,736 votes (0.37%) to 59,267 votes (7.35%).

Edison exit polls

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Including 157 write-in votes
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c "Another candidate" with 0%
  7. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ Standard VI response
  13. ^ Hawkins (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  14. ^ With only Biden, Trump and "Another candidate" as options
  15. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  16. ^ Includes "Refused"
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  18. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
  21. ^ a b Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  22. ^ a b c d Data not yet released
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  24. ^ Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
  25. ^ Would not vote with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization

References

  1. ^ DiStaso, John (November 6, 2020). "More than 73 percent of NH's voting age population cast ballots, resulting in record turnout". WMUR. Retrieved February 16, 2021.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ a b "New Hampshire Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "Republicans unexpectedly gain control of N.H. State government".
  6. ^ Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
  7. ^ Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". KRCR. Associated Press.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  9. ^ "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  10. ^ "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
  11. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  12. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  13. ^ "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  14. ^ "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  15. ^ Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.
  16. ^ "Results – 2020 Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 14, 2020. Archived from the original on February 27, 2020. Retrieved January 14, 2020.
  17. ^ Dance, George J. (January 14, 2020). "Strange doings in New Hampshire". The Nolan Chart. Archived from the original on January 15, 2020. Retrieved January 14, 2020.
  18. ^ a b "Congrats to Vermin Supreme for winning the LPNH Presidential Preference Primary!". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 11, 2020. Retrieved January 11, 2020 – via Facebook.com.
  19. ^ a b "Results – 2020 Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 14, 2020. Archived from the original on February 27, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  24. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  26. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  27. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  30. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  32. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  34. ^ 270 to Win
  35. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  36. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  37. ^ American Research Group
  38. ^ University of New Hampshire
  39. ^ Saint Anselm College
  40. ^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
  41. ^ University of New Hampshire
  42. ^ Suffolk University/Boston Globe
  43. ^ Saint Anselm College
  44. ^ Emerson College
  45. ^ American Research Group
  46. ^ University of New Hampshire
  47. ^ Pulse Opinion Research/Center for American Greatness
  48. ^ YouGov/UMass Lowell
  49. ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  50. ^ Saint Anselm College
  51. ^ a b c University of New Hampshire
  52. ^ Saint Anselm College
  53. ^ Saint Anselm College
  54. ^ a b c d University of New Hampshire
  55. ^ a b c d AtlasIntel
  56. ^ a b McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal
  57. ^ a b c d Marist College/NBC News
  58. ^ a b c d e f g h Emerson College
  59. ^ a b c d Saint Anselm College
  60. ^ a b c d e Emerson College
  61. ^ a b c d e Gravis Marketing
  62. ^ a b c d e f g Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  63. ^ a b c d e American Research Group
  64. ^ a b c Praecones Analytica
  65. ^ Inside Sources
  66. ^ RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10
  67. ^ Praecones Analytica
  68. ^ Suffolk University
  69. ^ University of New Hampshire/CNN
  70. ^ "President and Vice-President of the United States - excel". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  71. ^ "President Write-ins - pdf". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  72. ^ "New Hampshire 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  73. ^ "New Hampshire Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

Further reading

External links